World Cup 2023: IND-PAK semis still on cards; semifinal chances of 9 teams

The race for the semifinals hots up after Pakistan defeated Bangladesh on October 31, 2023 and knocked the Bangla Tigers out of the last four contention. After 32 matches in the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023, as many as nine teams have a chance to make it to the semifinal of the Cricket World Cup with England having the least chance ie 0.01 per cent. Meanwhile, India who won all their six matches in ICC World Cup 2023, are yet to be confirmed as one of the semifinalists given Afghanistan staging upset after upset in the quadrennial event. 

If Pakistan manage to qualify for the semifinal, they earn the fourth spot on the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 points table. This could come as great news for the fans as India vs Pakistan semifinal could become a reality. India are set to enter the semifinal as a top team given they have been unbeaten in the World Cup so far and expected to run through the opposition in the next three games.  

Check ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 points table here

ICC Cricket World Cup 2023: Semi final qualification percentage chances of all teams

Teams	Percentage chances
India	99.99
South Africa	98.93
New Zealand	84.71
Australia	81.72
Afghanistan	20.21
Pakistan	8.68
Sri Lanka	4.04
Netherlands	1.72
England	0.01
Bangladesh	Out of semifinal reace

Here are the qualification scenarios of all the nine teams:

 

India semifinal qualification scenarios

With India being at the top of the Cricket World Cup 2023 points table, Rohit Sharma's men are just one win away from booking their place in the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 semifinal. If they two of their remaining three matches, they will qualify for the semifinal as the number one team. 

India's next three matches in World Cup

• vs Sri Lanka on November 2
• vs South Africa on November 5
• vs Netherlands on November 12

Even if India lose their remaining three matches and Afghanistan face defeat in either of the three matches, the Men In Blue will qualify for the semifinals.

Check ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 full schedule here

South Africa semifinal qualification scenarios

To ensure a spot in the semi-finals, the South African side captained by Temba Bavuma needs three more points. But their last three group games are against challengers Afghanistan, then top-4 rivals New Zealand and India.

Depending on the outcomes of the teams presently occupying the fifth through tenth spots on the points table, the Proteas may also need just one victory to advance last 4 spot.

South Africa's next three matches in World Cup

• vs New Zealand on November 1
• vs India on November 5
• vs Afghanistan on November 10

New Zealand semifinal qualification scenarios

After winning four straight games at the start of the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023, New Zealand fell to Australia and India. In order to go to the semi-finals, the Blackcaps must win two of their last three games.

On November 1, New Zealand will play South Africa in Pune. A victory for the Kiwis might lead to a three-way fight for the second position in the points table and increase their prospects of advancing to the next round.

However, despite losing to the Proteas, the Blackcaps can still go to the semifinals by defeating Pakistan and Sri Lanka in their last two games, which would also end those two teams' chances of qualifying for last four.

New Zealand's next three matches in World Cup

• vs South Africa on November 1
• vs Pakistan on November 4
• vs Sri Lanka on November 9

Australia's semifinal qualification scenarios

Australia and their trans-Tasman opponents, New Zealand, are in a similar scenario. For Pat Cummins and company to increase their chances of reaching the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 semifinals, they must win two of their remaining three games.

Australia is on a four-match winning streak after losing their first two games, and after defeating the Netherlands by a score of 309 runs, they have increased their net run rate. The defending champions England will face the five-time ODI World Cup winners on October 4.

They will be one victory away from moving on to the next round if they defeat England. Even if Australia loses to the Three Lions, they can still advance if they win against Bangladesh and Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, if the Aussies lose two of their three remaining matches, their chances for semifinal will be intact due their superior net run rate. But they have to depend on the results of other teams.

ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 latest news updates

Australia's next three matches in World Cup

• vs England on November 4
• vs Afghanistan on November 7
• vs Bangladesh on November 11

Afghanistan's semifinal qualification scenarios and chances

Afghanistan's victory over Sri Lanka by seven wickets on October 30 increased their prospects of reaching the World Cup semi-finals for the first time. Given that they beat South Africa, Australia, and the Netherlands, they can attain 12 points.

To have a chance of moving on to the next round of the tournament, Afghanistan will need to either Australia or New Zealand to lose two of their next three matches while winning the first one by a significant margin.

Afghanistan's next three matches in World Cup 2023

• vs Netherlands on November 3
• vs Australia on November 7
• vs South Africa on November 10

Pakistan's semifinal qualification scenarios and chances

Pakistan have put themselves in contention for semifinal after winning the game against Sri Lanka on October 31 and that to with more than 100 balls to spare. Pakistan now need to win their remaining two matches and expect, New Zealand to face defeat in all their three remaining fixtures.

Moreover, if Australia win one match then it will be the end of the road for the 1992 World Cup champions.

Pakistan's remaining matches in World Cup 2023

• vs New Zealand on November 4
• vs England on November 11

Sri Lanka's semifinal Qualification Scenarios and chances

It is not mathematically impossible for Sri Lanka to qualify for the semifinals in the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023. With three games remaining, the Lankans earn as many as 10 points, which is what they presently have at four points.

First and foremost, Sri Lanka would have to triumph in all three of their remaining games, including victories over India and New Zealand, two of the top four teams at the moment. For Sri Lanka to not score more than ten points, they must also defeat at least two of the five teams that are currently ahead of them. They would also have to hope that the net run rate for those teams is lower than theirs.

Sri Lanka's remaining matches in World Cup 2023

• vs India on November 2
• vs Bangladesh on November 6
• vs New Zealand on November 9

England semifinal qualification scenarios and chances

Although they can mathematically still qualify, the reigning champion England are all but eliminated from the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 semifinals race. the English side would have to defeat Australia, the Netherlands, and Pakistan by huge margins and hope that just three teams end with more than eight points in the standings.

But they would be eliminated from the competition at the group stage if they lost any of the three games.

England remaining matches in World Cup 2023
 

• vs Australia on November 4
• vs Netherlands on November 8
• vs Pakistan on November 11

Netherlands semifinal qualification scenarios and chances

With three games remaining, the Netherlands, who play Afghanistan, England, and India, are on four points. To have a chance of advancing to their first-ever World Cup semifinal, the Dutch must win all three games by a huge margin.

While the Netherlands can only score a maximum of 10, they will simultaneously hope that no more than three teams end the group stage of ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 with 10 points or more.

Netherlands remaining matches in World Cup 2023

• vs Afghanistan on November 3
• vs England on November 8
• vs India on November 12