Aditi Nayar

GDP growth likely bottomed out; inflation to prevent December RBI rate cut

The CPI inflation for Q3 FY2025 is expected to overshoot the MPC's estimate of 4.8 per cent for the quarter by at least 60-70 bps

Budget 2024: Fiscal marksmanship on display; over to implementation

On the personal income tax front, the Budget brought in some modest tweaks, which should support sentiment and consumption for salaried individuals

Tax overhaul, populism: ICRA on proposals that Modi 3.0 Budget must avoid

The Union Budget for fiscal 2024-25 (FY25) will be presented on July 23, 2024

Run-up to RBI monetary policy review: Expect another hawkish pause

The surge in the headline CPI inflation has expectedly proved to be transient. The print had cooled off to 6.8 per cent in August 2023 from the 15-month high of 7.4 per cent in July

Eco Survey paints a bright medium-term outlook after an unpredictable year

It says once the global shocks of the pandemic and 2022's unpleasant spike in commodity prices fade away, the Indian economy is likely to record a faster growth during the rest of this decade

MPC rate hikes likely to continue till CPI inflation recedes below 6%

Another rate hike predicted for September 2022, even if the quantum is as small as 10 bps

Ending of rate hikes in US to stem sharp rupee depreciation

With front-loaded rate hikes by the US Fed, the US dollar will remain relatively strong in the immediate term

RBI monetary policy review: Further repo rate hikes clearly on the cards

The Governor's reminder that the repo rate is still below the pre-pandemic level served as a clear signal that more rate hikes lie ahead

RBI's surprise rate hike signals pivot to inflation management completed

The MPC has focused on preventing inflationary expectations from un-anchoring in an increasingly uncertain environment.

RBI monetary policy signals change in stance for June 2022

Next RBI monetary policy stance likely to be followed by shallow rate hike cycle, with the repo rate being increased by 25 bps each in August and September 2022.

FY22 GDP estimates: Economic growth weighed down by mfg, construction

While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in the quarter from 8.5% in Q2FY22, NSO's initial estimates are sorely below our expectation of a 6.2% YoY expansion in that quarter

Festive season trends, Q2 GDP growth will set the stage for policy stance

We remain cautious that reviving demand could embolden pricing power, allowing a faster transmission of the supply-side pressures to core inflation

Why GDP expansion by 20.1% in Q1 of FY22 is misleading

Distorted base of last year's stringent nationwide lockdown obscured devastation of second wave of Covid-19 that came with staggered state-wise curbs in Q1 of current fiscal

Whatever it takes: But for how long?

The Governor clearly stated that the RBI remains in 'whatever it takes' mode, referring to the desire to support the fledgling recovery

RBI policy: No explicit time frame for continuation of accommodative stance

The monetary policy stance is expected to remain accommodative for most of 2021, until a dramatic improvement in vaccine coverage quells uncertainty regarding the growth outlook

India's Q4 GDP number: Pick-up in volumes underpinned improved growth

Overall, GDP and GVA contracted by 7.3 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively, in FY21, in line with our forecasts (-7.3 per cent and -6.3 per cent, respectively)

MPC to maintain accommodative stance at least in the next two reviews

The disconcertingly sharp new wave of Covid-19 cases has reignited uncertainty regarding the economic outlook in the immediate term

Q3 GDP growth number: Covid-driven recession over, double dip ahead

GDP is implicitly projected by NSO to slip back into contraction of 1.1% in Q4FY21. This appears to be an outcome of the back-ended release in the Govt's subsidies that is on the anvil in Q4

Capital outlay should support a higher pace of GDP expansion in FY22

The fiscal deficit of the government of India has increased sharply to 9.5 per cent of GDP in the Revised Estimates for FY21, relative to the budgeted target of 3.5 per cent

Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 to boost sentiment and solidify economic revival

The package offers a variety of measures to boost capital spending and infra investment, incentivise job creation and also provide support to the farm and non-farm portion of the rural economy