Viewers beware: Five times when exit polls proved to be really wrong

Lok Sabha elections will conclude today with the final round of voting in 57 constituencies across eight states and UTs

With the final lap of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections underway, all eyes are on the exit polls, which are expected to be aired from 6:30PM today. Political pundits Prashant Kishor and Yogendra Yadav have come out with divergent score cards for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition.

Kishor has estimated that the BJP will mirror its 2019 performance of securing about 303 seats, Yadav believes the saffron party will fall short of the majority mark of 272.

Whether Kishor or Yadav, who is closer to predicting the actual outcome, might be revealed in today’s exit polls. But, beware. History shows that exit polls can be wildly inaccurate, and the actual outcome may surprise us yet again.

 

How are exit polls conducted?

The exit polls are a rough estimate meant to gauge the general voter sentiment during an election. The results of exit polls are concluded based on interviews conducted with the voters right after exit polling stations during the elections.

In 2019, the majority of the exit polls had predicted that the BJP-led NDA would return to power, however, in many surveys the estimates for the BJP-led coalition varied a lot compared to the actual outcome.

Five instances after 2000s when exit polls were wildly wrong:

1) 2004 Lok Sabha polls: Banking on the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s all-time high popularity, the government called for an earlier Lok Sabha elections. The BJP was confident of its victory, bolstered by its wins in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. Majority of the exit polls predicted that BJP and its allies (NDA) would get a comfortable victory between 240 to 275 seats. However, the results were surprisingly different. The National Democratic Alliance won only 187 seats, while the Congress and its allies won 216 seats.

2) Bihar Assembly elections 2020: In the Bihar Assembly elections 2020, most of the exit polls had predicted a clear win for the Tejashwi Yadav led Mahagatbandhan, but it was ultimately the BJP-JD(U) alliance that emerged victorious.

3) Bihar Assembly elections 2015: Majority of the exit polls failed to predict the decisive victory of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United) (JDU) and the Congress coalition. Many pollsters predicted a tight race and were leaning towards the BJP. However, the Grand Alliance won 178 out of the 243 seats in the state.

4) West Bengal Assembly elections 2021: Prominent private exit poll surveys such as India Today’s Axis My India and Republic-CNX poll had positioned the BJP as leading in the Assembly elections, however, the saffron party won only 77 seats in the polls, defeated by Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress’s tally of 213 seats out of the total 294 seats.

5) Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls 2017: Majority of the pollsters had predicted a hung assembly in UP during that 2017 Assembly elections, while recognising the BJP as the largest party. Contrary to projections, the BJP had a landslide victory with 312 seats of the total 403 seats in the state.

The Delhi Assembly elections 2015 and the 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly elections are also two notable instances when the exit polls were way off the mark compared to the actual election outcome.