Donald Trump wins: What 'America First' means for India on security, trade

Donald Trump on Wednesday trounced Kamala Harris to win the US presidency again. Here's what this means for India when it comes to defence and security, trade and foreign policy

Donald Trump is the President of the United States (US) once again. The Republican Party candidate on Wednesday trounced his opponent, the Democratic Party candidate, Vice-President Kamala Harris, in a bitterly fought contest for the US presidency.

 

Trump stuck to his guns during the campaign with his 'America First' agenda, which is underpinned by a staunchly anti-immigration stance at home and what trade and foreign policy experts have described as a protectionist and isolationist approach abroad. 

 

Trump's immigration, trade and foreign policies are likely to be rooted in these ideas, which will also have implications for India. While it is by no means an exhaustive list, we have condensed what Trump's return to Washington, DC means for New Delhi into two broad pros and two broad cons.

 

 

1) Pro: Tougher on China

 

Despite the recent thaw in relations due to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) patrolling agreement, India and China still have miles to go before restoring mutual trust and normalcy at their militarised boundary. New Delhi, therefore, cannot afford to let its guard down, and the likelihood of President Trump being tougher on China than his predecessor, Joe Biden, could play out in its favour.

 

However, there are some important caveats to consider. Back when Biden was still in the race, Chinese experts had publicly stated that whoever the winner would be, both candidates -- Trump or Biden -- were "poison" for China, writes Yun Sun, a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Program and director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, in her piece for American think tank Brookings. Given that a Harris victory was widely considered to mean a continuation of Biden's policies, the same could have been said of her impact on China too, had she won.

 

According to Yun, Chinese experts were of the view that while a second Biden term might have brought more stability to bilateral relations, his "competition strategy" had been "quite effective economically and diplomatically" against China.

 

In comparison, while they saw Trump's position on US alliances and partnerships as serving China's strategic agenda in the long run, in the short term, they were of the opinion that Trump's "unpredictability and his use of maximum pressure" would put China in an "extremely difficult" position. Trump, thus, was viewed as "the less desirable option from China's perspective". 

 

No US President before Trump had explicitly framed China as a strategic threat and rival. His actions were seen as a departure from decades of US policy ambiguity when it came to restraining Beijing's rise. Notably for New Delhi, the Quad grouping, which comprises the US, India, Japan, and Australia, and aims to promote a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region, was revived when Trump was in office in 2017. However, it should also be noted that Biden elevated the Quad to a leaders' level format.

 

The US-India Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership, driven and bolstered in recent times by mutual concerns over an increasingly assertive China, enjoys bipartisan support in the US. Experts and media commentary thus do not foresee a departure from its current trajectory in the foreseeable future. The growing defence ties under this partnership are also unlikely to be affected by Trump's victory. 

Heartiest congratulations my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together,… pic.twitter.com/u5hKPeJ3SY

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) November 6, 2024

 

2) Con: Isolationism

 

The mainstream of the US' foreign policy establishment views Trump as a "dangerous neo-isolationist", and there are fears that his second term could see him "dismantle the liberal order" that the US and its allies have built and defended since World War II, writes Charles Kupchan, professor of international affairs at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, in his piece for the Foreign Affairs magazine.

 

Adding that such fears are "justified", Kupchan believes that Trump could indeed seek to undo "at least some core elements" of the US-led liberal order.

 

This is in line with the previously explained belief in Beijing: Trump's 'America First' approach to US alliances could serve China's interests in the long run.

 

In a "worst-case scenario", Trump could pull the US out of NATO, leave Ukraine to "fend for itself" and Taiwan "to work out its own arrangements" with China, writes Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF). 

 

According to Joshi, if Trump does take such steps, US allies and partners would "confront a world where the US would no longer guarantee their security".

 

However, there is an important caveat to consider here, too. As a piece in The Council on Foreign Relations, an American think tank, argues, Trump is not entirely a "true" isolationist. According to its assessment, Trump's complaints about US security commitments are driven by the belief that American allies "haven't paid enough" for "the privilege of US protection". The piece argues that Trump's mantra appears to be: "If you pay, we stay."

 

In a connected and globalised world, the uncertainty of the US' possible turn towards greater isolation could also impact countries not directly involved in the ongoing conflicts around the globe, including India.

 

While the extent of Trump's isolationism in his second term remains to be seen, ORF's Joshi has also argued that Trump's stance on tariffs could "end the open trading system the world is used to".

 

3) Con: Higher tariffs

 

This brings us to the next challenge Trump's presidency could pose for India.

 

During his campaign, Trump branded India a "very big (trade) abuser", leading to apprehensions that the trade tensions seen during his first term will reemerge. The apprehension for India will be that Trump could impose higher tariffs on the over $75 billion worth of Indian exports to the US. Key Indian exports to the US include information technology (IT) services, pharmaceutical drugs, and gems and jewellery.

 

Notably, Trump had pledged to impose an array of fresh tariffs if reelected, including 60 per cent on all Chinese imports and 10 per cent on products from the rest of the world. 

 

If enacted, these measures would build on his first term, which had seen Trump end efforts to conclude the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, and announce a raft of tariffs.

 

4) Pro: China Plus One

 

Despite Trump's tough stance on trade, he could prove to be beneficial for India, suggests a September report by market research firm Nomura.

 

Scrutiny over India's trade surplus with the US and the possibility that the Trump administration might implement punitive measures against trading partners it believes are artificially devaluing their currencies were the two main sources of possible trade friction between India and the US, according to the report, which evaluated the potential effects of a second Trump term on the US economy, geopolitics, and the global landscape, particularly Asia, among other things.

 

However, the Nomura report also indicated that such short-term disruptions caused by a second Trump presidency were likely to be mitigated by the US' 'China Plus One' strategy, which is expected to gain momentum under Trump.

 

China Plus One is a business strategy where companies diversify supply chains by establishing operations outside China, including in countries like India, to reduce dependence on it. This approach gained momentum during Trump's first presidency, as his trade tariffs on Chinese goods and focus on reshoring manufacturing heightened concerns over reliance on China.