India should grow at 7-10% for 20-30 yrs to avoid middle income trap: NITI

PM Modi said emphasis on skill, research, innovation and job based knowledge necessary for making 'Viksit Bharat'

India needs to grow at a sustained pace of 7-10 per cent for 20-30 years to escape the middle-income trap and become a developed nation with a per capita income of $18,000 per annum and the size of a $30 trillion economy by 2047 when the country celebrates its centenary anniversary of independence, the NITI Aayog (National Institution for Transforming India) said in an approach paper summarising its vision for 'Viksit Bharat'.

"The GDP would have to grow 9 times from today’s $3.36 trillion and the per capita income would need to rise 8 times from today’s $2,392 per annum," the government's think tank said after its 9th Governing Council meeting attended by chief ministers and lieutenant governors.

 

The NITI Aayog defines 'Viksit Bharat' as a Bharat which will have all the attributes of a developed country with a per capita income that is comparable to the high-income countries of the world today. “It is a Bharat whose social, cultural, technological, and institutional features will mark it out as a developed nation with a rich heritage and one that is capable of functioning at the frontiers of knowledge. The World Bank defines high-income countries as those whose annual per capita income is more than $14,005 (in 2023),” it added.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address to the governing council of NITI Aayog said, "India is a youthful country. It is a huge attraction for the entire world because of its workforce. We should aim to make our youth a skilled and employable workforce. Emphasis on skill, research, innovation and job-based knowledge is necessary for making 'Viksit Bharat'."

On the demographic front, the approach paper said nearly 50 per cent of India’s population is below the age of 25 years and accounts for nearly 20 per cent of the world’s total young population. “This is an enormous opportunity, likely to last till 2047. Using this dividend well, we can propel India into a 'Viksit Bharat'. We are already a talent hub with the largest number of STEM graduates in the world - over 2 million every year, approximately 43 per cent of whom are women. We also have the 3rd biggest startup ecosystem in the world. Leveraged together and properly supported, our demography and enterprise can propel our economic growth,” it added.

The approach paper said India can aim for raising the average life expectancy to around 84 years, which is the best in the world. “The total fertility rate (TFR) will gradually decline to about 1.80 and the population stabilising at about 1.65 billion by 2047. Being a youthful nation, the working-age population would be around 1.12 billion, making it the single largest workforce of any nation in the world,” it said.

Apart from avoiding a middle-income trap, NITI Aayog identified challenges such as upgrading capabilities in manufacturing, logistics and R&D; achieving balance between energy 'security', 'access', 'affordability', and 'sustainability'; improving the competitiveness of India's industry, particularly in logistics and in cost of power; and bridging the gap between rural and urban incomes and promoting balanced regional development that need to be addressed.