Trudeau gone, what next for India-Canada ties? Ujjal Dosanjh explains

In an exclusive conversation with Business Standard, former Canadian minister Ujjal Dosanjh spoke about the India-Canada ties in post-Trudeau era

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing his resignation as the leader of the ruling Liberal Party will have little effect on Ottawa's strained ties with India, says Ujjal Dosanjh, a former Canadian minister of Indian origin.

 

Speaking exclusively with Business Standard over phone, Dosanjh said that elections are expected to take place in June-July this year and Trudeau's replacement in the Liberal Party may not necessarily rake up the bilateral issue with India in the meanwhile.

 

Making the announcement about his resignation on Monday, Trudeau said he would remain the prime minister and Liberal leader until the party chooses his successor. Under his tenure, Canada's ties with India deteriorated significantly, especially after the murder of wanted Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen. Trudeau alleged that there were "credible allegations of a potential link" between the Indian government and the killing of Nijjar, a charge which India has repeatedly denied.

 

 

Dosanjh, who was the premier of British Columbia and served as the Minister of Health from 2004-06 under a Liberal government, said that Trudeau's successor would be announced in a month and would have a short term since the elections are approaching. For this reason, the new Liberal leader would be too busy to talk about the India issue until then, said Dosanjh.

 

Ujjal Dosanjh is a prominent voice of moderate Sikhs in Canada. He was attacked by Khalistanis outside a parking lot in February 1985 after he spoke out against the extremist elements. The attack left him with a broken hand and 80 stitches on his head.

 

Nijjar allegations

 

Trudeau's government faced criticism for going public with allegations against the Indian government and not providing concrete evidence. India has been asking for proof from the Canadian side, but Ottawa has not shared such evidence citing national security and the need to protect intelligence sources.

 

Four Indian nationals - Karan Brar, Kamalpreet Singh, Karanpreet Singh and Amandeep Singh - have been arrested by Canada's Royal Canadian Mounted Police in connection with the Nijjar murder probe.

 

'Conservatives may be more charitable to India'

 

According to Dosanjh, the Conservatives, who are most likely to win the next election in Canada, may be more charitable towards India. "My sense is that the Conservatives, if they come to power, may look at the India-Canada relationship with different eyes. The small thing to do would be to put the Nijjar issue aside and deal with it appropriately," he said.

 

Dosanjh further said that it's time for Canada to revise its relationship with India as the bilateral trade, especially the import of pulses and potash which is critical for the country, is suffering.

 

While there are some Khalistani elements in the Conservatives rank as well, