Donald Trump's victory may not be good news for Pakistan and Bangladesh

Other South Asian leaders can't rely on the warm personal relationship that Trump shares with Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Donald Trump's return as President of the United States (US) has been welcomed with enthusiasm in New Delhi, despite potential concerns about trade tensions and tariffs. However, other countries in India's neighbourhood may find reasons for unease. 

 

Leaders across the region may also see their fortunes shift once President-elect Trump is sworn in on January 20, 2025. Not all of them can rely on the warm personal relationship that Trump shares with Prime Minister Narendra Modi — take, for instance, Muhammad Yunus, the Chief Adviser to Bangladesh's interim government.

 

 

Bangladesh and Yunus

 

Yunus may encounter obstacles in navigating relations with the incoming Trump administration, stemming from his earlier remarks about Trump, and the President-elect's perceived lack of interest in the South Asian nation, The Economic Times reported on Friday.

 

In 2016, shortly after Trump's first presidential election victory, Yunus, while delivering a lecture in Paris, reportedly remarked, "Trump's win has hit us so hard that this morning I could hardly speak. I lost all strength. Should I even come here? Of course, I should, we must not allow this lapse into depression, we will overcome these dark clouds." 

 

Yunus' previous stance on Trump, coupled with the latter's public criticism of attacks on minorities in Bangladesh, might complicate the Nobel laureate's dealings with Washington, DC.

 

Days before he was reelected, while sending Diwali greetings, Trump condemned the attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh. Bangladesh, he had said, remains in a total state of chaos. Trump also alleged that US Vice-President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden had ignored Hindus across the world and in America. 

 

I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos, Trump had said in a post on Truth Social, the social media platform he owns.

 

Even if Yunus manages to avoid Trump's ire — widely noted in American media for his propensity to hold grudges — Harris' defeat in the US presidential elections may not bode well for his country.

 

Members of the Democratic Party, which Trump ran against as the Republican presidential nominee, had openly supported Yunus, with his associations with prominent Democratic leaders reportedly evident during his recent visit to the US for the United Nations General Assembly.

 

According to The Economic Times, the outgoing Biden administration was also working on finalising a financial package for Bangladesh, while urging Yunus' government to initiate political reforms ahead of elections.

 

Meanwhile, Bangladesh's deposed prime minister Sheikh Hasina has extended an olive branch to Trump, congratulating him for his electoral victory and expressing a desire for future collaboration. She also stated her commitment to working with the incoming US President to advance "bilateral and multilateral interests of both countries". Interestingly, Hasina referred to herself as the prime minister in her congratulatory letter to Trump. 

 

Bangladesh, which recently experienced a student-led coup, will first need to address its internal challenges before determining its foreign policy stance on Trump's return to the White House, Derek Grossman, senior defence analyst at American think tank RAND Corporation and an adjunct professor of political science and international relations at the University of Southern California, had argued in an August 22 piece on what a second Trump term would mean for the Indo-Pacific.

 

Afghanistan and Sri Lanka

 

However, the situation is not entirely bleak for Dhaka.

 

Smaller and medium-sized nations in South Asia, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, may neither see Trump as a significant threat nor as a particularly favourable partner, Grossman's piece argued, adding the caveat that, however, much of this depends on the Trump administration's specific actions in the region.

 

Grossman's assessment was that among these countries, Afghanistan was likely to feel the least vulnerable, given that Trump was the President who brokered the agreement for the withdrawal of US forces from the country. 

 

However, not all countries in the region can afford to remain optimistic about Trump's return.

 

Pakistan

 

Unlike other countries in India's neighbourhood, Pakistan is likely to face the greatest challenges under a second Trump presidency, argues Grossman.

 

This is because during his first term, Trump accused Pakistan of "deceit" and providing safe havens to terrorists. In 2018, he even cut off security assistance to Islamabad. Although he sought a reset in relations the following year, it was primarily because Pakistan played a role in facilitating the Afghan peace process. 

 

According to Grossman, the new Trump administration is likely to prioritise maintaining robust US-India relations, and any engagement with Pakistan would be at odds with that objective.

 

Many experts also suggest Pakistan is unlikely to be a high priority for the incoming administration, Al Jazeera reported after Trump's reelection.

 

Speaking to the news organisation, Joshua White, a former White House official for South Asian affairs under President Barack Obama's administration and now a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution, predicted that Trump’s team would prioritise other matters. 

 

"Pakistan will likely be a low priority," White noted, adding that Washington primarily views Pakistan through a counterterrorism lens with "little appetite" for broadening security or economic ties.

 

Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US and the United Kingdom, said Pakistan "does not figure prominently" among the US' foreign policy priorities, adding that bilateral relations are at "a crossroads and require redefinition".

 

It's unclear how much interest the Trump administration will have in addressing this issue, concluded Lodhi.