 "The timing of Vladimir Putin’s recent moves is most likely a sign that he has greater confidence about his battlefield prospects in Ukraine and his hold on political power as he begins his fifth term as president. (Photo: Reuters)")
By Paul Sonne and Anatoly Kurmanaev
Periodic outcries over incompetence and corruption at the top of the Russian military have dogged President Vladimir Putin’s war effort since the start of his invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. When his forces faltered around the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, the need for change was laid bare. When they were routed months later outside the city of Kharkiv, expectations of a shake-up grew. And after the mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin marched his men toward Moscow, complaining of ineptitude at the top of the Russian force, Putin seemed obliged to respond.
But, at each turn, the Russian president avoided any major public moves that could have been seen as validating the criticism, keeping his defense minister and top general in place through the firestorm while shuffling battlefield commanders and making other moves lower on the chain.
Now, with the battlefield crises seemingly behind him and Prigozhin dead, the Russian leader has decided to act, changing defense ministers for the first time in more than a decade and allowing a number of corruption arrests among top ministry officials.
The moves have ushered in the biggest overhaul at the Russian Defence Ministry since the invasion began and have confirmed Putin’s preference for avoiding big, responsive changes in the heat of a crisis and instead acting at a less conspicuous time of his own choosing.
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“We have to understand that Putin is a person who is stubborn and not very flexible,” said Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter who now lives outside Russia. “He believes that reacting too quickly to a changing situation is a sign of weakness.”
The timing of Putin’s recent moves is most likely a sign that he has greater confidence about his battlefield prospects in Ukraine and his hold on political power as he begins his fifth term as president, experts say.
Russian forces are making gains in Ukraine, taking territory around Kharkiv and in the Donbas region, as Ukraine struggles with aid delays from the United States and strained reserves of ammunition and personnel. Top officials in the Kremlin are feeling optimistic. Demand for change at the top of the Russian military has been pent up since the invasion’s earliest days, when stories circulated about Russian soldiers going to war without proper food and equipment and losing their lives.
The anger crested with an aborted uprising led last year by Mr. Prigozhin, who died in a subsequent plane crash that US officials have said was most likely a state-sanctioned assassination.
The first harbinger of change arose last month with the arrest of Timur Ivanov, a protégé of Shoigu and the deputy defense minister in charge of military construction projects whom the Russian authorities have accused of taking a large bribe. Then, this month, days after Putin began his new term as president, the Kremlin announced that he had replaced Shoigu and chosen Andrei Belousov, one of his longtime economic advisers, as the new defense minister.
“If you want to win a war, corruption at a larger scale impacting the results on the battlefield is, in theory at least, not something you want,” said Maria Engqvist, the deputy head of Russia and Eurasia studies at the Swedish Defence Research Agency.
Engqvist said the changes also raised questions about how long General Gerasimov would stay in his position as chief of the general staff and top battlefield commander in Ukraine.
The arrests at the Defense Ministry have gathered pace this month, with four more top generals and defense officials detained on corruption charges. Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, denied on Thursday that the arrests represented a “campaign.”
The corruption charges against top Defence Ministry officials have come alongside promises of greater financial and social benefits for the rank-and-file soldiers, an attempt to improve morale and mollify populist critics.
The high-level arrests are unlikely to root out vast corruption in the Russian military establishment, but they could make top officials think twice before stealing at a particularly large scale, at least for a period, said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Ivan Popov, a top Russian commander, chided the Russian military leadership in a recording last year after he was removed from his post.
©2024 The New York Times News Service
