 "The south-west monsoon gives 70% of rain to the country")
The southwest monsoon covered the entire country on Sunday, six days earlier than usual. This is remarkable, given that monsoon reached the mainland after a delay of almost seven days, on June 8.
Last year, too, the southwest monsoon covered the entire country by July 2, but the onset was on May 29. This year’s coverage, given that the monsoon arrived after a week’s delay, could be the quickest for the entire country.
According to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD’s) data, in the past 24 years, the southwest monsoon covered the entire country on July 2 in only three years -- 2000, 2022, and 2023, and on July 3 in 2001 and 2009.
The earliest the monsoon covered the entire country in the past 24 years was in 2013 -- on June 16.
This year, monsoon winds first got a push from cyclone Biparjoy, and then from the development of “low pressure areas” over the north Bay of Bengal that pushed it across the mainland.
“The southwest monsoon further advanced into the remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab today. Thus, it covered the entire country today, that is July 2, 2023, against the normal date of July 8, 2023," the IMD said in a statement.
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Last week, the met department said monsoon rainfall in the critical month of July is cumulatively expected to be “normal” at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), but there may be patches of distress in agriculturally crucial regions of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, and Meghalaya.
July, along with August, are the two most crucial months in the four-month southwest monsoon season; they get more than 60 per cent of the seasonal average rainfall.
The IMD in its forecast said most parts of central India and adjoining south peninsular and east India, and some areas of the Northeast and the Northwest are likely to witness normal-to-above-normal rainfall in July.
About the El Niño phenomenon, the IMD said, based on its calculation, it did not appear in June, but would likely rear its head in July. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on the other hand, is expected to become positive in the coming months; it is now in a neutral state. A positive IOD has a strong bearing on the Indian monsoon.
Overall, the met department has forecast rains to be normal this year at 96 per cent of the LPA, with a model error of +/-4 per cent. Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has said that monsoon rainfall could be “below normal” this year at 94 per cent of the LPA. Skymet forecast is with a model error of +/-5 per cent.
The LPA rainfall during the June to September period is 870 mm.
