Exit polls predict major gains for BJP in Odisha, Bengal, southern India

Congress may see marginal improvement, while regional players could face setbacks, say exit polls

The exit polls released on Saturday after the seventh and final phase of polling for the Lok Sabha elections ended, predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance was set to improve upon its 2019 tally. Some projected that it might even surpass the 400-seat mark out of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats, a feat achieved only once before by a party or a pre-poll alliance.

Some exit polls said the BJP would likely sweep Odisha, emerge as the leading party in West Bengal, and make further inroads in the southern states, especially Tamil Nadu and Kerala. However, it could suffer marginal losses compared to 2019 in states such as Rajasthan, Bihar, and Haryana.

 

The leaders of the INDIA bloc parties met in the afternoon in the national capital. They said they did not trust the exit polls and asserted that their alliance would win at least 295 seats. However, the exit polls were not good news for the Congress, with most projecting that it might marginally improve upon the 52 seats it won in 2019.

The election results could ring alarm bells for several regional players, the exit polls projected. The Left parties in Kerala, Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana, the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal were set to suffer, the exit polls projected.

According to the Axis-My India exit poll projections, the BJP-led NDA could win as many as 401 seats. It said the NDA could win seats in the range of 361 to 401 seats, while the BJP, on its own, could win between 322 to 340, its best-ever performance. The BJP won 282 and 303 seats in 2014 and 2019, respectively. The ABP-C Voter exit poll also painted a similar picture, estimating the NDA's likely tally at a formidable 353 to 383 seats. Today's Chanakya said the NDA could win 400 seats.

According to Axis-My India, the BJP could gain in West Bengal by bettering the Trinamool Congress' vote and seat share. It said the BJP could bag a 46 per cent vote share to the Trinamool's 43 per cent and win 26 to 31 seats, almost double the seats of Bengal's ruling party, which it predicted could win 11 to 14 seats.

Another gain for the BJP could be in Odisha, where the agency projected the BJP winning at least 20 of its 21 seats. Odisha also held its Assembly polls. The pollsters predicted that the BJP's gamble of aligning with the Telugu Desam Party and Jana Sena Party could pay off in Andhra Pradesh, another state that has witnessed simultaneously held Assembly polls, with the alliance shown to be winning a majority of the state's 25 seats.

The Axis-My India poll projected that the Congress could win 60 to 76 seats by maintaining its wins from 2019 in Kerala and Punjab and gaining some seats in Haryana and Rajasthan, while the INDIA bloc could win 131 to 166 seats. The BJP's improved performance was attributed to the popularity of the Centre's social welfare schemes, especially free ration and continuing support from the women.

Some exit polls predicted that the BJP could face some attrition in Karnataka, especially the Hyderabad Karnataka region, but benefit in southern Karnataka from aligning with the Janata Dal (Secular). The BJP could improve its vote share from the three per cent it secured in 2019 in Tamil Nadu to 14 per cent. However, the rival DMK-led alliance would repeat its performance from five years back.

In Kerala, according to Axis-My India, Congress' Shashi Tharoor could lose to BJP's Rajeev Chandrasekhar in Thiruvananthapuram. The BJP-led alliance was projected to increase its vote share to 27 per cent in the state, which the Congress-led United Democratic Front was again likely to sweep, the exit poll projected.

In Maharashtra, according to Axis-My India, the BJP was likely to maintain its 23 wins, as it has contested 28 seats, three more than 2019. Still, its allies, the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, could suffer. It projected that the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena could perform creditably, winning nine to 11 of the 21 seats it has contested.

Similarly, in Bihar, another ally of the BJP, the Janata Dal (United), could prove to be the weak link in the alliance. The Rashtriya Janata Dal was projected to win six to seven seats in Bihar, against none it could in 2019. In the neighbouring Jharkhand, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha could gain a couple of seats because of the sympathy for former chief minister Hemant Soren because of his incarceration.

The exit poll predicted a BJP sweep in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh, and said the BJP-led NDA's performance in Uttar Pradesh was likely to be closer to the 2014 result in the state than 2019. The exit poll claimed it could win 64 to 67 seats in UP. In Punjab, the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was likely to turn in a poor performance and likely win only the Sangrur seat, which Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann had won in 2019. He vacated it three years later after becoming the chief minister of the state.

In Delhi, the exit poll said the BJP would maintain its dominance with only the Chandni Chowk seat likely to see a close fight.

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