Govt slashes Nov gold import data by $5 billion in commodity revision

The central government has revised downwards the gold import data for November to $9.8 billion, a sharp reduction from the earlier announced figure of $14.8 billion, according to data from the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S) released on Wednesday.

 

The $5 billion revision is attributed to a ‘calculation error’ caused by the alleged double counting of gold shipments in warehouses following a shift in the online filing services to the National Securities Depository (NSDL) from the Indian Customs Electronic Gateway (ICEGATE) starting in July 2024 for gold traders.

 

A senior government official told Business Standard that there seems to be an ‘error’ in the transition from NSDL to ICEGATE.  However, the Department of Commerce did not issue an official statement on the revised data.

 

 

The revised data also suggests a narrowing of India’s trade deficit by $5 billion, reducing it to $32.8 billion in November from the previously reported all-time high of $37.8 billion. Despite the downward revision, India’s trade deficit in November continues to remain at an all-time high.

 

Noticing an ‘unusual’ 331 per cent year-on-year surge in gold imports during November, the DGCI&S, under the Department of Commerce, initiated a ‘detailed examination’ of the import data for the yellow metal. A reconciliation of the data was also conducted with figures provided by the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs, according to a source in the Ministry of Commerce.

 

Trade data released on December 16 showed that India’s trade deficit had reached a record high in November due to a surge in merchandise imports, driven largely by a spike in inbound gold shipments. The initial data indicated gold imports worth $14.8 billion, accounting for 21 per cent of total merchandise imports for the month.

 

Ajay Srivastava, a former Indian Trade Service officer and founder of the Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative, said that, in the interest of transparency, the government must clearly explain the rationale behind this revision, as unexplained revisions can damage the credibility of India’s economic reporting, potentially leading to uncertainty in financial markets.

 

“Was there an error in the initial data compilation, or did DGCI&S uncover discrepancies after further verification? Without a clear explanation, such revisions erode trust in official statistics, especially when no changes were made to the data compilation rules in November. This also raises a critical question: if there was a significant error in gold import data, could similar discrepancies exist in other commodity figures or for other periods?” Srivastava asked.

 

The government must proactively review trade data to ensure that this is an isolated case and not indicative of a broader data accuracy problem, he added.

 

Despite the downward revision in the value of gold imports in November, inbound shipments of the yellow metal entering India continued to remain high in the current financial year (2024-25/FY25).

 

Department of Commerce officials had previously observed that the high gold imports in 2024 have been mainly driven by increased gold prices, wedding and festival demand, the reduction in Customs duty from 15 per cent to 6 per cent in July, and increasing demand from banks.

 

During the first eight months of the current financial year (FY25), India imported gold worth $42 billion, compared to $33 billion during the same period a year ago. India imports gold mainly from Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, and Peru, among other countries.