Amid a consolidation of Scheduled Tribes (STs) behind it, the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) was on Saturday set to notch up its best ever seats tally and vote share in Jharkhand since it was created almost a quarter century back.
The JMM was on course to win 34 seats, with a vote share of 23.30 per cent, improving upon its previous best of 30 seats and 18.72 per cent vote share, which it secured five years back. The JMM-led alliance, which also comprises the Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal and CPI (ML) Liberation, had won, or was leading in, 56 of the state’s 81-seats.
The BJP, on the other hand, had won, or was leading in, 21-seats, with a vote share of 33.28 per cent, which is now its second successive defeat in Jharkhand. In 2019, it had won 25 seats and secured a vote share of 33.37 per cent. The reason for the BJP's loss five years back, as it was on Saturday, was the same – the disillusionment of the STs with its politics.
However, unlike five years back, when the state’s STs had rejected the BJP for appointing Raghubar Das, a non-tribal, as the chief minister from 2014 to 2019, the angst against it emanated from the imprisonment of Chief Minister and JMM leader Hemant Soren in a money laundering case.
In 2019, the BJP could win only two – Torpa and Khunti - of the 28 seats reserved for STs in the state. This time, it lost these two seats also and by margins of over 40,000 votes each. The only ST seat it could win was thanks to the turncoat former CM Champai Soren, who had quit JMM to join the BJP and won his Saraikella seat on a BJP ticket.
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The support to Soren-led JMM also came from women because of his government’s scheme for them, which his government launched in the run-up to the polls. The scheme entitles women from 18 to 49 years of age to receive Rs 1,000 monthly. Soren has promised to increase the allowance to Rs 2,500. The turnout of women voters was better than that of men in the polls, as it has been since 2014. An exit poll had found that 45 per cent of the women voters preferred the JMM-led alliance, while only 37 per cent voted for the BJP-led NDA. Another highlight of the poll campaign was the emergence of Hemant Soren’s wife Kalpana, who addressed several well-attended public meetings.
Debutant trouble for NDA
The All Jharkhand Students Union Party (AJSU), which has its support base among the Mahato community of the state, and which is also an ally of the BJP, was leading in a solitary seat. The debutant Jharkhand Lokantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM), which also has its base among the state’s Mahato community, seems to have dented NDA's prospects on several seats. JLKM chief Jairam Kumar Mahato, a 30-year-old research scholar, won the Dumri Assembly seat. JLKM candidates emerged runners up on a couple of seats, pushing the BJP and AJSU candidates to the number three spot. In Chandankiyari, for example, the BJP candidate, leader of the opposition in the Assembly, Amar Kumar Barui, not only lost to the JMM candidate, but ended up at the number three spot, behind the JLKM candidate.
Despite topmost BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma and Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan campaigning indefatigably in Jharkhand, the BJP-led NDA lacked a chief ministerial face in the state while the JMM had one in Hemant Soren. The NDA's campaign centred on “infiltration from Bangladesh” and “corruption”, neither of which resonated with the electorate of the state.