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Maharashtra exit polls 2024: In line with most other exit polls, psephologist Pradeep Gupta-led Axis My India has also predicted a comfortable win for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in the Maharashtra Assembly elections. While a majority of pollsters released their predictions on Wednesday, the voting day in Maharashtra, Gupta took an extra day to present a comprehensive picture of what the poll results may look like.
Axis My India has unveiled its exit poll analysis for Maharashtra, offering region-wise predictions and insights into caste-based and age-wise voter preferences. The results suggest that the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is poised to dominate in Mumbai and across the state, albeit with a slim margin over the rival Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in terms of vote share. The official results of the Maharashtra Assembly elections are expected on Saturday (November 23).
Maharashtra - Exit Poll - Overall Seat Share (288 Seats) & Vote Share(%)#MaharashtraElections2024 #Election2024 #ExitPoll pic.twitter.com/9SrnOSaEpD
— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) November 21, 2024
Key predictions for Maharashtra
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The exit poll, released by Pradeep Gupta’s Axis My India, indicates that the Mahayuti alliance is likely to secure 178-200 seats in the 288-seat Maharashtra Assembly. Meanwhile, the MVA is likely to be limited to 82-102 seats. Besides, Mahayuti is expected to secure a 48 pr cent vote share, far ahead of MVA's 37 per cent.
Regionally, the Mahayuti is expected to maintain a commanding lead across the state:
The analysis highlights a comprehensive advantage for the Mahayuti alliance across Maharashtra.
11/ 14 Maharashtra - Exit Poll - Gender-wise - Vote Share(%)#MaharahstraElection2024 #ExitPoll2024 #Election2024 pic.twitter.com/CN3DYPTl1T
— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) November 21, 2024
Maharashtra elections 2024: Political contenders
The Maharashtra Assembly elections pit the Mahayuti alliance—comprising the BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP—against the MVA coalition of Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP-SP faction.
Exit polls in focus
Exit polls aim to gauge voter sentiment based on surveys conducted immediately after voting. Although designed to provide early insights ahead of the official results, the accuracy of these polls has often been questioned.
Axis My India has previously enjoyed a reputation for accuracy, but its recent predictions have faced scrutiny. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the firm predicted a sweeping victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), projecting over 400 seats, aligning with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign slogan, Abki Baar 400 Paar.
However, its performance in recent state elections has been mixed. During the Haryana Assembly elections, the firm failed to foresee the BJP’s third consecutive win, instead predicting a Congress victory. Axis My India’s founder, Pradeep Gupta, recently ended a longstanding partnership with India Today during the Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir elections last month. Despite these changes, Gupta remains at the forefront of electoral analysis, with his predictions continuing to spark interest and debate.
Axis My India projection for Jharkhand polls
In its exit poll for the Jharkhand Assembly elections, Axis My India diverged from other pollsters, predicting a landslide win for the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress alliance, with the INDIA bloc projected to secure 53 seats.
Axis My India prediction for the 81-seat Jharkhand Assembly:
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