India's current account deficit seen falling to $10 bn in Q1: India Ratings

Imports are expected to be around $163 bn during the period, up from a seven-quarter low of $160.3 bn witnessed in Q1 FY24, due to increase in crude prices since July

With falling trade deficit, India's current account deficit is likely to narrow to around USD 10 billion or 1 per cent of GDP in the April-June quarter of the ongoing fiscal, according to India Ratings.

The country's current account deficit (CAD) stood at USD 18 billion or 2.1 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.

However, the agency expects CAD to rise in the second quarter of the current fiscal as it sees merchandise exports declining below USD 100 billion after a gap of eight quarters.

Imports are expected to be around USD 163 billion during the period, up from a seven-quarter low of USD 160.3 billion witnessed in Q1 FY24, due to increase in crude prices since July.

 

This will have the overall trade deficit printing in at a three-quarter high of USD 64 billion, the rating agency said.

Another reason is the moderation in services demand since June due to the slowdown in the global economy. Global services PMI stood at a five-month low of 52.7 in July. Thus, services trade surplus to remain around USD 36 billion in Q2, it said.

Merchandise exports contracted even in Q1 by coming in 14.1 per cent lower than the year-ago period. This was the biggest decline in the last 12 quarters. Goods exports stood at a seven-quarter low of USD 104 billion in Q1 FY24.

Merchandise imports came down to a seven-quarter low of USD 160.3 billion in Q1, while goods imports shrunk 12.7 per cent in the same period, which was the sharpest fall since Q2 FY21.

Benign commodity prices helped in reducing the country's import bill as the inbound shipments of critical commodities such as crude (18.5 per cent) coal (32.4 per cent), organic chemicals (31.9 per cent) and vegetable oils (32.9 per cent) came down in value terms.