All about WTC 2025: Schedule, final qualification scenarios of top 5 teams

Qualification scenarios for WTC 2025 final of top five teams on points table to schedule of upcoming Test matches of India and others, all you need to know about ICC World Test Championship 2023-25

India’s dominance in the World Test Championship standings has slipped away after a bruising 0-3 defeat to New Zealand, a blow that has thrust Australia to the top with a points percentage (PCT) of 62.50. Now, as the Border-Gavaskar Trophy looms, the stakes have soared—India must conquer at least four of the five matches in this series Down Under to keep their championship hopes alive.

 

A stinging setback: India’s Fall from the Top

 

The series against New Zealand ended in heartbreak for India, who were bested by 25 runs in the final Test in Mumbai. The 0-3 whitewash marks India’s first home series whitewash since South Africa’s 2-0 triumph in 1999-2000—a staggering blow to their title ambitions. This defeat wasn’t just a loss; it was a jolt that plunged their PCT from 62.82 to 58.33, weakening their hold on a top-two finish.

 

 

Australia Ascends: Rivals Now on a Collision Course

 

Australia has seized the moment, climbing back to the top with a PCT of 62.50, making the Border-Gavaskar Trophy not just another series but a decisive battle for both teams. For India, this tour to Australia has transformed into a make-or-break opportunity, with the Border-Gavaskar Trophy serving as a crucible for their resilience and aspirations to reclaim a top-two spot. 

WTC 2023-25 points table, team rankings and leaderboard

 

World Test Championship (2023-2025) - Points Table
Pos		Team	Matches	Won	Lost	Drawn	NR	Points	PCT
1		Australia	12	8	3	1	0	90	62.5
2		India	14	8	5	1	0	98	58.33
3		Sri Lanka	9	5	4	0	0	60	55.56
4		New Zealand	11	6	5	0	0	72	54.55
5		South Africa	8	4	3	1	0	52	54.17
6		England	19	9	9	1	0	93	40.79
7		Pakistan	10	4	6	0	0	40	33.33
8		Bangladesh	10	3	7	0	0	33	27.5
9		West Indies	9	1	6	2	0	20	18.52
Updated after India vs New Zealand 3rd Test match (Concluded on November 3, 2024)

   

The Road Ahead: Four Wins, No Margin for Error

 

India’s path is steep and unyielding—they need at least four wins out of five to secure their place in the Championship final. With each match, the stakes intensify, and the margin for error narrows. The Border-Gavaskar Trophy has become more than a contest; it is a lifeline, a last-ditch quest to restore India’s standing and march onward toward the ultimate prize.

 

As the world awaits the scoreline of BGT 2024-25 will determine the fortunes of New Zealand, Sri Lanka and South Africa, Business Standard analyses and explains the minute details on WTC 2025 final qualification scenarios:

 

India WTC final 2025 qualification scenarios

 

Series left: 5 Tests vs Australia (Away)

 

By what margin India need to win against Australia to qualify for WTC 2025 final

 

If India win the five-match Test series against Australia by a margin of 4-0 or 5-0, Rohit Sharma's men would have their percentage point above 65 per cent.

 

In this case, only Sri Lanka and South Africa could breach the 65 per cent PCT.

 

What if India win the series against Australia by 4-1 margin?

 

In that case India's PCT would be 64.1 per cent. But either of South Africa (69.4%) or Sri Lanka (69.2%) and New Zealand (64.3%) could breach India's PCT of they all their remaining matches in 2023-25 World Test Championship. 

 

What if India lose the Australia series 2-3?

 

If this case, Australia would finish at the WTC points table above India even if the Kangaroos lose the two-match Test series in Sri Lanka. In this scenario, at least one of South Africa, Sri Lanka, or New Zealand would be above India on WTC 2023-25 leaderboard.

