 "Prashant Kishor")
Indian political strategist Prashant Kishor, often referred to as PK, predicted the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) securing a resounding victory in the 18th Lok Sabha elections. Speaking to media outlets, PK shared his confidence in the ruling party securing a majority and forming the next government even without the support of its allied parties. The exit polls released by five outlets tell a different story.
What do the exit polls say for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls?
Several surveys have forecasted the election outcomes, projecting a strong performance for the NDA:
ABP-CVoter Survey: NDA is predicted to win 353-383 seats, while the opposition INDIA bloc is expected to secure 152-182 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha.
News18 Mega Exit Poll: NDA is anticipated to claim 355-370 seats, with INDIA bloc securing 125-140 seats and other parties winning 42-52 seats.
Times Now-ETG Poll: NDA is forecasted to win 358 seats, followed by 152 for the INDIA bloc and 33 for others.
What do other exit polls predict for Lok Sabha 2024?
Jan Ki Baat Poll: Predicts 362-392 seats for the NDA and 141-161 for the INDIA bloc.
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India TV-CNX Poll: Projects 371-401 seats for the NDA and 109-139 seats for the opposition alliance.
News Nation Poll: Estimates 342-378 seats for the NDA and 153-169 for the INDIA bloc.
Comparison to the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 303 seats, contributing to an NDA total of 353 seats. The Congress secured 53 seats, and its allies won 38. If the 2024 exit polls prove accurate, the results will be similar to those in 2019, with the NDA maintaining a dominant position in the Lok Sabha.
INDIA Bloc's Strategic Moves
The INDIA bloc's formation was a strategic effort to consolidate opposition strength against the BJP. However, the exit polls suggest that despite their efforts, the NDA is likely to retain power with a significant majority. The final results, to be announced on 4 June, will confirm whether these predictions hold true.
Prashant Kishor's predictions for BJP and Congress
BJP: 303 or more seats
Congress: Less than 100
PK believes the BJP will likely match or surpass its 2019 tally of 303 seats. He added that while BJP may not meet the target of 370 seats and NDA's 400-plus seats, it should focus on achieving a majority of 272 seats. He added that the BJP has the potential for gains in the South and East, making it highly unlikely for the party to lose 100 seats to the Opposition. He added that Congress was likely to secure less than 100 seats.
Kishor's rationale behind these figures was that there was no widespread anger against PM Modi and BJP, which can play a crucial role in the ousting of a government.
"If there is anger against the incumbent government and its leader, there is a possibility that regardless of whether there is an alternative, people may decide to vote them out. So far, we have not heard that there is widespread public anger against Modiji. There may be disappointment, unfulfilled aspirations, but we have not heard of widespread anger," Kishor said.
However, Kishor does not see the party reaching its ambitious target of more than 400 seats with allied parties. Instead, he suggested the party focus on maintaining the 272-majority mark.
