WTC final 2025 qualification scenarios: India, South Africa, AUS chances

As the race for WTC 2025 final intensifies, check the qualification scenarios and chances of India, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Sri Lanka here

A lot has changed in the past few weeks as far as the ICC World Test championship (WTC) is concerned with teams coming up with surprising comebacks in order to get that coveted top two spots in the final next year. While Team India are dominating the Aussies Down Under following a humiliating 3-0 loss to New Zealand at home, the inaugural WTC champions New Zealand, who were expected to continue the momentum they got back in India aren't looking like themselves at the moment. The Kiwis suffered a defeat from England and slipped to the fourth spot on the WTC 2023-25 points table.

 

 

Meanwhile, South Africa, who will play their remaining three matches at home, are going full steam ahead with their 233-run win in the first of the 2 Tests against Sri Lanka. How all of these results add up to the WTC points table is surely an interesting race for the fans.  Before moving to WTC final 2025 qualification scenarios, lets take a look at how the top five teams are stacked on ICC World Test Championship 2024 leaderboard: 

 

WTC Points table 

World Test Championship (2023-2025) - Points Table
Pos	Team	Matches	Won	Lost	Drawn	NR	Points	PCT
1	India	15	9	5	1	0	110	61.11
2	South Africa	9	5	3	1	0	64	59.26
3	Australia	13	8	4	1	0	90	57.69
4	New Zealand	12	6	6	0	0	72	50.00
4	Sri Lanka	10	5	5	0	0	60	50.00
6	England	20	10	9	1	0	105	43.75
7	Pakistan	10	4	6	0	0	40	33.33
8	West Indies	10	2	6	2	0	33	26.67
9	Bangladesh	11	3	8	0	0	33	25.00
Updated after New Zealand vs England 1st Test match (Concluded on December 1, 2024)

  WTC 2025 final qualification scenarios 

 

India (61.11 percentage points)

 

Matches left: 4 Tests vs Australia (Away).  Maximum attainable percentage point for Team India: 69.29 per cent

 

India needed to win the five-match series, also known as Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT), against Australia by 4-0, meaning with their win on Monday, they now need to win three of the remaining four Tests in Australia, while also securing at least a draw in one if they wish to directly qualify for the final. If they succeed in doing so, they will end their WTC cycle with more than 65 percentage points and will guarantee their top-two finish. 

India scenario for WTC final qualification 

 

Winning BGT 3-1: Staying Secure in the Top Two

  If Rohit Sharma & Co win the BGT by a 3-1 margin, India will remain in the top two of the standings. However, this depends on South Africa’s performance. Should the Proteas win their second Test against Sri Lanka (having already won the first Test by 233 runs), they could displace India from their stronghold.

 

Winning BGT 3-2: Reliance on Sri Lanka to Draw

  A 3-2 series win for India over Australia adds a layer of uncertainty. To maintain their position, India would need Sri Lanka to secure at least a draw in one of their two upcoming Tests against Australia, scheduled for January-February next year.

 

Drawing BGT 2-2: A Tricky Road Ahead

  If India and Australia draw the series 2-2, the equation becomes more intricate. India would then need:  

- South Africa to win their series against Sri Lanka 2-0.  

- Sri Lanka to defeat Australia by a minimum margin of 1-0 in their two-Test series.  

 

This scenario underscores the fine margins at play.

 

Losing BGT 2-3: A Web of Dependence on Other Results

  A 2-3 loss to Australia would place India in a precarious position, leaving their fate dependent on multiple outcomes:  

  1. New Zealand must draw 1-1 with England.  

2. South Africa must draw their series 1-1 with both Sri Lanka and Pakistan.  

3. The Sri Lanka vs Australia series must conclude as a 0-0 draw.  

 

In this case, India would anxiously await results from multiple series to salvage their position.

 

The second Test of the India vs Australia series will be played in Adelaide from December 6. 

