Josh Felman

Explained: Has India's exchange rate regime changed for the worse?

Ever since the liberalisation in 1991, the RBI has pursued a flexible exchange rate policy

Union Budget 2024-25: Three macro puzzles and policy implications

Why is consumption soft, employment growth weak, and core inflation low, when the economy is apparently growing strongly?

GST revenues: The fate of the compensation cess amid Centre-state row

There's no reason for the cess to be retained in its current form. That's because the cess rates themselves are monstrously complicated, varying not only in magnitude but also according to end-use

GST's revenue performance: Centre's sacrifice for cooperative federalism

Over the past few years, most commentators have rightly emphasised the tensions in Centre-state fiscal relations, pointing especially to the Centre's repeated recourse to non-sharable cesses

What does the NSS data imply for GDP estimates?

What can we learn from the latest survey? Before we answer this question, we need to recognise the limitations of comparing NSS figures with the ones from the NIA

Understanding GST revenue performance

Contrary to belief, GST underperformed the old tax regime in its initial years but has now begun to exceed expectations, six years after implementation

Is the economy surging or decelerating: Understanding India's growth rate

The nominal figures track the real numbers until the first half of FY23, but then decline by a whopping 14 percentage points over the past three quarters

India should quit the Brics

Arvind Subramanian is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Josh Felman is a principal at JH Consulting

India's welfare balm

While many analysts have estimated India's potential annual GDP growth at 7-8 per cent, the most recent figures indicate a subdued rate of 4.4 per cent

How is the Indian economy really doing?

All the heady optimism has overlooked the vulnerable state of the macro-economy. Caution, not complacency, is the more appropriate sentiment for now

Globalisation shocks that could help India

The long-term consequences of the shocks could be very serious for China

GST: Cooler heads for constructive ends

To be sure, the cooperative spirit has gone missing since about 2018, reflecting the heavy-handedness of the Centre, not just on the GST but across a range of issues

The West has got its Russia sanctions wrong

The ramifications of this decision may not be visible today, but the damage will become apparent over time

India's size illusion

India has struggled to generate adequate military resources

The Year of the Renminbi?

China has been the world's largest trader since 2013, its economy is now larger than that of the US in purchasing power parity terms, and soon it will pull ahead in terms of market exchange rates, too

Post-Covid federalism: How Centre can build and keep trust with states

Automatic, counter-cyclical transfers from the Centre to states can build trust and prevent trust from being corroded

Understanding Budget policy

Its objectives are clear. But the reality in recent years has not cooperated with the government's plans

Could consumption really have fallen?

The leaked NSS consumption numbers have provoked a debate. While arguments by various sides are not really convincing there are some broad lessons

Losing steam: The coming China shock

Its internal debts are mounting to unsustainable heights, and domestic investment levels have passed the point of diminishing returns

Quasi-universal basic rural income: The way forward

The authors propose an alternative to build a new rural India where a basic income, regardless of agricultural vagaries, will be guaranteed