 

India upcoming Test matches schedule

 

India upcoming Test schedule - Border Gavaskar Trophy 2024-25
Date and Day	Against and match	Venue	Time
Nov 22, Fri - Nov 26, Tue	Australia vs India, 1st Test	Perth	Match starts at Nov 22, 7:50 AM IST/10:20 AM LOCAL
Dec 06, Fri - Dec 10, Tue	Australia vs India, 2nd Test	Adelaide Oval, Adelaide	Match starts at Dec 06, 9:30 AM IST/02:30 PM LOCAL
Dec 14, Sat - Dec 18, Wed	Australia vs India, 3rd Test	The Gabba, Brisbane	Match starts at Dec 14, 5:50 AM IST/10:20 AM LOCAL
Dec 26, Thu - Dec 30, Mon	Australia vs India, 4th Test	Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne	Match starts at Dec 26, 5:00 AM IST/10:30 AM LOCAL
Jan 03, Fri - Jan 07, Tue	Australia vs India, 5th Test	Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney	Match starts at Jan 03,

 

South Africa's scenarios for WTC 2025 final qualification

Series left: 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (home); 2 Tests vs Pakistan (home)

 

South Africa became a contender for a place in WTC 2025 final after thrashing Bangladesh 2-0. The equation for the Proteas is simple, win their remaining four matches at home and guarantee a spot in the WTC final. If South Africa win their remaining four matches at home, they would attain a PCT of 69.4 per cent, which could only be breached by Australia.

 

New Zealand's WTC final qualification scenarios

 

Series left: 3 Tests vs England (home)

 

The first-ever World Test Championship title holders - New Zealand made a stunning comeback in the race for the WTC final qualification after their historic 3-0 clean sweep in India. 

 

They still have 3 Test matches left in WTC 2023-25 roster.

 

Will New Zealand qualify for WTC 2025 final if they win their remaining three Tests at home?

 

No, the BlackCaps can still lose out as one of South Africa or Sri Lanka and either of Australia or India can still go past their maximum achievable PCT of 64.3 per cent. 

 

So, how New Zealand can qualify for WTC 2025 final?

 

If South Africa vs Sri Lanka series ended in 1-1 draw, neither of the two teams can surpass New Zealand's maximum PCT of 64.3%.In this scenario, only one among India or Australia can go ahead of the Kiwis on the World Test Championship 2023-25 leaderboard, which is enough for New Zealand to guarantee a ticket to Lord's. If New Zealand fail to maximize points against England, their PCT will fall under 60% and would need multiple other results come their favour.

 

Australia's WTC 2025 final qualification scenarios

 

Series left: 5 Tests vs India (home); 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (away)

 

Australia’s Resurgence: Vaulting to the Top

 

After a long hiatus since mid-March, Australia’s Test team has returned to action with a bang, reclaiming the top spot in the table, thanks to India’s unexpected stumble. India’s three consecutive defeats have allowed Australia to edge past them and reignite their hopes of defending the Test Championship title next year at Lord’s.

 

The Path to Glory: Five Wins Away from Lord’s

 

With seven matches remaining in the series, Australia’s path to Lord’s is clear yet challenging. Winning at least five of these encounters could place them firmly in contention for the championship. Their forthcoming battles include series against two teams snapping at their heels in the rankings—victories here would not only bolster their score but also deal a decisive blow to their closest rivals.

 

Strategic Conquests: Targeting Key Competitors

 

Australia’s strategic advantage lies in diminishing the point tally of their closest competitors. A 4-0 triumph against India, followed by a 0-2 loss to Sri Lanka, may not be enough to safeguard their position. Both New Zealand and Sri Lanka are lurking close behind, ready to seize the opportunity—New Zealand could surpass Australia’s 62.3 per cent with a 3-0 sweep over England, reaching 64.3 per cent, while Sri Lanka could jump to 69.2 per cent by defeating South Africa 2-0.

 

The Stakes Intensify: Every Game Counts

 

For Australia, every game is a high-stakes affair, where a single misstep could compromise their title defence. With formidable challengers and slim margins, the road to Lord’s promises to be a true test of their mettle.

 

Sri Lanka's WTC 2025 final scenarios

 

Series left: 2 Tests vs South Africa (away); 2 Tests vs Australia (home)

 

Sri Lanka’s Ascent: A Winning Streak Ignites Hope

 

Sri Lanka have surged up the rankings, propelled by three consecutive victories over England and New Zealand. With newfound momentum, they now find themselves in a strong position to make a run for the top spot. Four matches remain, and each one holds the potential to further cement their rise in the Test Championship table.

