Plateau to coast: BJP breaks barriers in South, East with one major ally

The BJP retained its winning streak in Karnataka where per reports it led in 18 out of the 28 Lok Sabha seats while the Congress was ahead in 10

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) suffered setbacks in its traditional strongholds in the North and West, but parts of the East and South partially compensated for the losses incurred in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan.

The BJP made spectacular breakthroughs in the peninsular plateau of Odisha and Telangana, as well as along the Coromandel coast in Andhra Pradesh and southwestward to the Malabar coastline bordering Kerala.

While the prospective seat gains in Odisha, Telangana, and Kerala were achieved on BJP’s own steam, the success in Andhra Pradesh — which held simultaneous polls for the Lok Sabha (LS) and Assembly — was largely due to its allies, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Jana Sena Party (JSP), which bolstered the NDA’s overall tally.

 

The BJP retained its winning streak in Karnataka, where reports indicated it led in 18 of the 28 LS seats, while the Congress was ahead in 10.

In Karnataka, the BJP forged an alliance with the Janata Dal (Secular), headed by H D Kumaraswamy, the son of former prime minister H D Deve Gowda.

The BJP calculated that the tie-up would help the party secure votes from the Vokkaliga caste and augment its share of the Lingayat votes. However, given the controversies surrounding the Gowda family — most egregiously the alleged rape and molestation charges against Prajwal Revanna, a grandson — it remains speculative whether the alliance yielded the expected benefits for the BJP.

According to reports, Revanna was trailing in Hassan behind his Congress rival, despite the seat being a clan stronghold.

The BJP scripted history in Odisha, appearing poised to end the Biju Janata Dal’s (BJD’s) 24-year-long rule by installing its own government. The BJP was comfortably ahead of the BJD in the leads posted for the LS polls. The BJP’s alliance with the BJD, marked by a bonhomie between Chief Minister (CM) Naveen Patnaik and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, ended with the 2024 elections.

Led by Modi and Amit Shah, the home minister, the BJP conducted a belligerent campaign against Patnaik, focusing less on the omissions and commissions of his government and more on the CM himself. Patnaik apparently made a tactical error by handing over the election campaign to a former bureaucrat-turned-confidant, V K Pandian.

Pandian is Tamilian, and Shah played on regional sentiments in Odisha by insinuating that Patnaik had anointed a “Tamil babu” as his successor, which the CM later denied. Other BJP campaigners added to the confusion by questioning Patnaik’s well-being.

The BJP may not have completely reworked the Odisha narrative, but there was a sense that it saw an opportunity to go on the offensive against Patnaik, who seemed more vulnerable this time, according to a BJP source.

With Odisha and parts of the Northeast under its control, the BJP can prospectively consolidate its hold over the East in the coming years, although West Bengal remains a challenge.

In Andhra Pradesh, the ousting of the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) government, led by Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, provided the BJP with more than a foothold on terrain that had previously been inhospitable. The near-clean sweep in both the LS and Assembly polls was catalysed by an alliance with the TDP and the JSP.

TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu, who was virtually under siege after losing the 2019 elections, fought the battle as if there were no tomorrow. Aware that the BJP always extended a hand of friendship to Reddy, he nonetheless took a gamble by aligning with the BJP, hoping that a “friendly” Centre would support his prospective government by becoming a direct stakeholder.

On the other hand, the BJP initially hesitated over Naidu, given their bitter parting after a five-year alliance. However, after assessing that the tide was turning against the YSRCP, the BJP cast its lot with Naidu, recognising that a presence along the Coromandel coast outweighed the cost of partnering with a mercurial politician.

The BJP went solo in Andhra’s neighbour, Telangana, and the gamble paid off.

Reports indicated it was ahead of the Congress, which has a four-year-old government in Hyderabad focused on welfare politics. Undeterred by the defeat in the last Assembly polls, the BJP worked hard on rebuilding its base in Telangana through tactics centred on communal politics, welfare promises, and Modi’s persona.

Tamil Nadu did not offer any succour to the BJP despite Modi’s concerted push to engage voters through a series of measures since 2023, including the Sengol display in the new Parliament to hark back to the Chola regime, the Kashi Sangamam congregation in Varanasi, and the celebration of the Tamil language. Even K Annamalai, its star campaigner and leader, was trailing in Coimbatore when reports last came in.

However, Kerala on Cape Comorin might provide the breakthrough the BJP has long sought.

Two seats — Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram — offered the opening it badly needed. If the BJP wins the latter, it would have the added satisfaction of its candidate Rajeev Chandrasekhar defeating the high-profile Congressman, Shashi Tharoor.