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Young voters set to shape India's political future in 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

The rising power of young voters in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections: How new demographics are shaping India's political future

Young Indian voters take selfie with inked finger after casting vote at model polling station in West Bengal | Photo: ECI

Young Indian voters take selfie with inked finger after casting vote at model polling station in West Bengal | Photo: ECI

Vasudha Mukherjee New Delhi
As India prepares for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, its young voters are emerging as a critical force poised to influence the political landscape. With over 18.5 million first-time voters aged 18-19 and a substantial portion of the electorate under 30, this demographic holds the potential to significantly sway the outcomes.

Political parties are again focusing on the engagement of young voters, who were instrumental in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) victories in 2014 and 2019. Campaigns and manifestos are increasingly tailored to address the concerns and aspirations of this dynamic group, highlighting the evolving nature of Indian democracy.

Ahead of the polling schedule, the Election Commission (EC) announced that 968.8 million people are registered to vote in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with 18.5 million of these voters aged 18-19, who will be casting their ballots for the first time.
 

Age distribution of voters in elections 2024


Youth voters (18-19 age group): 18.5 million (1.91 per cent of total registered voters), a 23.3 per cent increase from 15 million in 2019

Age group of 20-29: 197.4 million (20.38 per cent)

Above 80 years: 18.6 million (2 per cent)

Above 100 years: 238,000

As per these figures, around 22.29 per cent of registered voters fall below the age of 30. The youngest cohort of the youth vote (18-22 years) makes up nearly 13 per cent of the total voting population, according to an analysis of population data from the United Nations.

Increase in first-time voters by state


Many states have seen a substantial rise in the number of first-time voters in their finalised electoral rolls, which are as follows:

West Bengal: 1.13 million first-time voters

Odisha: 0.75 million

Maharashtra: 1.02 million

Kerala: 0.17 million

Bihar: 0.78 million

Andhra Pradesh: 0.53 million

Karnataka: 1.03 million

Tamil Nadu: 0.53 million

Enrollment rates of young voters


Despite this surge in numbers, the Election Commission of India (ECI) stated that only 38 per cent of these 18-19-year-olds who are eligible to vote have registered for the 2024 elections across the country, with certain states such as Bihar, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh showing even lower enrollment rates. Approximately 18 million new voters in this age-bracket have been recorded on the electoral rolls, the ECI revealed.

Given the estimated population of the 18-19-year-old demographic stands at just under 49 million, the ECI enrollment data means merely 38 per cent of these first-time voters are currently registered.

State-wise enrollment


Telangana: Over 800,000 18-19-year-olds enlisted on the rolls, constituting approximately 66.7 per cent of its projected population in this age group.

Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh: Enrollment rates exceeding 60 per cent.

Bihar: Just 930,000 enrolled out of a potential 5.4 million, translating to a mere 17 per cent. The enrollment rate was higher during the previous Lok Sabha elections, at 26.63 per cent.

Delhi and Uttar Pradesh: Enrollment rates of 21 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively.

Maharashtra: Recorded a slightly higher rate at 27 per cent, compared to 29.5 per cent in 2019.

Employment: Key concern for young voters


A Business Standard survey revealed that the highest priority for youth in the upcoming elections is employment, with a substantial 75.93 per cent of respondents emphasising its importance. This highlights a pressing concern among the younger demographic for job opportunities and economic stability, which they deem crucial for their future. The focus on employment also highlights the need for policies that foster job creation and support for young professionals entering the workforce.

Education follows as the second-highest priority for youth, with 12.89 per cent of respondents citing it as a critical issue. This indicates that the youth are not only concerned about finding jobs but also about acquiring the necessary skills and knowledge to be competitive in the job market. Improvements in the education system, access to quality education, and initiatives that enhance learning outcomes are evidently on the minds of young voters.

Healthcare is the third most important issue, with 6.47 per cent of respondents considering it a priority.

