Sonal Varma

Opportunity trumps tariffs: Navigating the web of Trump's trade policies

In a world where Trump 2.0 is negative for most countries, the mixed impact of Mr Trump's tariff web could still make India a relative winner

India's economy faces slower growth in 2025, macro risks intensify

In 2025, macro policies will need to support domestic demand, but without compromising on macrofinancial stability risks

Monetary policy needs recalibration due to domestic reasons, not the Fed

Early reports suggest softer consumer demand at the beginning of the festive season, with discounts and incentives offered by automakers and online platforms to boost sales and clear inventory

July inflation print did not cause any celebrations. Why it should have

The balance of risk around growth and inflation is shifting. Inflation risks are overstated, while emerging growth signals appear soft

RBI monetary policy: The tide is turning

The RBI's monetary policy should be driven by domestic factors and not the Fed

India among Asia's new flying geese

It is placed well, both economically and geopolitically, to benefit from the China plus one strategy

RBI monetary policy: When boring is exciting

India, when compared to the US, has been rather boring, albeit in a good way. In contrast to the volatility in the US markets and macro data, India has been a beacon of stability

Growth momentum continues, but private consumption and capex weak

Momentum may not sustain into next year; policymakers should stay vigilant and build buffers

Conflicts and macro threaten India's firewalls

Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key for sustained growth in a rapidly changing global landscape

Building resilience for the long game

The Budget should focus on keeping the domestic house in order. If it manages to do so, then India could attract large capital inflows once the global shocks fade

Macro policy for uncertain times

External storms are morphing into hurricanes. India is in a relatively better position than many other countries, but this period of heightened volatility will require agility and clarity on policy

Riding out the storm

External shocks and stagflation risks require optimal policy responses

RBI monetary policy: Pursuing growth in times of high inflation

The RBI officials stated the MPC believes that inflation is 'not persistent' and that there is 'no thinking' about policy normalisation

RBI monetary policy: How to ease without cutting rates

The path ahead also remains uncertain because it is closely tied to the path of the pandemic curve

Fixing the growth puzzle

Cyclical responses won't fix the structural constraints, and structural reforms don't address a cyclical slowdown

Run-up to monetary policy: Neutral is best gear for now, says Sonal Varma

The divergence between low food and elevated core inflation continues

To hike or not: Which way will the Monetary Policy Committee swing?

Recent developments suggest tighter monetary policy is inevitable; the question is one of quantum and timing

Growth indices suggest two-speed recovery is narrowing

Nomura has created a set of proprietary indices that answer questions on the direction of economic data and the near-term monetary policy path