India's power emissions must peak by 2026 to align with Paris pact

By Rajesh Kumar Singh
 

Emissions from India’s high-polluting power industry must peak by 2026 for the country to hit net zero by the middle of the century and align itself with the Paris Agreement, according to BloombergNEF, a target that’s unlikely to be met due to the government’s push for the continued use of coal.
 

The world’s third-biggest emitter needs $12.4 trillion in investment to reach net zero ahead of its official target of 2070, BNEF said in its New Energy Outlook for India published Thursday. That includes funding to accelerate clean energy deployment, large-scale adoption of electric vehicles, and scaling up new technologies like carbon capture and green hydrogen to decarbonise the coal-dependent economy.

 

The report comes as India expands renewables but remains heavily reliant on coal to meet the power needs of the world’s largest population, prompting calls for it to be more ambitious in weaning itself off the dirtiest fossil fuel to support the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below 2C (3.6F).

New Delhi has announced a fresh pipeline of coal power projects and pushed old polluting facilities to defer phase-outs until 2030, citing the fuel’s importance for energy security, at least until clean solutions become affordable for round-the-clock supply.  

“It seemed evident until a couple of years ago that India’s power sector emissions will peak around 2026, but the government’s fresh push for coal power has delayed that target,” said Sunil Dahiya, a New Delhi-based analyst with Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. “But we still remain hopeful that the emissions will peak before 2030.”

Coal accounts for about three-quarters of India’s electricity generation, a share that’s more or less held steady despite more than 100 gigawatts of renewables coming on stream over the past decade. BNEF projects the fuel will remain one of the country’s largest energy sources even as fossil fuels see their share in primary energy demand drop by nearly a third by 2050, from 77 per cnt in 2023.

The nation aims to reach 500 gigawatts of clean power capacity by 2030. That will require annual additions of more than 40 gigawatts from low-carbon sources, triple the average yearly deployments in the past five years, according to Bloomberg calculations based on government data.  

“We don’t feel that coal is going to go away for next 30 to 40 years,” said Debasish Nanda, the director of business development at Coal India Ltd. “That is why we are investing in power plants.”

BNEF’s annual report assessed two scenarios: an ambitious roadmap where India hits net zero emissions two decades ahead of its official target; and an ‘economic transition scenario’ where investment decisions lean entirely on cost economics, shutting out expensive technologies like carbon capture and clean hydrogen.

In the less ambitious scenario, coal use wouldn’t peak until 2038 and its unabated burning would still provide a fifth of power generation by 2050, meaning emissions will remain high through the middle of the century. Electricity generation would only triple from 2023 levels, versus a five-fold rise aided by production of clean hydrogen in the net zero scenario. 

“It’s therefore imperative that India ups its climate ambition, comes out with a roadmap for deep decarbonization of the economy and declares target years to achieve peak emissions from various sectors,” said Shantanu Jaiswal, BNEF’s head of research in India.