Exit polls proven wrong again as BJP, Cong-NC take lead in Assembly races

Almost all exit poll surveys had declared a Congress clean-sweep in Haryana and hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir but the trends have proven both polls wrong

As the counting of votes for the 2024 Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir Assembly elections progresses, the trends suggest yet another instance of exit polls missing the mark. In Haryana, by 1.45 pm, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appeared to be heading for victory, leading in 50 constituencies. In contrast, in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance was firmly ahead, leading in 52 seats.

A far cry from what the exit polls predicted for both the states, the trends suggest another setback for companies declaring these exit polls after the Lok Sabha 2024 election debacle. The exit poll results for the Haryana Assembly Elections had predicted a clean sweep for the Congress, ending the BJP’s 10-year rule in the Hindi heartland. 

Also Read: Haryana elections 2024: Complete list of winners for 90 Assembly seats

 

Exit polls declared Congress clean-sweep in Haryana

For instance, the Axis My India exit poll had projected Congress to secure a majority with 53-65 seats in the 90-seat Haryana Assembly, while the BJP was expected to take just 18-28 seats, and the INLD-BSP alliance, 1-5 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was not expected to win any seats.

Similarly, Republic TV-Matrize had forecast 55-62 seats for Congress, with the BJP trailing at 18-24 seats. Dainik Bhaskar’s survey also predicted Congress would win 44-54 seats, the BJP would get 15-29, and others would take 4-9 seats.

However, as per the latest Election Commission (EC) trends, the BJP is now projected to win 50 seats in Haryana. Despite Congress leading earlier in the day, a surprising shift during counting put the BJP back in front. By 1:50 pm, Congress had leads in 34 of the 90 seats.

Read More: Jammu & Kashmir elections 2024: Check complete winners list for 90 seats

Who would win the J-K elections 2024 as per exit polls?

In Jammu & Kashmir, most exit polls predicted a hung assembly. Contrary to these forecasts, EC trends now show a decisive win for the Congress-NC alliance. To form a government in J&K, a party needs 46 seats in the 90-member assembly.

The Congress and NC formed an alliance against the BJP in the J&K Assembly elections. According to Axis My India, the BJP was predicted to win 24-34 seats with a 21 per cent vote share, while the Congress-NC-CPIM alliance was expected to take 35-45 seats, with a 38 per cent vote share. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) led by Mehbooba Mufti was projected to win 4-6 seats, holding 9 per cent of the vote share. This poll estimated that NC would take 24 seats, Congress 14, and CPIM half a seat.

Seat projections change in J-K

Dainik Bhaskar, on the other hand, predicted the NC-Congress alliance would secure 35-40 seats, with the BJP getting 20-25. Independents were expected to perform better than the PDP, which was forecasted to win 4-7 seats. Republic-Gulistan anticipated 31-36 seats for the NC-Congress and 28-30 for the BJP, with independents playing a pivotal role with 19-23 seats and the PDP securing 5-7 seats.

However, if the current EC trends hold, the Congress-NC alliance may win 52 seats in J&K. Independents are leading in seven seats, while the BJP remains far from the majority, holding 28 seats. Farooq Abdullah's NC is on track to become the largest party, with 43 seats.

Exit polls went wrong in Lok Sabha 2024 too

Exit polls also missed the mark in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where many predicted the BJP-led NDA would win over 350 seats. However, the BJP ended up with 240 out of 543 seats, while Congress, in alliance with the INDIA bloc, made significant gains, winning 99 seats.