India-China LAC agreement explained: Does it resolve dispute and what next?

Once implemented, India-China border pact could see Indian Army return to patrolling along India's perception of the LAC in Depsang Plains and Demchok

India and China have made progress in resolving the military standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, with both nations reportedly agreeing to restore patrolling rights to each other in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region, allowing their troops to resume patrolling up to their old patrolling points along the LAC in these areas.

The agreement allows Indian troops access to patrolling points (PP) 10 to 13 in the Depsang Plains, while in Demchok, patrolling will extend to Charding Nullah, The Indian Express reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources.

The frictions between the two sides in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region have long been regarded as "legacy issues" predating the Chinese incursions of 2020.

 

The Depsang Plains are located in the north of Ladakh and Demchok in the south.

Mutual agreements have reportedly been reached for the eastern theatre as well, particularly in sensitive areas of Arunachal Pradesh. Further discussions on other sectors in the eastern region will also take place between the two sides at a later stage.

What does the India-China border pact mean for the Indian Army?

Under the agreement, patrolling will be conducted by the Indian Army along India's perception of the LAC in the areas concerned, as it was prior to 2020, at a frequency of twice a month, the report explained, citing a source.

This is in line with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's remarks on Monday that under the agreement, Indian and Chinese soldiers will return to patrolling along the LAC in the same manner as before the border tensions erupted in May 2020.

However, the patrols, which usually consisted of 13 to 18 soldiers, will now have at least 14 to 15 personnel to prevent clashes, the national daily added.

Moreover, both sides will exchange their patrol schedules with each other. In case of conflicting dates or times, adjustments will reportedly be made by mutual consent.

The national daily added that the coordination of patrolling between both sides will be closely monitored, and the forces will keep each other informed to avoid any misunderstandings.

As a result of the agreement, the overall deployment of troops along the LAC is also expected to be reduced, which aligns with the Indian Army's existing winter plan for Ladakh.

Why is the agreement on Depsang Plains, Demchok important?

In May 2020, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) made incursions into multiple areas traditionally claimed and patrolled by India.

Since then, New Delhi and Beijing have engaged in negotiations, claiming to have settled disputes over the alignment of the LAC in three areas: Galwan Valley, Gogra-Hot Springs, and the Pangong Lake region.

At present, seven friction points exist in eastern Ladakh. These include PP 14 (Galwan), PP 15 (Hot Springs), PP 17A (Gogra), the north and south banks of Pangong Tso, the Depsang Plains, and Charding Nullah in Demchok.

The agreement announced on Monday focuses on Depsang and Demchok — the two remaining areas where the PLA continues to hold Indian territory. These regions account for the majority of the disputed area.

In September 2022, Indian and Chinese forces carried out a mutual withdrawal from the Gogra-Hot Springs area in Ladakh. Despite this, Chinese troops have retained control over significant portions of Indian territory in the Depsang Plains, where China had blocked India's access to patrolling points, and Demchok in southern Ladakh.

Despite agreeing to disengagement at other friction points, Beijing had been reluctant to discuss the situation at the Depsang Plains and Charding Nullah until about a year ago. Against this backdrop, the national daily reported that Monday's agreement on patrolling in these areas is particularly significant.

The strategic importance of the Depsang Plains in particular is underscored by its location. It is located just 30 kilometres (km) southeast of India's critical Daulat Beg Oldie post near the Karakoram Pass in the north.

In contrast to the mountainous terrain of the region, the flat surface of the plains also offers a potential launchpad for military offensives by either country.

The situation in Depsang has also been particularly concerning because the PLA has advanced as far as 15 km into areas patrolled by Indian forces.

Not only is the Depsang area the northernmost tip of India, it is also the sector where the PLA has intruded most deeply.

What does the border pact mean for other friction points?

Despite Monday's agreement on patrolling arrangements in Depsang and Demchok, the situation at other friction points -- Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso lake -- where disengagement was achieved two years ago with the establishment of buffer zones, will remain unchanged, The Indian Express report said, citing sources.

The fierce clashes in the Galwan Valley in June 2020, where 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives and an unspecified number of Chinese troops were also killed or injured, left bilateral ties between New Delhi and Beijing at a six-decade low.

Coming to Pangong Tso in eastern Ladakh, a July report based on satellite images had said that China had completed and operationalised a bridge connecting the north and south banks of the lake, allowing the PLA to significantly reduce the time needed to mobilise its troops and tanks.

A clash between Indian and Chinese troops had also occurred on the banks of the Pangong lake.

Another July report had said that the PLA had constructed underground bunkers for storing weapons and fuel, along with hardened shelters for protecting armoured vehicles, at a key base in the area around Pangong lake, indicating that China was digging in for the long haul in the region.

What are the next steps in the India-China border pact?

India and China will continue building trust through confidence-building measures, the national daily reported, citing sources.

These measures will include monthly meetings between commanding officers, along with additional meetings on a case-by-case basis.

This comes against the backdrop of reports from September, when news of a possible LAC agreement had first emerged, that there was a trust deficit between the two sides, despite the initial progress towards a pact.

What does the border pact mean for India-China ties?

Ultimately, a resolution to the broader Sino-India territorial dispute in Eastern Ladakh could be within reach if the issues related to Depsang and Demchok are resolved.

India has consistently demanded a full disengagement from the territory it has historically held and patrolled in Eastern Ladakh, insisting that restoring the status quo as it existed before May 2020 is crucial for the return of peace and stability in the region.

Moreover, if New Delhi and Beijing successfully implement further steps towards deescalation and demilitarisation under Monday's agreement, it could contribute to the early restoration of diplomatic and bilateral political relations.

While announcing the border pact on Monday, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said that the agreement could lead to disengagement and, "eventually, a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020".

However, both sides still have considerable distance to cover.  

After Misri's announcement, while addressing the possibility that the border pact would have an effect on other aspects of the India-China relationship, Jaishankar cautioned against drawing quick conclusions about its impact on trade ties in particular. 

Referring to trade, Jaishankar said that the LAC pact had "just happened", and so, he "would not go so fast at the moment".