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India’s crushing 184-run loss to Australia in the Boxing Day Test may have dampened spirits, but the road to the World Test Championship (WTC) final is still open—albeit narrow. With one Test left in the series, India’s destiny hinges on a crucial win in Sydney and a touch of luck from Sri Lanka’s upcoming clash against Australia.
The numbers game: India’s PCT takes a hit
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The Boxing Day loss saw India’s points percentage (PCT) drop to 52.78 from 55.89, putting them on shaky ground. Australia, meanwhile, surged ahead with a PCT of 61.46, strengthening their grip on a spot in the final. South Africa, with their thrilling two-wicket win against Pakistan, have already booked their tickets to Lord’s for the June 2025 final.
The Sydney showdown: A must-win for India
India’s equation is simple yet daunting: they must win in Sydney to claw back to a PCT of 55.26. If they succeed, Australia’s PCT would slip to 54.26, leaving their qualification in the hands of their upcoming series in Sri Lanka. A single victory in that two-Test series could see the Aussies edge past India to join South Africa in the WTC final.
A season of highs and lows for India
The 2024/25 season began with promise, as India brushed aside Bangladesh in a confident 2-0 home series win. But then came an unexpected stumble—a historic loss to New Zealand on home soil. The Men in Blue regrouped under stand-in skipper Jasprit Bumrah, reigniting hope with a win in the Perth opener against Australia. However, two consecutive defeats have now pushed India to the brink of elimination.
WTC 2025 upcoming schedule
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World Test Championship 2025 full schedule - upcoming
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| Date | Day | Teams | Venue | ||
| January 3–7, 2025 | Friday–Tuesday | Australia vs India | Sydney, Australia | 10:30 AM AEDT | 5:00 AM IST |
| January 3–7, 2025 | Friday–Tuesday | South Africa vs Pakistan | Cape Town, South Africa | 10:00 AM SAST | 1:30 PM IST |
| January 16–20, 2025 | Thursday–Monday | Pakistan vs West Indies | Karachi, Pakistan | 10:00 AM PKT | 10:30 AM IST |
| January 24–28, 2025 | Friday–Tuesday | Pakistan vs West Indies | Multan, Pakistan | 10:00 AM PKT | 10:30 AM IST |
| January 29-Feb 2, 2025 | Wednesday-Sunday | Sri Lanka vs Australia | Galle, Sri Lanka | 10:00 | 10:00 |
| February 6-10, 2025 | Thursday-Monday | Sri Lanka vs Australia | Galle, Sri Lanka | 10:00 | 10:00 |
| June 11-15, 2025 | Wednesday-Sunday | TBA vs TBA | Lord's, London | 11:00 | 15:30 |
Australia on the brink of glory
Australia’s masterful Boxing Day victory has brought them within touching distance of the WTC final. With their fate in their own hands, they require just one more Test win—either in Sydney or against Sri Lanka—to secure their place alongside the Proteas at Lord’s.
Centurion heroics seal South Africa’s spot
Amid the drama, Centurion delivered its own masterpiece as Kagiso Rabada and Marco Jansen’s breathtaking partnership powered South Africa to a two-wicket win over Pakistan. The victory not only highlighted the Proteas’ mettle but also guaranteed their place in the WTC final.
Sri Lanka’s chances for WTC final 2025 qualification
Sri Lanka remains in the mix as an outside contender, but their impact on the qualification race could be decisive. If they manage to hold Australia to a 0-0 draw in their home series next year, India’s slim hopes could brighten, setting up a grand finale for WTC qualification.
The road ahead: Uncertainty reigns supreme
With one Test left in Sydney, India and Sri Lanka must navigate a labyrinth of ifs and buts. For now, Australia holds the advantage, but cricket’s unpredictability ensures the WTC final race remains alive until the very end.
ICC WTC 2023-25 points table and team rankings
| Pos | Team | Matches | Won | Lost | Drawn | NR | Points | PCT |
| 1 | South Africa (Q) | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 88 | 66.67% |
| 2 | Australia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 118 | 62.11% |
| 3 | India | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 114 | 52.77% |
| 4 | New Zealand(E) | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 48.21% |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 45.45% |
| 6 | England (E) | 22 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 114 | 43.18% |
| 7 | Bangladesh (E) | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 31.25% |
| 8 | Pakistan (E) | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 30.30% |
| 9 | West Indies (E) | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 24.24% |
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