 

The 69.2 per cent dream: Perfect run for triumph

 

A flawless performance in their remaining four games could elevate Sri Lanka to an impressive 69.2 per cent points, a figure that few could challenge. However, even this formidable score comes with a condition—India would need to sweep the Border Gavaskar Trophy 5-0 to overtake them. This daunting requirement places Sri Lanka’s destiny in their own hands, provided they continue their winning ways.

 

Three out of four: A fair chance at 61 per cent

 

If Sri Lanka manage three wins out of their remaining four matches, they can still close with a respectable 61 per cent, giving them a solid shot at championship glory. However, this path is more precarious, relying on their competitors slipping along the way. For Sri Lanka, a blend of skill and fortune is essential; as they press forward, their eyes will remain on their rivals’ performances, hoping for the slip-ups that could secure their rise.

 

High Stakes Finish: The Final Stretch Beckons

 

With each game, the stakes only escalate. Sri Lanka’s recent victories have brought them tantalisingly close to their dream, but the journey ahead remains fraught with challenges. Four more wins could crown them as one of the fiercest contenders in the championship race, yet even one defeat could shift the tide. The world watches as Sri Lanka push forward, fuelled by ambition and the promise of glory. 

World Test Championship 2023-25 full schedule - upcoming
Date	Day	Teams	Venue	Local Time	IST Time
November 22–26, 2024	Friday–Tuesday	Australia vs India	Perth, Australia	10:00 AM AWST	7:30 AM IST
November 22–26, 2024	Friday–Tuesday	West Indies vs Bangladesh	North Sound, Antigua	10:00 AM AST	7:30 PM IST
November 27–December 1, 2024	Wednesday–Sunday	South Africa vs Sri Lanka	Durban, South Africa	10:00 AM SAST	1:30 PM IST
November 28–December 2, 2024	Thursday–Monday	New Zealand vs England	Christchurch, New Zealand	11:00 AM NZDT	3:30 AM IST
November 30–December 4, 2024	Saturday–Wednesday	West Indies vs Bangladesh	Kingston, Jamaica	10:00 AM EST	8:30 PM IST
December 5–9, 2024	Thursday–Monday	South Africa vs Sri Lanka	Gqeberha, South Africa	10:00 AM SAST	1:30 PM IST
December 6–10, 2024	Friday–Tuesday	Australia vs India	Adelaide, Australia	2:30 PM ACDT	9:00 AM IST
December 6–10, 2024	Friday–Tuesday	New Zealand vs England	Wellington, New Zealand	11:00 AM NZDT	3:30 AM IST
December 14–18, 2024	Saturday–Wednesday	New Zealand vs England	Hamilton, New Zealand	11:00 AM NZDT	3:30 AM IST
December 14–18, 2024	Saturday–Wednesday	Australia vs India	Brisbane, Australia	10:00 AM AEST	5:30 AM IST
December 26–30, 2024	Thursday–Monday	Australia vs India	Melbourne, Australia	10:30 AM AEDT	5:00 AM IST
December 26–30, 2024	Thursday–Monday	South Africa vs Pakistan	Centurion, South Africa	10:00 AM SAST	1:30 PM IST
January 3–7, 2025	Friday–Tuesday	Australia vs India	Sydney, Australia	10:30 AM AEDT	5:00 AM IST
January 3–7, 2025	Friday–Tuesday	South Africa vs Pakistan	Cape Town, South Africa	10:00 AM SAST	1:30 PM IST
January 16–20, 2025	Thursday–Monday	Pakistan vs West Indies	Karachi, Pakistan	10:00 AM PKT	10:30 AM IST
January 24–28, 2025	Friday–Tuesday	Pakistan vs West Indies	Multan, Pakistan	10:00 AM PKT	10:30 AM IST
January 29-Feb 2, 2025	Wednesday-Sunday	Sri Lanka vs Australia	Galle, Sri Lanka	10:00 AM	10:00 AM
February 6-10, 2025	Thursday-Monday	Sri Lanka vs Australia	Galle, Sri Lanka	10:00 AM	10:00 AM
June 11-15, 2025	Wednesday-Sunday	TBA vs TBA	Lord's, London	11:00 AM	3:30 PM