Neelkanth Mishra

The policy inversion

With global economic policy preferences being the opposite of those seen after the 2008-09 crisis, so should be the implications

India's quantitative tightening

The persistent gap between credit and deposit growth has perplexed many. Could it be due to shortfalls in money injection by the RBI?

The tap still left open

Continuing fiscal laxity in the US means monetary policy must do more of the inflation fighting, increasing risks of financial accidents

A potent channel

Recent evidence of a sharp slowdown in house construction in major markets poses downside risks to global growth

The accidents have started

The failure of SVB was due to idiosyncratic reasons, but shows how higher rates can expose fault lines in unforeseen places

What will drive global growth?

Ageing populations are likely to slow capital formation in North Asia, hurting global growth

Asia the saver

The global savings glut may persist as, despite ageing rapidly, Asia can continue to be a net saver

Labour quality can trump quantity

Availability of industrial labour is less of a challenge than widely believed. Parents with fewer children have healthier and more educated ones

A narrow window of opportunity

Thailand and China are at risk of growing old before they grow rich; India must grow its GDP at 8-9 per cent or more to avoid that fate

Capital inflows: The perils of a bad neighbourhood

India's strong medium-term growth outlook may not suffice for foreign capital to flow, as existing channels that bring global savings to India face turbulence

Turbulence ahead: A slowdown in global demand is underway

Pricing risks could be next, but monetary conditions can remain tight

The risk of accidents

Growth downturns can expose vulnerabilities that increase market risks

The inflation spectrometer

Even as some inflationary impulses fade, others of more recent vintage pose new and bigger risks; one must disentangle multiple strands to reduce risk of policy errors

Building buffers and using them

Letting the rupee weaken may be the least bad option; raising interest rates to slow imports is too blunt an instrument

After a sprint, a pause for breath

2021 not only saw record funding creating a third of the country's unicorns, but also the first major listings, providing new valuation anchors

Risks of imported energy get real

If energy prices remain this high for a year, they could shave 3 per cent off India's GDP, weaken the currency

The energy headwind

The surge in energy prices is a concern for growth; even if temporary, a reminder of India's strategic dependence on imported energy

How to eat the world

Should the next 5 million software engineers be hired and trained like the first 5 million?

Signals through the fog

Logistical disruptions are pushing apparent demand away from real demand, exacerbating the bull-whip effect

Food, the switch and the wardrobe

Opening up in the US may switch spending to services and wardrobe restocking, and de-stock overflowing pantries