 "Narendra Modi, Mamata Banerjee")
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) remarkable performance in West Bengal during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, securing 18 out of the state’s 42 seats, appears to be more than a fleeting success, as exit polls anticipates an even stronger showing this time around.
Projections suggest that the BJP is poised to become the dominant force in Bengal, potentially dealing a significant blow to the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC). According to several exit polls, the BJP is likely to emerge as the single-largest party in terms of Lok Sabha seats.
Jan Ki Baat forecasts between 21 and 26 seats for the BJP, with 16-18 seats predicted for the Trinamool Congress. Similarly, India News-D-Dynamics indicates 21 seats for the BJP against 19 for the Trinamool, while Republic Bharat-Matrize anticipates 21 seats for the BJP and 25 for the Trinamool, projecting a decline in the latter's tally to between 16 and 20 seats.
According to exit poll conducted by R Bangla, a significant shift in electoral fortunes from the 2019 results is anticipated, with the BJP poised to secure 22 seats while the Trinamool is projected to clinch 18.
Polls paint bleak picture from Congress
Among the various exit polls conducted, all converge on the prognosis that the Congress is unlikely to surpass its 2019 performance, during which it secured a mere two seats. Projections vary, with Jan Ki Baat suggesting the possibility of 0-2 constituencies for the party, India News-D-Dynamics indicating a tally of 2, and Republic Bharat-Matrize forecasting a range between 0 and 1. Notably, the R Bangla poll predicts a bleak outcome, suggesting that the Congress may fail to register any wins in the state.
While it remains premature to pinpoint the factors favouring the BJP's resurgence, the party has evidently intensified its efforts in the state, regrouping after suffering a significant setback in the 2021 Assembly elections. Moreover, the BJP faced defections following its modest performance of securing only 77 out of 294 Assembly seats, falling short of its ambitious target of 200.
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In its renewed campaign, the BJP emphasised allegations of corruption within the Trinamool Congress and accused the party, along with Banerjee, of favouring Muslims, thereby making it a central electoral issue. Additionally, the party capitalised on a significant controversy earlier this year, when allegations of sexual assault were levelled against a prominent Trinamool figure, Sheikh Shahjahan, and two associates, in Sandeshkhali village near the Bangladesh border.
While the Trinamool refuted these allegations, attributing them to disputes over land, the BJP successfully amplified them into a pivotal election issue. Even amidst controversy, including videos purportedly showing a local BJP leader insinuating that the assault allegations were fabricated for financial gain, the impact on Banerjee's party seems undiminished according to the exit polls.
BJP poised for success in WB elections
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier expressed confidence in the BJP’s prospects in West Bengal, describing the electoral contest as heavily skewed in the party’s favour and suggesting that Trinamool Congress leaders are grappling with frustration.
“In Bengal elections, the TMC party is fighting for existence. You must have seen it in the last assembly elections, we had three seats. The people of Bengal took us from three to 80. We got a lot of support in the Lok Sabha in the last elections. This time, the best-performing state in India is going to be West Bengal. BJP is getting the most success in West Bengal,” said the Prime Minister in an interview with news agency ANI.
