Current account is key Africa factor in 2015

Continental triage

Reuters

LatAm divergence

Bitcoin's defects will hasten its demise in 2015

Geek's gold

Steady US job growth poses gruelling wage riddle

Hell to pay

More Dilma Rousseff will be no carnival for Brazil

Dilmore

Road to US jobs recovery leads to parts unknown

Fairy-tale ending?

Business Standard

Harvard's new fund boss needs a California lesson

Thought required

S&P 500 at 2,000 invites "new normal" thinkingBeware new paradigms. The S&P 500 Index's first trades above 2,000 on Monday invite the idea of a new normal in markets. The price-to-earnings ratio is under 20, only moderately above average, and interest rates remain low. But US earnings are at a peak relative to GDP. Assume they adjust back to the long-term norm, and the stock benchmark would be a third lower.The average PE ratio for the S&P since its inception has been just above 15. The current valuation multiple is higher, but still well short of past peaks. That suggests there could be further to run, though a reversion to the long-term average would leave the index only slightly above 1,500, down almost a quarter from the current level.Low interest rates also support continued share-price buoyancy. One theory known as the Fed model postulates that the earnings yield on stocks should be equal to the long-term Treasury bond yield. The model largely held during the 1990s, a

Paradigm shift

Boons and boondoggles

How to avoid the emerging-market bond trap

Emerging winners

Steady US jobs one facet of new rockier normalSteady US jobs growth is just one facet of a new, rockier normal. July's employment report on Friday showed 209,000 nonfarm jobs added and the slightest of upticks to 6.2 per cent in the unemployment rate. That's decent if unspectacular job creation, and other data are solidifying as well. Yet Argentina's default, conflicts in trouble spots and a trade setback are among the darker clouds. Thursday's selloff in US stocks and its echo around the world hints at what could happen if investors refocus on the bad stuff.A second-quarter US GDP rebound at an annual growth rate of 4 per cent was reported on Tuesday, and on Wednesday the Federal Reserve's statement sounded more bullish on the economy than before. The second-quarter earnings season is looking better than analysts have been expecting, with year-on-year growth in profit at S&P 500 Index companies running above 9 per cent so far.The geopolitical picture is, however, less encouraging.

Good, bad and ugly

US GDP gyrations obscure still slow, steady growth

Ignore the blips

US corporate capex may be as good as it gets

Capex blues

Global investors can help avoid another 1914

Avoidable Armageddon

Then and now

US jobs' full circle shows slow pace of upturn

Crawling to stand still

Noise in US GDP revision also contains a signal

Blips count, too

Lots of US jobs - just not yet productive ones

Productivity problem

US GDP stumble makes more noise than news

Bump in the road

US banks wasting Fed's $2.7 trillion of stimulus

Stagnant puddle

New gross output stat shows merit of US Federal Reserve stimulus