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Chinese President Xi Jinping and other leaders of the People's Republic of China (PRC) are "almost certainly" concerned about the ongoing impact of corruption on the People's Liberation Army's (PLA's) capabilities and reliability, the US intelligence community (US IC) has said in a recently released assessment.
"Beijing will focus on building a fully modernised national defence and military force by 2035 and for the PLA to become a world-class military by 2049," said an intelligence report, called The Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, published on March 11.
"In the meantime, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hopes to use the PLA to secure what it claims is its sovereign territory, to assert its preeminence in regional affairs, and to project power globally," added the assessment, published by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) -- a US government agency established in 2004 with the aim of integrating the country's intelligence community.
However, the assessment indicated that the PRC would face significant challenges in meeting these goals. "PRC leaders almost certainly are concerned about the ongoing impact of corruption on the military’s capabilities and reliability, judging from a purge of high-level officers, including the defence minister in 2023," said the intelligence report.
Xi's military purge
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File photo of China's President Xi Jinping. Image credit: Bloomberg
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Since taking power in 2012, Xi has embarked on a wide-ranging anti-corruption programme, with the PLA being one of its primary targets.
Li's predecessor, Wei Fenghe, who had resigned in March 2023, had also disappeared from public sight in August that same year.
According to the US Naval Institute, Wei's disappearance had come amid an investigation into corruption within the Rocket Force -- a key arm of the PLA that oversees China's tactical and nuclear missiles.
Wei was previously commander of the Rocket Force and became China's defence minister in March 2018.
Reuters reported that when asked about Wei's whereabouts in August 2023, a Chinese defence ministry spokesperson said that the military has zero tolerance for corruption and will crack down on every corrupt official.
PLA to fight 'protracted' battle against corruption
A January 1 PLA Daily editorial, which provides an outlook for the Chinese military's goals in 2024, reinforced the message: Improved discipline and fighting corruption would be the main goals for the year.
Highlighting that 2024 marked the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the editorial said that the military's tasks would be "arduous and onerous", adding that the PLA would "unswervingly uphold integrity and discipline" and "fight a tough and protracted battle against corruption".
Rocket Force at centre of PLA's corruption woes
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China's DF-31A intercontinental ballistic missile in Beijing. Image credit: IceUnshattered (Wikimedia Commons)
Between last December and March this year, China's National People's Congress (NPC) removed at least 10 senior military officers from the country's national legislative body. The NPC is China's top lawmaking body.
Lyle J Morris, a China watcher and senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, wrote that three generals, five lieutenant generals, and two commanders were dismissed as part of this purge.
An analysis of a December 29 announcement by the Standing Committee of the NPC revealed that PLA's Rocket Force accounted for the majority of the officials removed from the legislative body in that phase of the purge.
Out of the nine dismissals, the Rocket Force accounted for at least four and the Equipment Development Department for two. These nine officers had been removed from their commands last year.
Those who were stripped of their seats in the legislature in December included Li Yuchao, who was replaced as the commander of the PLA Rocket Force in July 2023 after missing from public view for several months.
Another December removal that stood out was that of Ding Laihang, who had served as commander of the PLA Air Force from 2017 to 2021.
In February 2024, the NPC reportedly said that these nine officers were suspected of "violations of discipline and the law", which the South China Morning Post explains is "usually a euphemism for corruption".
'Missiles filled with water'
Close on the heels of the December dismissals, a January 6 Bloomberg article said that the US' intelligence assessment was that corruption inside the PLA Rocket Force had triggered the military purge.
US intelligence assessments reportedly gave examples like missiles filled with water instead of fuel and numerous Chinese missile silos with malfunctioning lids that could impede missile launch.
Sources cited by the article said that corruption inside the Rocket Force and China's defence industry was rampant enough to lead US officials to believe that Xi was less likely to engage in a major military operation in coming years than would otherwise have been the case. However, Bloomberg cautioned that it couldn’t independently verify this assessment.
Purge continues
During the second round of the purge, a February 27 announcement by the Standing Committee of the NPC said that Li Zhizhong, the former deputy commander of the PLA's Central Theater Command, was stripped of his seat on the national legislative body. The Central Theater Command's responsibilities include guarding the capital, Beijing.
At the same time, China's former defence minister, Li Shangfu, was finally removed from the Communist Party's Central Military Commission -- a key military command body.
PLA lacks 'warfighting experience'
According to the threat assessment published by ODNI, the US IC also believes that another major military challenge for Beijing would be that "China lacks recent warfighting experience", which could "weaken the PLA's effectiveness" and reduce President Xi's "willingness to initiate a conflict".
