Future of agriculture in India: Is the nation ready?

The farmers’ crisis arising out of two consecutive years of deficit monsoon has put a lot of focus on the state of Indian agriculture and its future readiness recently. The normally urban tinted media has also for once turned its attention to the problems afflicting India’s agriculture sector, and distress of farmers who are disproportionately dependent for their livelihood on nature’s benevolence.

The rising food prices over the past two years and the cascading effect on the entire economy of a slowing agriculture sector has shown us evidently that India cannot dream about a two digit growth rate unless the shackled rural economy is freed and its engine speeded up. The Union Budget of 2016-17 appropriately took cognisance of the fact that the closely intertwined farm sector and rural economy need more than piecemeal benefits to sustain the large population dependent on this sector. The prediction of a healthy monsoon from the weatherman has also brought much relief. However, we need much more than budget allocations and good rainfall to make agriculture sustainable in the long run. We need a broader vision and long term policy approaches. 

This brings us to the crucial question on what lies ahead for the future of Indian agriculture and are we ready to make it a bright one?

Some facts and figures first

Despite supporting almost 60 percent of India’s total population, the contribution of agriculture to the GDP has been consistently declining. It currently stands at around 15 percent. A sector that provides work to more than half of the country’s population contributing less than 1/5th to its GDP indicates a clear imbalance. While India grew by over 7 percent per cent last year, agriculture remained more or less stagnant. India’s foodgrain production which has consistently been abundant over the past several years is showing signs of plateauing, suggesting saturation.   

These statistics point to the need for a major reshuffle in the rural economy. It clearly indicates that an unsustainably excessive part of the population is dependent on one sector and that we need to wean away labour out of agriculture to other sectors. The prevailing situation also calls for a need for major policy measures to boost the rural economy and create new infrastructure for the farm sector.  

With a considerable budget allocation of Rs 35,984 crore, the government proposes to address several basic issues riling the rural sector including building new irrigation facilities, installing projects for ground water restoration, conservation of soil fertility and doubling farmers’ income by 2022. But are these measures enough?

Given below are some of the important measures needed to make Indian agriculture future ready: 

Diversification of rural economy

As discussed above our rural economy is excessively dependent on agriculture for its livelihood. In fact more than 65 percent of the total rural population is engaged in agriculture. This results in under-employment, and low per capital returns. Unfortunately, diversification of the rural economy towards non-farm activities has been very slow due to low education and skill levels, especially among the rural women. 

What we need is a dedicated policy push to create alternate avenues of employment and work in rural areas. This calls for major skill development programs in rural areas which can push a section of the population towards non-farm activities and reduce overcrowding of the agriculture sector. Alternative income avenues to create jobs outside agriculture in rural areas include a policy push to help develop the retail sector, improve education, boost rural entrepreneurship, develop tourism, cottage and handicraft industries, horticulture, fisheries and create better connectivity with urban centres and infrastructure to make business ideas viable.

Increasing produce per hectare

With a population that is expected to continue to rise till 2050, India needs to keep up its food production. Unfortunately, the land area available to agriculture is not expected to increase. Despite increasing foodgrain production over the years, statistics show that per capital foodgrain availability in India has been declining. This brings us to the all important question of the need to increase productivity of agriculture and yields per hectare. 

According to Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), India’s crop yield per hectare remains much lower than the global average. With around 2.4 tonnes of rice produce per hectare, India ranks much lower than even other BRICS nations in terms of productivity. 

Lack of availability of high-yield varieties, water shortage resulting in less than sufficient irrigation, absence of local R&D to improve yields and low per hectare usage of agrochemicals are among the reasons for India’s low agro productivity. Addressing these factors is a major task at hand if we have to keep agriculture sustainable in the long run.

Greater penetration of crop protection measures

Despite being the fourth largest producer of agrochemicals globally, after the US, Japan and China, the usage of agrochemicals in India stands is actually very low, in fact, the one of the lowest in the world at just 0.58 kg per hectare against 4.5 kg per hectare in the US and 10.8 kg per hectare in Japan. The world’s average consumption is 3 kg per hectare. This shows there is a clearly large scope of growth in usage and demand. With limited availability of fertile land to cultivate food and feed an ever growing population, the only alternative we have is to increase productivity per hectare.  

A study supported by industry body Assocham said that Indian farmers lose crop worth Rs 50,000 crore annually due to pest and disease infestation. The findings indicate a massive lack of awareness among farmers about crop protection measures, that if adopted can save huge crop losses. We need to achieve greater penetration of usage of agrochemicals such as insecticides and pesticides to reduce crop losses and increase productivity per hectare. 

Reducing dependence on monsoon 

Making the agriculture sector less dependent on rainfall by diversifying sources of irrigation has been an area long discussed by experts. To combat the persisting problem of lack of irrigation facilities to make up for the unpredictable rainfall, the government has introduced the decision to increase the area under irrigation by 28.5 lakh hectares and set aside Rs 20,000 crore for a new irrigation fund. Additionally, it has committed to Rs 6000 crore for recharging the groundwater, with special emphasis on drought hit areas.

Now, it is to be seen how these funds are utilised towards achieving the desired objective. There have to be sustained efforts to improve groundwater levels through measures such as rainwater harvesting, discouraging deforestation, and developing artificial sources of irrigation.

Moving people out of agriculture

Reducing the rural population’s dependence on agriculture has to be a prime development target for the government over the next 20 years. This does not mean giving any less importance to agriculture; rather it means reducing under-employment on the farm and building alternative jobs outside the farm sector to wean away excess people to other sectors. This can be done by strategically encouraging establishment of industries near rural areas that can provide viable employment, improving education in rural areas, providing vocational and skill training to the rural population and creating positive opportunities in nearby urban centres to encourage positive migration, as against distress migration. 
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Rajesh Aggarwal is the managing director of Insecticides India Ltd