The remaining 4.71 per cent of respondents identified various other priorities, including cleanliness, skill development, ease of doing business, and easing norms for entrepreneurship.

There were also mentions of changes in the reservation system, fighting corruption, and enhancing women empowerment, especially in rural parts of the country, indicating a broader range of social and economic issues that youth believe need addressing.

Young voters disillusioned, consider nota vote

A recurring sentiment among young voters appears to be a lack of confidence in the current political landscape, with many considering the ‘None of the above’ (Nota) option. Introduced in 2013, Nota allows voters to reject all candidates if they feel none are suitable.

As one voter put it, “I would vote for Nota. It doesn’t matter who the next Prime Minister is because those in power never care about the common man. Health, education, and law & order are all in shambles. If these three things are not in order, how can the country progress?”

Another respondent told Business Standard, “India has many financial issues. Those who are rich are getting richer, and those who are poorer are falling farther under the poverty line. Employment services are really important. My personal preference would be to vote Nota.”

Another voter echoed this sentiment, stating, “Leaders should listen to what the public has to say. There were many issues that leaders did not mention on Twitter or any other social media platform.”

While some express discontent, others highlight specific sectors they believe are crucial for India’s growth. “People need to prioritise things that will help build our future, like the IT sector development is really important,” remarked a young voter.

The youth also revealed that their primary sources for information were news channels accessed digitally on phones. Some said they watched news channels on YouTube, while others had downloaded apps.

Outreach campaigns by ECI

The Election Commission of India launched several campaigns, such as ‘Turning 18’ and ‘You are the One’, to engage first-time voters under the theme 'Chunav Ka Parv, Desh Ka Garv.' The ECI expanded its social media presence to platforms like Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter), YouTube, Public App, WhatsApp Channel, and LinkedIn to reach out to young voters.

‘Turning 18’ campaign: This campaign addressed urban and youth voter apathy by targeting young and first-time voters for the 18th Lok Sabha Elections. It emphasised voting immediately upon turning 18 to foster civic responsibility.

‘You are the One’ campaign: This campaign celebrated contributions from all election stakeholders, including voters, political parties, and polling staff. It used storytelling and visuals to highlight their dedication, inspiring pride in their roles.

Engaging voters with stories and activities: The ECI also engaged voters through ‘Chunaavi Kisse’, sharing election stories, the A-Z of Indian Elections series, ‘Word play with ECI’, and ‘Sawal Jawab’ for answering electoral process questions. ‘Polls and Pixels’ offers a visual journey of Indian elections to mobilise young voters, reduce apathy, and enhance voter turnout.

Strategies of political parties


Congress’ Nyay vs BJP’s Sankalp Patra: Promises to youth

Congress and the BJP both unveiled manifestos promising significant changes tailored to the needs and aspirations of the younger population.

Nyaya Patra promises employment and social security

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and party president Mallikarjun Kharge introduced the party's manifesto, ‘Nyaya Patra” (Document of Justice), which outlines five key guarantees aimed at the youth, with a primary focus on employment. The promises included:

1. Employment creation: A pledge to fill three million vacant posts in the central government.

2. Apprenticeship programme: Introduction of a right to apprenticeship for a year with a monthly stipend of Rs 8,500.

3. Exam integrity: Enactment of a law to prevent the leakage of examination papers.

4. Social security for gig workers: Provision of social security measures for those in the gig economy.

5. Yuva Roshni Fund: Establishment of a Rs 5,000 crore national fund, distributed across districts, to support youth startups.

Additionally, the Congress has committed to abolishing the Agniveer Scheme, which involves a three-year contract for soldiers in the Indian Army.

Youth Congress wing

Highlighting youth unemployment as a critical issue, the Congress has tasked its Youth Congress wing with distributing guarantee cards to at least 10,000 households in every assembly segment. These cards detail the assurances made during the party’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra led by Rahul Gandhi.

