Maharashtra polls: Two alliances, six regions, and many fierce rivalries

Indivjal Dhasmana analyses regional dynamics, voter divides, and economic disparities in the regions crucial in the Assembly polls

If rival alliances in Maharashtra are to base their strategy for the Assembly elections on their performance in the Lok Sabha (LS) polls held earlier this year, the ruling Mahayuti alliance would aim to expand its dominance beyond the Konkan region, while the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) would seek to retain its hold in Mumbai, North Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Vidarbha, and strengthen its influence in other two regions. 

In western Maharashtra, which accounts for one-fifth of the state’s population and economy, the Opposition bloc had a slight edge in the last LS elections. This region has the highest number of Assembly seats — 70 of the total 288 in the state.

 

The MVA secured half of the 10 LS seats in this region, while the ruling Mahayuti won four. One seat was won by an independent, Vishal Patil, who later extended support to the Congress. This area saw fierce competition between the two, a trend likely to continue in the Assembly elections. The two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are in direct contest in over 28 per cent of the seats — 20 of 70 constituencies. 

 

In fact, the Baramati seat in the region is being contested by NCP supremo Ajit Pawar and his nephew Yugendra Pawar from NCP (Sharad Pawar). The NCP (SP) bagged three of 10 LS seats in western Maharashtra, while the NCP drew a blank. 

The Konkan region is the only area where the ruling alliance outperformed the MVA in the LS polls, winning five of the six seats. This was also the only region where the NCP won a seat. The area, comprising just over one-fifth of Maharashtra’s population and slightly less than one-fifth of its economy, saw the Shiv Sena winning two MP seats. Among key candidates, Shiv Sena chief and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is contesting against his mentor Anand Dighe’s nephew Kedar Prakash Dighe from Shiv Sena (UBT) in the Kopri-Pachpakhadi seat. 

In all other regions, the MVA left Mahayuti far behind in the LS polls. For instance, Vidarbha, which has the second-highest number of Assembly seats after western Maharashtra, saw the MVA winning seven of 10 LS constituencies, with the Congress securing five of them. This area, which has one-fifth of the state population but contributes only around 15 per cent to the state economy, has a per capita income trailing the state’s average by 25-27 per cent. It is also seeing many rebel candidates standing against the official nominees of various parties. Among key contenders, BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is contesting from the Nagpur South-West constituency, while Congress state unit chief Nana Patole is in the fray in Sakoli. 

Marathwada is another region where the MVA six of the seven LS seats earlier this year. Only one seat was won by the ruling Shiv Sena. One seat spanning Marathwada and western Maharashtra was won by Shiv Sena (UBT). With the row over Maratha reservation continuing, the ruling camp faces a challenge in this area, which has 46 Assembly constituencies.  Marathwada’s economy is much smaller than its population, resulting in its per capita income lagging the state average by 32-34 per cent. Among key candidates, former state chief minister Ashok Chavan’s daughter, Sreejaya Chavan, has been fielded from Nanded’s Bhokar Assembly seat by the BJP. 

North Maharashtra is one of the three regions where per capita income lags behind the state’s average, despite its population constituting around 17 per cent of the state. The region’s economy, dominated by agriculture, accounts for just 11 per cent of Maharashtra’s total. In the LS elections, the MVA routed the ruling alliance, winning six of the seven seats, leaving only one for the BJP. 

Mumbai, comprising both the city and suburban areas, is the most prosperous region in the state, with its per capita income 61-66 per cent higher than the state average. 

Despite having less than 3 per cent of Maharashtra’s population, the region accounts for 19-20 per cent of the state’s economy and houses India’s financial capital. The ruling bloc won only two of the six LS seats here. Shiv Sena (UBT) has its strongest hold in this region with three MPs. 

In the Assembly polls, there is a clash of two factions of the Shiv Sena: Uddhav Thackeray’s son, Aditya, is facing Milind Deora (SS) in the Worli constituency. Besides, Zeeshan Siddique, son of slain Maharashtra minister Baba Siddique, is contesting as an NCP nominee from Vandre East against Uddhav Thackeray’s nephew, Varun Sardesai. In Mahim, which houses Shiv Sena (UBT) headquarters, Maharashtra Nav­nirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray’s son, Amit, is pitted against Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Mahesh Sawant and Shiv Sena’s Sada Savankar.

 

Both blocs have released manifestos targeting women, farmers, and youth among other sections. Women electorates comprise 47.7 per cent of the total voters in the state, while the youth (18-25) accounts for almost 12 per cent of the electorates. Around half of the state population is dependent on agriculture.  For instance, the ruling alliance has promised to raise the monthly allowance for eligible women under the Mukhya Mantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana from Rs 1,500 to Rs 2,100 if re-elected, while the MVA has pledged Rs 3,000 per month under a similar scheme. 

The Mahayuti has promised a loan waiver for farmers, while the MVA has offered a waiver of up to Rs 3 lakh and a Rs 50,000 incentive for regular loan repayment. Individual parties have also released their own manifestos for the elections. The ruling alliance also promised 2.5 million jobs to youth, while the MVA offered Rs 4,000 a month to the unemployed youth.