Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha election results: What worked in favour of INDIA?

The Lok Sabha elections 2024 has witnessed several unexpected turns, particularly the impressive performance of INDIA in Uttar Pradesh. What contributing factors have bolstered the Opposition's perfor

It appears to be a setback for the ruling party in Uttar Pradesh. Despite the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) expected to secure victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, trends suggest setbacks for the ruling party in the Hindi heartland, notably in Uttar Pradesh.

As of 5 pm, Election Commission data indicated that the BJP was leading in 34 seats out of the state’s 80 in the lower house. Its ally, Jayant Chaudhry’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), was leading in two others, with Apna Dal ahead in one seat. Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party (SP) was leading in 36 seats, while the Congress was leading in seven. These trends contrast with the forecasts of exit polls for Uttar Pradesh. 

 

We delve deeper to understand the dynamics at play in Uttar Pradesh, the disparities from the exit polls, and the underlying factors contributing to this evolving scenario.

What has transpired thus far?
 

As the counting commenced today, all attention was fixated on Uttar Pradesh to gauge the performance of the BJP and its coalition partners in the state, renowned for its significant representation in the Lok Sabha. By afternoon, emerging trends posed a cause for concern for the NDA.

The NDA, comprising the BJP, RLD, and Apna Dal, was leading in 39 constituencies, whereas the INDI Alliance, led by Akhilesh Yadav’s SP and supported by Congress, was ahead in 40 seats.

Interestingly, Congress’s Rahul Gandhi was leading in the Rae Bareli constituency, while Akhilesh Yadav maintained a lead in Kannauj. Union Minister Smriti Irani, on the other hand, trailed behind in her Amethi stronghold.

These trends have sent shockwaves among the NDA and its supporters, as well as within the realm of political analysis. This outcome starkly contrasts with the predictions of exit polls, which projected a sweeping victory for the NDA with 68-71 seats, while estimating the INDI Alliance to secure merely nine-12 seats.

What happened in Uttar Pradesh in the past?

In recent times, Uttar Pradesh (UP) has witnessed significant shifts compared to its electoral landscape in the 2019 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections. 

Five years ago, during the 2019 polls, the BJP secured a substantial victory, clinching 62 out of the 80 seats in the state. Additionally, its coalition partner, the Apna Dal (Sonelal), secured two more seats.

During the 2019 elections, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) emerged as the runner-up with 10 seats, while the SP secured a modest tally of five seats. The Congress party only managed to secure a single seat. It is noteworthy that during this period, the BSP and SP were in a coalition.

Of the 62 seats secured by the BJP in 2019, the majority, comprising 23 seats, hailed from the western region of the state. Furthermore, the BJP made significant gains in the Bundelkhand region, securing victory in all four Lok Sabha seats of Jhansi, Banda, Hamirpur, and Jalaun-SC.

A decade earlier, in 2014, the BJP and its allies dominated the electoral scene in UP, securing victory in 73 out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats.

Reasons for BJP’s disappointing performance in UP
 

There are several factors influencing the outcomes. Many predicted that the construction of the Ram Mandir would sway votes in favour of the BJP. However, this doesn’t seem to be the case. In fact, Faizabad, the home constituency of the Ram Mandir, has also voted in favour of the SP, with its candidate Awadhesh Prasad leading by a significant margin against the BJP candidate.

Additionally, Akhilesh Yadav has diligently worked to make inroads into the non-Yadav OBC vote. It is for this reason that he fielded only five candidates from the Yadav community — all from his family — in its 62 seats.

“The party’s vote share increased when it joined hands with smaller parties, who drew the support of non-Yadav OBCs. The party has accommodated candidates from other communities to reach out to voters of other OBC groups and upper castes,” an SP leader was quoted by Indian Express as saying.

In an attempt to garner more votes, the SP chief modified his ‘M-Y’ or Muslim-Yadav formula to “PDA” or “Pichde (backward classes or OBCs), Dalits, Alpasankhyak (minorities)”. He fielded 27 candidates from other OBCs, 11 upper castes (including four Brahmins, two Thakurs, two Vaishyas and one Khatri) and four Muslims. Additionally, 15 Dalit candidates were nominated in SC-reserved seats.

According to an NDTV report, the ‘UP ke ladke’ pitch also appears to resonate with the people of the state. Although this formula was last tried in 2017, a more seasoned Akhilesh and Rahul seem to have altered the landscape.

There is also no Mayawati factor at play. Even as counting progresses, the BSP is not leading on any seat; this is not favourable news for Mayawati.

Furthermore, from the Nagina seat, Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad is leading while the BSP candidate is trailing behind in the fourth spot. A victory for Azad and a significant setback for BSP indicate that the Dalit voter base has found new leaders.