Congress-NC lead but exit polls predict hung Assembly in Jammu and Kashmir

J-K Assembly elections exit polls: Voting in three phases in Jammu and Kashmir concluded on Oct 3, witnessing a 63.88% voter turnout

Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections 2024: Exit polls, released after 6 pm on Saturday following the conclusion of voting in Haryana, show a strong lead for the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance. However, the coalition may face competition from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to secure a majority. A total of 90 seats are being contested, with any party or coalition needing 46 seats to form a government.

J-K polls: Major parties, alliances

Major political players in the fray include the Farooq Abdullah-led National Conference (NC), Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), and several independent candidates.

 

The Congress and NC entered into an electoral alliance, agreeing on seat-sharing, though a few seats saw ‘friendly competition’ between the two. The BJP is seeking to expand its presence in Jammu and Kashmir, while the PDP and DPAP are also key players vying for influence in the region.

India Today-CVoter exit poll: Congress-NC alliance leads

According to the India Today-C Voter exit poll, the Congress-NC alliance appears to be leading with a projected 40-48 seat share. This places the alliance in a strong position to form the next government in Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP, which has been seeking to consolidate its influence in the region, is predicted to secure between 27-32 seats. Despite making inroads in the previous elections, these numbers suggest the BJP may fall short of an outright majority.

Meanwhile, PDP, once a formidable force in the region, is expected to win between 6-12 seats. Smaller regional parties and independents are expected to secure around 6-11 seats combined.

However, a clear majority is not indicated which may lead to some tussle in forming a government.

BJP: 27-32

Congress-NC: 40-48

PDP: 6-12

Others: 6-11

Dainik Bhaskar exit poll: No clear majority

The Dainik Bhaskar exit poll offers a slightly different projection. It indicates the Congress-NC alliance leading with 35-40 seats, with no possibility for a majority. It projects the BJP to win 20-25 seats.
 

The PDP is expected to win 4-7 seats, while other parties together could secure between 12-16 seats, which could give them significant leverage in any post-election alliances.

BJP: 20-25

Congres-NC: 35-40

PDP: 4-7

Others: 12-16

RepublicTV-Matrize exit polls: Hung Assembly

According to the RepublicTV-Matrize exit polls, both the BJP and Congress-NC alliance fall short the majority, suggesting a neck-and-neck competition for power. With 90 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, this close result could lead to a hung Assembly, where no single party or alliance has a clear majority.

BJP: 28-30

Congress-NC: 31-36

PDP: 5-7

Others: 8-16

Axis MyIndia exit polls: Coalition needed to form majority

The Axis MyIndia exit poll results for the Jammu and Kashmir elections shows Congress-NC alliance to be leading, however, the alliance still falls short in securing majority. The BJP could also seek alliances to influence the outcome.

BJP: 24-34

Congress-NC: 35-45

PDP: 4-6

Others: 8-23

 

J-K elections: Polling and voter turnout

Voting for the 90-seat Assembly in Jammu and Kashmir was done in three phases, concluding on October 3.

Overall, 63.88 per cent turnout has been recorded at polling stations, compared to 58.58 per cent turnout in the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year, the Election Commission said. The final votes polled will be released after postal ballots are counted. Postal ballot voting is available to service voters, absentee voters (those above 85 years of age, persons with disabilities, and those who are part of essential services) and voters on election duty.

In Jammu and Kashmir, where the last Assembly election took place in 2014, exit polls had forecast a hung Assembly, with the Peoples’ Democratic Party having an advantage over the BJP, National Conference (NC), and Congress.

Polls in Jammu and Kashmir marked the first election in the region since Article 370 was abrogated, revoking its ‘special status’. The last Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir took place in 2014, however, the government fell in 2018 when the BJP withdrew its support from Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party-led administration.

About exit polls

Exit polls are surveys conducted immediately after voters leave polling stations, used to predict election outcomes based on their responses. Exit polls do not reflect the official or final election outcomes. The actual results may vary as votes are counted and officially declared.