 "YS Jagan Mohan Reddy")
As the Lok Sabha elections draw to a close, all eyes are now fixed on the exit polls, expected to be announced this evening (June 1). While the ruling BJP is hoping to return to power for a record third time, it is still longing to gain a foothold in the south. And it has high hopes from Andhra Pradesh, where votes were cast for state assembly and for Parliamentary election on May 13.
The Andhra Pradesh Assembly has 175 seats, with 29 reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and seven for Scheduled Tribes (STs). A total of 2,387 candidates are in the fray.
Voting in Andhra Pradesh Assembly polls
This year, nearly 40 million voters were registered in the southern state, including 20 million male, 20.1 million female, 3,421 third gender voters, and 68,185 service electors.
According to the Election Commission (EC) data on its Voter Turnout app, 69.49 per cent of voters participated in the Lok Sabha polls, while 69.61 per cent voted in the Assembly elections in the southern state on May 13.
Key contests in Andhra Pradesh
This time, the state is witnessing a three-way contest.
On the one side is the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), led by Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. The other side is the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), former chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP), and Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena Party.
While the third contender is the Congress-led INDIA bloc.
During the 2019 elections, the YSRCP secured a landslide victory, winning 151 of the 175 Assembly seats with a 49.95 per cent vote share. The TDP was reduced to 23 seats with 39.17 per cent of the votes, while the remaining seat went to the JSP.
The national parties like the BJP and Congress did not win any seat in the 2019 Assembly polls.
However, this time, the YSRCP faces a direct challenge from the NDA alliance, while Jagan Reddy's younger sister YS Sharmila leads the Congress in the state.
Here's a look at some key candidates contesting in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections 2024:
YS Jagan Mohan Reddy (Pulivendula)
Chief Minister Jagan Reddy is seeking a re-election from Pulivendula for the third time.
In addition to facing TDP’s Mareddy Ravindranath Reddy -- known as BTech Ravi -- the CM is also dealing with a family feud as his sister YS Sharmila is contesting from Kadapa Lok Sabha seat, under which Pulivendula falls.
Sharmila is making every effort to challenge her brother on all fronts. The Congress has fielded M Dhruva Kumar Reddy from Pulivendula.
N Chandrababu Naidu (Kuppam)
Former Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has represented the Kuppam Assembly constituency since 1989. However, this seat faces a political upheaval as its loyalty to Naidu is tested against the YSRCP government’s welfare schemes. The ruling party has fielded K Bharath, a young candidate, while the Congress has nominated Avula Govindarajulu.
Pawan Kalyan (Pithapuram)
JSP chief Pawan Kalyan is running for the NDA from Pithapuram, facing YSRCP’s current Kakinada Lok Sabha member Vanga Geetha and Congress’ Madepalli Satyananda Rao.
In the previous election, YSRCP's Dorababu Pendem won the Pithapuram seat by defeating TDP's SVSN Varma with a margin of over 14,000 votes.
Dharmana Prasada Rao (Srikakulam)
Andhra Pradesh minister Dharmana Prasada Rao is seeking a fourth term from the pivotal Srikakulam seat. He is up against TDP's Gondu Shankar and Congress' Ambati Krishna Rao. In 2019, Dharmana Rao narrowly won this seat, defeating TDP's Gunda Lakshmi Devi by just over 5,000 votes.
Nara Lokesh (Mangalagiri)
Nara Lokesh, son of former CM N Chandrababu Naidu, is vying for an MLA seat from Mangalagiri again in the 2024 elections after his defeat in 2019. This time, he faces YSRCP’s Murugudu Lavanya and CPI(M)'s Jonna Shiva Shankar.
Key issues in Andhra Pradesh:
Demand for Special Category Status (SCS)
The demand for Special Category Status (SCS) has been a persistent issue since it was promised in 2014. Initially pledged to Andhra Pradesh post-bifurcation, it remains unfulfilled, causing widespread discontent. Despite repeated assurances from the central government, the state has only received special financial assistance, which falls short of the promised SCS, leading to political tensions between the ruling YSRCP and the opposition TDP, which is accused of not pressuring the federal government enough to deliver on this promise.
Proposal to shift capital
The proposal to move the capital from Amaravati to Visakhapatnam has sparked significant debate. Amaravati was established as the capital under the previous TDP government with considerable investment and infrastructure projects.
However, the current YSRCP government’s decision to reconsider the capital location has raised concerns. While the YSRCP and TDP clash over this decision, the BJP opposes the capital’s relocation but supports moving the High Court to Kurnool.
Scams and legal battles
Former Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu is embroiled in legal issues, particularly regarding a skill development scam. The TDP claims the legal actions against Naidu, who spent 53 days in jail, are politically motivated and intended to undermine him. Conversely, the government insists there is solid evidence of his misconduct, necessitating legal proceedings.
Employment opportunities
Employment opportunities are a significant concern for voters, with 67 per cent of respondents in a recent poll prioritizing it. The TDP’s slogan “Job Ravalante Babu Ravali” (Jobs will come only if Babu comes to power) aims to attract youth and first-time voters.
The party is encouraging the youth to compare the industrial growth under both the TDP and YSRCP governments.
What factors can influence Andhra Assembly results?
Caste factor:
Caste dynamics influence election strategies. The Reddys and Kammas, two dominant castes, have historically dominated the state's political landscape, producing 15 of the 19 Chief Ministers.
However, the Kapu community, comprising about 20 per cent to 22 per cent of the electorate, and the other backward classes, making up half of the voters, are the true determinants of election outcomes. Political parties are keenly courting these groups, with JSP’s Pawan Kalyan positioning himself as the Kapus’ representative, given his community roots.
TDP-BJP-JSP alliance:
In 2014, right after the state's bifurcation, the TDP allied with the BJP and JSP to contest against the YSR Congress, which was then contesting its first election. Naidu emerged victorious, with the TDP winning 102 of 175 Assembly seats, and the BJP securing four seats.
The JSP did not contest but provided external support. Jagan Reddy had a strong debut with around 70 seats. In the Lok Sabha, the TDP-led alliance won 16 seats, leaving nine for the YSR Congress.
However, Naidu’s fortunes declined when he exited the NDA before the 2019 elections, upset with the BJP-led Union government's refusal to grant Special Category Status to the state post-bifurcation, despite a special package promise. Running independently, Naidu faced a significant defeat in 2019, winning only 23 Assembly seats, and the TDP’s Lok Sabha seats dropping from 15 to three. The BJP’s vote share fell from 4 per cent in 2014 to less than 1 per cent in 2019.
A decade after their 2014 success, the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance has improved, but doubts remain about whether it can replicate its previous success in the 2024 elections.
