Exit polls predict Congress to form govt Haryana, NC alliance leads in J-K

Exit polls suggest a shift in leadership and political sentiment in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections. The counting of votes will take place on October 8

Exit polls for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, released on Saturday evening, indicate a possible political shake-up in both regions with Congress making a strong comeback. The exit polls indicate that the Congress party is on track to regain control of Haryana after a decade in Opposition, ousting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from power. Released after the conclusion of voting on Saturday, the exit polls predict the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance leading in Jammu and Kashmir, however, without a clear majority the region may see a hung Assembly.

Congress to form govt in Haryana: Exit polls

In Haryana, voters turned out in significant numbers, with about 61 per cent participation recorded by 5 pm on Saturday. The state’s 90 Assembly seats are up for grabs, and any party or coalition needs to secure at least 46 seats to form the government. The Congress has been buoyed by the anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP, as indicated by the exit polls.

 

According to Dainik Bhaskar’s poll, Congress is expected to win between 44 and 54 seats, while the BJP may be limited to 19-29 seats. This would mark a significant shift from the last election, where the BJP secured 40 seats and formed a coalition government with the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), which had won 10 seats.

The Bhaskar survey also predicts minimal success for the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD)-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance, estimating only 1-5 seats, while the JJP and its ally, the Azad Samaj Party are expected to win just one seat.
 

Another exit poll by Republic Matrize presents a more favourable outcome for Congress, projecting 55-62 seats for the party, while the BJP may secure up to 24 seats. Smaller parties, including the INLD, are predicted to win between two and eight seats. The contest for the Chief Minister’s post in Haryana is likely to see former Congress Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda emerge as the frontrunner, though party leaders Kumari Selja and Randeep Singh Surjewala have also shown interest in the position. On the BJP’s side, incumbent Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini is set to retain his post if the party defies expectations and wins.

Tough contest in J-K with no clear majority: Exit polls

Meanwhile, in Jammu and Kashmir, the first Assembly elections held in a decade concluded with a mixed outlook. Despite the Congress-NC alliance leading in most exit polls, there is widespread prediction of a hung Assembly.

Voting took place in three phases, with an overall turnout of 63.88 per cent, higher than the 58.58 per cent recorded in the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year. Various exit polls present different outcomes, but none predicts a clear majority for any single party or coalition.
 

The India Today-CVoter poll projects 40-48 seats for the Congress-NC alliance, while the BJP is expected to win between 27 and 32 seats, with the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and others taking a smaller share of the remaining seats.
 

Dainik Bhaskar’s survey offers a similar outlook, with the BJP expected to win 20-25 seats, while the Congress-NC coalition is projected to win between 35 and 40 seats. RepublicTV-Matrize’s prediction falls in line with these estimates, suggesting the BJP may secure 28-30 seats and the Congress-NC alliance 31-36 seats.
 

Axis MyIndia, meanwhile, presents a wider range, predicting up to 34 seats for the BJP and up to 45 for the Congress-NC coalition.

Congress improves election performance

Overall, the exit polls signal a shift in political dynamics in both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. The Congress party is potentially making significant gains after years of BJP dominance. However, the final results remain to be seen, and the possibility of coalition governments looms large in both states.

This aligns with the Lok Sabha election results earlier this year which saw Congress secure 99 seats, forming the official Opposition with their highest seat count in a decade. In the 2019 general elections, the party had failed to secure a substantial number of seats, winning only 52.

The Congress had secured 45.43 per cent votes in the 2024 General Elections, while BJP won 46.06 per cent votes. In 2019, the two parties had secured 51.38 per cent and 31.88 per cent of votes, respectively.

About exit polls
 

Exit polls are surveys conducted immediately after voters leave polling stations, used to predict election outcomes based on their responses. Exit polls do not reflect the official or final election outcomes. The actual results may vary as votes are counted and officially declared.