 "Yogendra Yadav, Yogendra, election, vote")
Indian activist, psephologist, and politician Yogendra Yadav had predicted that while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to secure victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it may not be a decisive success like the last two general elections.
Contrary to his predictions, exit polls released on Saturday suggested a clear majority for the BJP, though early trends in vote counting appeared to support Yadav's more estimates.
As the counting of votes came in, it seems Yadav may have been closest to the real estimates, with the BJP scrapping the majority mark of 272 seats in Lok Sabha.
What did Yogendra Yadav predict for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls?
Yogendra Yadav had predicted a stronger influence from the Opposition alliance INDIA bloc led by Congress in the 2024 general elections. These were Yadav's predictions:
BJP: 240-260 seats
NDA: 35-45 seats
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Congress: 85 to 100 seats
INDIA bloc: 120 to 135 seats
Yadav emphasised that while the BJP would likely secure a victory, achieving their ambitious seat targets, particularly the "400 seats" claim, would be improbable.
He said that the BJP will find it difficult to exceed 260 seats and almost impossible to reach 300 seats.
"400 paar wali baat to total hawaii thi, 300 paar karna bhi BJP k liye namumkin hoga (While the 400 seats claim was flimsy, for BJP it will be difficult to win even 300 seats)," Yadav said in his prediction video.
Congress is expected to secure between 85 and 100 seats, a significant increase from 2019, with the INDIA bloc winning between 120 and 135 seats. Opposition alliance would overall secure 205 to 235 seats, challenging BJP.
Yadav believes that while the BJP remains a strong contender and will likely remain in power following the elections, achieving their ambitious seat goals will be a significant challenge, highlighting the potential for a more competitive election than the BJP might have anticipated.
What did the exit polls say?
The exit polls released ahead of the vote count predicted a decisive majority for the BJP and its allies:
News 24Today's Chanakya: Estimated the NDA might secure 400 seats, with a margin of error of 15 seats. The INDIA bloc was predicted to get 107 seats, with 36 going to other parties.
ABPCVoter Survey: Predicted the NDA would win 353-383 seats, while the INDIA bloc would secure 152-182 seats.
News18 Mega Exit Poll: Anticipated the NDA to claim 355-370 seats, with the INDIA bloc getting 125-140 seats, and others winning 42-52 seats.
Times NowETG Poll: Forecasted 358 seats for the NDA, 152 for the INDIA bloc, and 33 for others.
Jan Ki Baat Poll: Predicted 362-392 seats for the NDA and 141-161 for the INDIA bloc.
India TVCNX Poll: Projected 371-401 seats for the NDA and 109-139 seats for the Opposition.
News Nation Poll: Estimated 342-378 seats for the NDA and 153-169 for the INDIA bloc.
Poll trends and vote count at 6:30 PM on June 4
As the counting of votes commenced on Tuesday, early trends indicated a more competitive scenario:
BJP: Won 73, leading in 168 (241 in total)
NDA: Altogether leading in 294 seats.
Congress: Won 33, leading in 65 (98 seats total)
INDIA bloc: Altogether leading in 231 seats.
Others: 18
Others: 18
As the results came in, Yogendra Yadav wrote on social media, "If BJP's own seats fall below the majority figure i.e. 272, then this result will be seen as a defeat for BJP. Even if BJP is in a position to form the government in such a case, it will be considered that the mandate is against it."
आज सुबह के लेख से:
— Yogendra Yadav (@_YogendraYadav) June 4, 2024
अगर BJP की अपनी सीटें बहुमत के आँकड़े यानी 272 से नीचे रह गयी तो इस परिणाम को BJP की हार के रूप में ही देखा जाएगा। चाहे ऐसे में BJP सरकार बनाने की स्थिति में होगी लेकिन यह माना जाएगा कि जनादेश उसके ख़िलाफ़ है…
अगर BJP की सीटें 250 से कम रह जाती हैं तो इसे… pic.twitter.com/BfMwBgDMdx