India upcoming Test schedule - Border Gavaskar Trophy 2024-25
Date and Day	Against and match	Venue	Time
Dec 06, Fri - Dec 10, Tue	Australia vs India, 2nd Test	Adelaide Oval, Adelaide	Match starts at Dec 06, 9:30 AM IST/02:30 PM LOCAL
Dec 14, Sat - Dec 18, Wed	Australia vs India, 3rd Test	The Gabba, Brisbane	Match starts at Dec 14, 5:50 AM IST/10:20 AM LOCAL
Dec 26, Thu - Dec 30, Mon	Australia vs India, 4th Test	Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne	Match starts at Dec 26, 5:00 AM IST/10:30 AM LOCAL
Jan 03, Fri - Jan 07, Tue	Australia vs India, 5th Test	Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney	Match starts at Jan 03,

 

ALSO READ: IND vs AUS 2nd Test: Boland to replace Hazlewood in Australia Playing 11  South Africa (59.26 percentage points)

 

Series left: 1 Test vs Sri Lanka (Home); 2 Tests vs Pakistan (Home)  Maximum attainable percenatge point for South Africa: 69.44 per cent 

South Africa's qualification scenarios for WTC final 2025

 

With four consecutive victories in WTC 2023-25 cycle, the Proteas have emerged as frontrunners for securing a spot in the final. Their remaining three home games further bolster their chances. Here is how their journey could unfold based on different scenarios:

 

Two wins and a draw: A firm grip on qualification 

If South Africa secure two wins and one draw in their remaining games, they will climb to a formidable 63.89 percentage points. This position would only be challenged by either India or Australia, depending on their future results. 

  Two Wins and a Loss: Dependence on Sri Lanka, India, and Australia

  A slightly less dominant run, with two wins and one defeat, would see South Africa finish at 61.11 percentage points. In this case, they would need: 

- Sri Lanka to drop points, either through a loss or a draw.  

- India to win no more than three of their remaining four matches.  

- Australia to secure no more than four victories in their upcoming fixtures.  

 

One Win and Two Draws: A Risky Proposition  

   Securing just one win and two draws would take South Africa to 58.88 percentage points. For this scenario to work in their favour, they would heavily rely on other results aligning perfectly.  

 

However, this scenario is less likely given the rarity of draws in recent WTC matches. Of the 52 Tests played so far in this cycle, only three have ended in draws, all of which were influenced by rain interruptions.

    Australia (57.69 percentage points)

 

Series left: 4 Tests vs India (Home); 2 Tests vs Sri Lanka (Away)

  

Maximum attainable percentage point for the Aussies: 71.05 per cent 

Australia’s Path to WTC 2023-2025 Final qualification

 

Despite a setback in Perth, Australia remain in command of their journey to WTC2023-2025 final. Here’s how they can secure a top-two finish and keep their title hopes alive:

 

Five Wins: Securing a Guaranteed Spot

 

If Australia win five of their remaining six matches, they will achieve a Points Percentage (PCT) of 65.79, ensuring a top-two finish. In this scenario, only South Africa would have a chance to surpass their standing.

 

Four Wins and a Draw: The Safe Route

 

Australia can also confirm their place in the final with four wins and one draw, which would take their PCT to 62.28. Again, this would leave only South Africa capable of overtaking them in the standings.

 

Scenario of a Border-Gavaskar Trophy Defeat: Still in the Race

 

If India win the BGT 3-2, Australia’s pathway remains intact. A 2-0 series sweep against Sri Lanka in their upcoming matches would elevate their PCT to 60.53, surpassing India’s maximum possible PCT of 58.77. Even in this case, only South Africa would be able to finish ahead of them.

  Sri Lanka (50 percentage points)  

Series left: 1 Test vs South Africa (Away); 2 Tests vs Australia (Home)

 

Sri Lanka’s Path: Perfection Required for Automatic Qualification

 

Following a defeat in Durban, Sri Lanka's chances hinge on a flawless performance in their remaining matches:

 

Winning All Three Tests: 

 

A clean sweep would take their Points Percentage (PCT) to 61.53, guaranteeing automatic qualification for the final.

