 "Political strategist-turned-activist Prashant Kishor")
Indian political strategist Prashant Kishor, often referred to as PK, predicted a resounding victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 18th Lok Sabha elections. Speaking to media outlets, Kishor expressed confidence in the ruling party securing a majority and forming the next government even without the support of its allied parties. The exit polls released by five outlets aligned with Kishor's views, leaning overwhelmingly towards the NDA's victory in the polls. However, trends in vote counting painted a different picture.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 303 seats, contributing to an NDA total of 353 seats. The Congress secured 53 seats, and its allies won 38. The 2024 exit polls believed the results in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections to be similar to those in 2019, with the NDA maintaining a dominant position in the Lower House of the Parliament.
What did Prashant Kishor predict for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls?
Kishor believed the BJP would likely match or surpass its 2019 tally of 303 seats. He noted that while the BJP might not reach the target of 370 seats and the NDA's 400-plus seats, it should focus on achieving a majority of 272 seats. He also highlighted the BJP's potential for gains in the South and East, making it highly unlikely for the party to lose 100 seats to the Opposition. Kishor predicted Congress would secure fewer than 100 seats, which appears to be on point with the counting of votes placing the party's seat count at 98-99.
Kishor's rationale was that widespread anger was a crucial component in ousting any powerful and influential government. As this did not appear to be the case against PM Modi and the BJP, PK believed in BJP's success. However, this may not be the case.
"If there is anger against the incumbent government and its leader, there is a possibility that regardless of whether there is an alternative, people may decide to vote them out. So far, we have not heard that there is widespread public anger against Modiji. There may be disappointment, unfulfilled aspirations, but we have not heard of widespread anger," Kishor said.
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BJP: 303 or more seats
Congress: Less than 100
Congress in the Northeast
Early indications suggest the Congress Party has regained a foothold in Northeastern India. The party is poised to send its candidate from the sole Nagaland seat and both Manipur seats to parliament.
In the 2019 elections, Manipur's seats went to the BJP and the Naga People's Front (NPF).
In violence-hit Manipur, a three-layer security cordon has been enforced at the counting centres as the Lok Sabha election results are being decided. Manipur has two Lok Sabha constituencies: Inner Manipur and Outer Manipur. The Congress has expressed confidence in winning both seats, blaming the BJP government, both at the Centre and in the state, for failing to curb the year-long ethnic violence between the Kukis and Meiteis, which has resulted in more than 200 deaths.
Electoral reversal in Rajasthan
Union Minister Parshottam Rupala's remarks caused protests from a section of the Rajput community, which is dominant in Rajasthan. The unaddressed comments may have played a larger role than the ruling party may be willing to admit, as the state saw electoral reversals.
What did the exit polls say?
News 24Today's Chanakya: Estimated the NDA might secure 400 seats, with a margin of error of 15 seats. The INDIA bloc was predicted to get 107 seats, with 36 going to other parties.
ABPCVoter Survey: Predicted the NDA would win 353-383 seats, while the INDIA bloc would secure 152-182 seats.
News18 Mega Exit Poll: Anticipated the NDA to claim 355-370 seats, with the INDIA bloc getting 125-140 seats and others winning 42-52 seats.
Times NowETG Poll: Forecasted 358 seats for the NDA, 152 for the INDIA bloc, and 33 for others.
Jan Ki Baat Poll: Predicted 362-392 seats for the NDA and 141-161 for the INDIA bloc.
India TVCNX Poll: Projected 371-401 seats for the NDA and 109-139 seats for the Opposition.
News Nation Poll: Estimated 342-378 seats for the NDA and 153-169 for the INDIA bloc.
Exit polls overwhelmingly saw a decisive victory for the ruling BJP-led NDA alliance, underestimating the INDIA bloc.
Poll trends and vote count at 7:30 PM
As the counting of votes commenced on Tuesday, trends show a more competitive scenario:
BJP: Won 109, leading in 130 (239 in total)
NDA: Altogether leading in 290 seats.
Congress: Won 14, leading in 56 (99 seats total)
INDIA bloc: Altogether leading in 235 seats.
Others: 18
Prashant Kishor is yet to make any public comment regarding the 2024 Lok Sabha election results.