Sankalp Patra focuses on digital revolution and employment opportunities

The BJP’s manifesto ‘Sankalp Patra’ (Letter of Resolve), was released on April 14 and targets young voters with a vision of a ‘digital revolution’. Key promises, also dubbed ‘Modi’s Guarantees’ include:

1. Exam security: Implementation of laws to prevent the leakage of question papers for competitive exams

2. Transparency in exams: Conduct of transparent public examinations

3. Startup ecosystem expansion: Promotion of entrepreneurship among the youth by expanding the startup ecosystem

4. Government procurement: Encouragement of startups in government procurement processes

5. Employment in manufacturing: Enhancement of employment opportunities in the manufacturing sector

6. Infrastructure development: Generation of employment through infrastructure development

7. Tourism sector growth: Expansion of employment opportunities by boosting the tourism sector

A Hindi song ‘Modi ki Guarantee’, composed by party workers, was also shared on social media platforms to spread the key themes of BJP’s manifesto

BJP’s youth wing

The BJP’s youth wing is also actively engaging with first-time voters through programmes on college campuses, part of the ‘Mera Pehla Vote Desh Ke Liye’ (My First Vote for the Country) initiative. Additionally, the ‘NaMo Warriors’ initiative involves training 50 young voters from each college to spread awareness about the BJP government's developments.

As both parties vie for the youth vote, the emphasis on employment, digital initiatives, and social security indicates the critical role young voters will play in shaping the outcome of the upcoming elections.

Impact on election outcomes

Youth Voters: The Game Changers in 2014 Elections

In 2014, India’s young first-time voters played a pivotal role in propelling the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to an unprecedented majority. Exit polls revealed that voter turnout among Indians aged 18 to 25 exceeded 70 per cent, surpassing that of the general population for the first time. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections continued this trend, but despite the large number of millennial, many were unable to participate due to gaps in voter registration.

“All political parties during their campaigns, at least in rhetoric, talk about youth, young voters, and why they should be part of politics,” says Rahul Verma, a political scientist and fellow at the New Delhi-based think tank Centre for Policy Research (CPR).

“And though all political parties have student wings and youth wings, those who lead these wings are in their mid-thirties and above,” he says. Verma also criticise the lack of serious measures by political parties to genuinely mobilise young voters beyond mere rhetoric.

Communication gap between political parties and youth

In response to this gap, the Election Commission has launched various campaigns, such as the ‘Turning 18’ campaign, on its social media platforms to boost young voter engagement. These efforts aim to address the critical issue of voter apathy among the youth.

However, many young voters remain unimpressed with the current political landscape. “For now, I am not impressed with the performance of any political party,” said one young voter, reflecting a broader sentiment of disillusionment.

Despite this apparent disengagement, experts argue that young Indians are far from apathetic. “Indian youth are generally perceived to be disengaged, apathetic, and politically unaware,” says Kamei Aphun, an associate professor of sociology at Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Aphun believes that the current generation, having experienced the pandemic and witnessed the impacts of climate change, is well-positioned to drive significant change.

Most youth are actively reading and watching news, and eager to engage in political discourse, which is easily available online. However, there is a pervasive belief that political leaders are disconnected from the everyday struggles and priorities of the populace.

Communication breakdowns between leaders and the public further exacerbate young voters' dissatisfaction, as young voters feel important issues are not being addressed.

Young drivers of political change

The potential influence of young voters in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections cannot be overstated.

With one of the largest youth populations globally, young voters have a significant influence in driving political change and shaping the country's future leadership. These voters, having experienced transformative global events and showing a willingness to engage on critical issues such as corruption and climate change.

However, in order to have their opinions and perspectives heard, active participation by young voters is crucial, even though many are inclined to vote Nota. Not choosing to participate carries the risk of having young voters’ opinions dismissed as apathy to politics.

Therefore, in the upcoming elections, the turnout and choices made by young voters will not only determine political outcomes but also signify a vibrant democracy where every citizen’s opinion matters.

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First Published: May 20 2024 | 11:40 AM IST

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