 

Two Wins and a Draw

 

This scenario would leave Sri Lanka at 56.41 PCT, a precarious position where they would rely heavily on other teams faltering. A mix of favourable results from South Africa, India, and Australia would then be necessary.

  New Zealand (50 percentage points)

 

Series left: 2 Tests vs England (Home)

New Zealand's scenarios for WTC final 2025

 

New Zealand’s eight-wicket loss to England has severely dented their WTC 2023-25 campaign. Even winning their next two Tests would only raise their percentage point to 57.14, leaving them reliant on a complex web of external outcomes.

 

Possible Scenarios for New Zealand at 57.14

 

South Africa’s Stumbles:

 

South Africa must lose at least two of their remaining three Tests. Even one win, one loss, one draw would suffice to keep South Africa below New Zealand in the standings.

 

India and Australia Sharing Top Spots:

 

Scenario 1: Australia win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 3-2, limiting India to a PCT of 53.50.

 

Scenario 2: India win the series 3-2 and Australia draw their series against Sri Lanka 1-1. In this case:

• India would finish with a PCT of 64.03.
• Australia would settle at 55.26.

This outcome could set the stage for a rematch of the inaugural WTC final between India and New Zealand.

 

 

 

World Test Championship 2023-25 full schedule - upcoming
Date	Day	Teams	Venue	Local Time	IST Time
November 27–December 1, 2024	Wednesday–Sunday	South Africa vs Sri Lanka	Durban, South Africa	Completed	South Africa win
November 28–December 2, 2024	Thursday–Monday	New Zealand vs England	Christchurch, New Zealand	Completed	England win
November 30–December 4, 2024	Saturday–Wednesday	West Indies vs Bangladesh	Kingston, Jamaica	Underway	8:30 PM IST
December 5–9, 2024	Thursday–Monday	South Africa vs Sri Lanka	Gqeberha, South Africa	10:00 AM SAST	1:30 PM IST
December 6–10, 2024	Friday–Tuesday	Australia vs India	Adelaide, Australia	2:30 PM ACDT	9:00 AM IST
December 6–10, 2024	Friday–Tuesday	New Zealand vs England	Wellington, New Zealand	11:00 AM NZDT	3:30 AM IST
December 14–18, 2024	Saturday–Wednesday	New Zealand vs England	Hamilton, New Zealand	11:00 AM NZDT	3:30 AM IST
December 14–18, 2024	Saturday–Wednesday	Australia vs India	Brisbane, Australia	10:00 AM AEST	5:30 AM IST
December 26–30, 2024	Thursday–Monday	Australia vs India	Melbourne, Australia	10:30 AM AEDT	5:00 AM IST
December 26–30, 2024	Thursday–Monday	South Africa vs Pakistan	Centurion, South Africa	10:00 AM SAST	1:30 PM IST
January 3–7, 2025	Friday–Tuesday	Australia vs India	Sydney, Australia	10:30 AM AEDT	5:00 AM IST
January 3–7, 2025	Friday–Tuesday	South Africa vs Pakistan	Cape Town, South Africa	10:00 AM SAST	1:30 PM IST
January 16–20, 2025	Thursday–Monday	Pakistan vs West Indies	Karachi, Pakistan	10:00 AM PKT	10:30 AM IST
January 24–28, 2025	Friday–Tuesday	Pakistan vs West Indies	Multan, Pakistan	10:00 AM PKT	10:30 AM IST
January 29-Feb 2, 2025	Wednesday-Sunday	Sri Lanka vs Australia	Galle, Sri Lanka	10:00:00	10:00:00
February 6-10, 2025	Thursday-Monday	Sri Lanka vs Australia	Galle, Sri Lanka	10:00:00	10:00:00
June 11-15, 2025	Wednesday-Sunday	TBA vs TBA	Lord's, London