Gold prices rebound to Rs 80k-level despite Trump's aggressive trade policy

Trump's pledge to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all US imports further limits the Federal Reserve's ability to ease aggressively, adding to the downward pressure on gold, an analyst said

Gold prices have breached Rs 80,000 per 10 grams levels in major Indian cities, recovering from the impact of Donald Trump's expected high tariff trade policy and a firm US dollar, analysts said.

A flare-up in geopolitical tensions due to the Russia-Ukraine war is bolstering the precious metal, which crossed the USD 2,700 an ounce level in global markets, they added.

The uncertainty surrounding the US economy and volatile stock markets are also driving inflows into the safe-haven, however, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious attitude towards policy interest rate and strong US dollar are acting as headwinds for the bullion, analysts stated.

 

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold prices tanked Rs 6,775, or 8.5 per cent, to hit Rs 73,000 per 10 grams after Donald Trump's victory raised expectations of a restricted trade policy by the US.

"Gold prices had fallen 8 per cent after the US election results.

"The strengthening US dollar index which rose from USD 101 to 107.5 pressured gold immensely, while Trump's pro-cryptocurrency stance during his campaign diverted investor funds seeking higher returns," Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said.

Further, Trump's pledge to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all US imports further limits the Federal Reserve's ability to ease aggressively, adding to the downward pressure on gold, he said.

However, recent missile attacks by Russia at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro heightened geopolitical tensions, bolstering the gold's appeal as safe haven investment.

"Gold prices surged significantly as geopolitical tensions fuelled safe-haven demand, driven by renewed fears of nuclear risks in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict," Trivedi added.

Rising global unease pushed gold higher by USD 38 on Comex, closing at USD 2,707 per ounce, and by Rs 900 on MCX, reaching Rs 77,600 on Friday.

"This sharp recovery highlights gold's resilience and its role in balancing portfolios during uncertain times," he said.

In spot markets, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity surged Rs 1,100 to hit a two-week high of Rs 80,400 per 10 grams, while the price of gold of 99.5 per cent purity soared Rs 1,100, to reclaim the Rs 80,000-mark again on Friday.

Meanwhile, in futures trade on the MCX on Friday, gold contracts for December delivery rose Rs 69, or 0.09 per cent, to close at Rs 77,685 per 10 grams.

Gold regained lost ground, and a bullish sentiment remains intact and the precious metal is likely to trade in a range of Rs 77,000-78,300 on the MCX, analysts said.

The ongoing wedding season in India is also pushing gold buying interest by jewellers and retailers, they added.

"Wedding season is pivotal for our business, with bridal or wedding jewellery constituting a significant share of our sales. During the ongoing wedding season this year, we are witnessing healthy demand for bridal jewellery across all our stores in India," M P Ahammed, Chairman at Malabar Group, said.

Key macroeconomic data, such as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, to be released next week, which will play a critical role in investor sentiment towards the bullion, traders said.

Market participants will also await the US Q3 GDP data that will provide further direction for the yellow metal, they added.