India, China should pursue border settlement while LAC deal holds: Experts

India-China LAC pact offers a fragile chance to address the current impasse in the boundary dispute, but disruptions in the smooth conduct of patrolling could unravel progress in the future

As Indian and Chinese troops begin patrolling in eastern Ladakh under the recently announced Line of Actual Control (LAC) agreement, New Delhi should seize the opportunity to pursue a more comprehensive border settlement, as the current understanding remains fragile due to the inherent nature of patrolling, sources with experience in the defence establishment have explained.

 

Days after the Indian Army successfully conducted patrolling in eastern Ladakh's Depsang Plains and Demchok areas following the disengagement of troops from both sides at these friction points, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) reportedly carried out its first patrol in Depsang this week under the mutually agreed terms of the October disengagement agreement. 

 

Following the consensus reached between the Indian and Chinese Side for disengagement and resumption of patrolling in Depsang and Demchok, the Indian Army patrol to one of the patrolling points in Depsang was successfully conducted today. This is yet another positive step towards… pic.twitter.com/iJrt6Hcd9z

— @firefurycorps_IA (@firefurycorps) November 4, 2024

 

Underlining the key factor that will determine how long the current arrangement can hold, the sources said that while India and China have arrived at an understanding, the "trust factor is yet to be resolved". However, they stressed that the LAC patrolling agreement announced in October is a good start that opens up a crucial window of opportunity for both sides and "sets the ground for resolving the broader boundary issue".

 

The LAC is the demarcation boundary separating Indian-controlled territory from Chinese-controlled territory. India considers the LAC to be 3,488 kilometres long, and it is divided into three sectors: the western sector in Ladakh, the middle sector in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, and the eastern sector spanning Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim.

 

Patrolling 'inherently aggressive'

 

Over time, troop movements such as patrolling can become "acrimonious" due to their "inherently aggressive" nature, the sources explained, noting that the effectiveness of the mechanisms introduced to manage this issue is yet to be determined. "Nonetheless, patrolling is vital and cannot be avoided. It is about showing the nation's flag at the last mile, at the last metre, of its territory. Many minor issues can crop up over time, from coordination to conduct. The understanding on the ground can break down as a result," they added. 

 

Against this backdrop, the basis of patrolling—whether it is spatial separation (the distance troops will maintain from each other) or periodicity (frequency of patrolling)—will have a significant impact on how the agreement progresses, they said.

 

Flesh out principles for settling border dispute

 

Stressing that the current agreement is in part a result of the Indian Army gradually wearing down the PLA during the initial days of the Ladakh standoff that began in April 2020, the sources said that border settlement remains India's principal concern. They added that the current opportunity should be put to the best possible use towards such an outcome.

 

"New Delhi must define principles for a future border settlement, while monitoring where the current agreement leads. One possibility could be a return to where both sides left off after the last round of talks between the Special Representatives of India and China," they explained. 

 

The last (22nd) meeting of the Special Representatives of India and China was held in New Delhi in December 2019, when both sides had "underlined the importance of approaching the boundary question from the strategic perspective of India-China relations" and "agreed that an early settlement of the boundary question serves the fundamental interests of both countries".

 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's meeting with President Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS Summit at Kazan in October, indicated that this process will resume. A Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) release said that the two leaders "agreed that the Special Representatives on the India-China boundary question will meet at an early date to oversee the management of peace and tranquillity in border areas and to explore a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution to the boundary question".

 

New Delhi, however, will also have to take into account factors that can complicate any settlement of the larger boundary question.

 

"China increasingly views the boundary issue as a matter of sovereignty rather than merely a border dispute," explained Ashok K Kantha, who served as India's Ambassador to China until January 2016. "Changes on the ground at the LAC carry significant implications and demand enhanced communication and clarity. The LAC agreement and the subsequent meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi focused on re-engagement and should not be conflated with a broader reset, as structural issues predating the Ladakh standoff still need to be resolved," he added. 

 

It may also be too soon to determine the future course of broader India-China relations.

 

"The current re-engagement does not automatically signify a return to the state of bilateral ties as they were before 2020," explained Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary of India. "Rather, it marks an opening for the potential resumption of normal relations. One way to gauge whether the LAC agreement is progressing smoothly and the overall ties are improving will be if the government begins approving some of the pending Chinese investment proposals. This would signal that sufficient understanding has been achieved to warrant the revival of economic and commercial relations," he added. 

 

The Ladakh standoff began in April 2020, when Chinese troops crossed the LAC in eastern Ladakh, building infrastructure in disputed areas. A violent clash occurred in the Pangong Tso area in May, and tensions escalated sharply with the deadly Galwan Valley clash on June 15, 2020, where 20 Indian soldiers and an unspecified number of Chinese troops died.

 

The standoff continued, with intermittent disengagement at some friction points, until October this year, when New Delhi and Beijing reached an agreement on patrolling arrangements at the remaining friction points along the LAC in eastern Ladakh.

 

The agreement presents a critical yet delicate opportunity, depending on how events unfold on the ground, defence establishment sources and foreign policy experts agree. Both sides must use this chance to make progress on resolving the boundary issue.