Jobs, caste dynamics may shape poll outcome in Fadnavis' home turf

Takkar or ladhai (fight) is how voters across socio-economic strata describe the electoral contest unfolding in Nagpur South-West constituency, where Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis faces Prafulla Gudadhe-Patil of the Congress.

 

A Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stronghold, Fadnavis has represented Nagpur South-West since 2009, when it was carved out of Nagpur West — the constituency the five-time legislator first won in 1999.

 

Incidentally, Gudadhe’s father, Vinod Patil, who was then with the BJP, had defeated the Congress in Nagpur West in 1995. In a political twist, Fadnavis was fielded from the seat after Vinod Patil lost the Lok Sabha election in 1999. Fadnavis scraped through with a margin of 9,087 votes. Subsequently, Vinod Patil joined the Congress.

 

 

Over the years, a common refrain in the middle-class-dominated constituency has been the “talent drain” to educational and industrial hubs like Pune and Mumbai. Local BJP leaders claim this issue has been addressed to some extent, citing establishment of campuses in and around the constituency, such as the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Indian Institute of Management, Indian Institute of Information Technology, and the Maharashtra National Law University.

 

On the other hand, local Congress leaders highlight the lack of jobs and industry.

 

“Even after graduating from premier institutes, young people are forced to migrate to Pune, Mumbai, or other metro cities for jobs,” says a local resident. 

 

The Multi-modal International Cargo Hub and Airport, one of India’s largest Special Economic Zones, has not had the desired impact, locals say. While some multinationals have set up sprawling offices, more needs to be done, they say.

 

Some parts of the constituency have a high concentration of Brahmin voters, many of whom are sympathetic to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The BJP also relies on the support of Other Backward Classes (OBCs), traders, and economic migrants from Hindi heartland states. On the other hand, Dalits, minorities, and a section of Kunbis — a dominant OBC community to which Gudadhe belongs — form the bedrock of the Congress voter base.

 

Local Congress leaders point out that unlike Fadnavis, who has been busy campaigning statewide, Gudadhe has conducted a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis and mapped all 381-odd booths in the constituency. For the past month, the former leader of opposition in the BJP-ruled Nagpur Municipal Corporation has canvassed door-to-door as part of his padyatras with small meetings. Tapping the goodwill his father still enjoys with old-timer BJP workers, his low-key and highly localised campaign focuses on inflation and lack of jobs.

 

However, local BJP leaders claim a large section of Kunbi voters has been voting for Fadnavis. Each time since 1999 when the Congress fielded a Kunbi candidate against Fadnavis, it lost. Though Gudadhe lost to Fadnavis in 2014, this time he stands a fighting chance, they concede.

 

To overcome any complacency seen during the Lok Sabha 2024 polls, BJP workers and RSS volunteers have been tasked with ensuring shat pratishat (100 per cent) voting of committed voters. Banners across the city refer to Fadnavis as “Deva Bhau” (Bhau means brother in Marathi), instead of the formal “Devendra Ji”, that appeals to voters beyond the BJP’s traditional upper-caste base, party leaders feel.

 

On the outskirts of the constituency, populated by lower-middle-income families of migrants from northern and eastern states, the party is hard-selling its flagship Ladki Bahin scheme.