 "Prashant Kishor")
As the Lok Sabha elections inch closer to their conclusion, the anticipation around the results is intensifying. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Trinamool Congress, and other parties are confident of securing victory in the general elections and the simultaneous Assembly polls in some states. Meanwhile, political strategist Prashant Kishor has outlined his surprising projections, which may ruffle some feathers in political circles.
10 poll predictions made by Prashant Kishor:
1. BJP's return to power:
In a recent interview, Kishor stated that he believes the BJP will return to power. However, he dismissed the idea of the BJP securing 400 seats with its allies as a "psychological" tactic. He expects Prime Minister Narendra Modi to return on June 4, with results mirroring the 2019 performance or slightly better. In 2019, the BJP won 303 seats, improving its 2014 performance of 282 seats.
2. Public dissent:
Kishor identified public dissent as a key hurdle for the BJP-led government, citing rural distress, rising inequalities, and unemployment as significant challenges. "In a country where more than 60 crore people don't earn more than Rs 100 per day, opposition to the government can never be weakened. Never make that mistake," he said.
3. Decline in Modi's popularity:
Kishor mentioned a decline in Modi's popularity, suggesting that the carefully crafted image of Modi as a Hindutva leader and statesman has been dented. He believes PM Modi is "aware" of this development.
4. Opposition's missed opportunities:
Kishor noted that the BJP's victories are less about their exceptional performance and more about "missed opportunities and dropped catches by the opposition."
5. BJP strongholds in north and west:
He predicted that the BJP would not face substantial decline in the northern and western regions, its stronghold areas. Kishor said the party would need to lose 100 seats in these regions to face defeat, adding that they should not gain any in the East and South.
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6. Rising influence in south and east:
Kishor observed that the BJP's vote share and seats are rising in the South and East, areas where the party has made significant efforts to expand, while the opposition has made little effort.
7. Rahul Gandhi's Raebareli decision:
Kishor criticised Rahul Gandhi's decision to contest from Uttar Pradesh's Raebareli instead of Amethi, saying it "doesn't make any strategic sense." He believes this move will only "further disappoint" Gandhi's voters.
8. Opposition alliance:
For the opposition to defeat the BJP, Kishor believes five parties - Congress, Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal, and the NCP-Shiv Sena-Congress alliance in Maharashtra - would need a 30 per cent strike rate.
9. BJP's success in Odisha and beyond:
Kishor predicted a guaranteed victory for the BJP in the Odisha Assembly polls and suggested the BJP could be the number one party in West Bengal. He also noted the BJP's rising vote share in Tamil Nadu and its potential to be the first or second party in Telangana.
10. Challenges for Jagan Mohan Reddy:
For the Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections, Kishor said Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy would find it "very difficult" to come back to power. Kishor had worked for Reddy in 2019 when his YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) won the polls.
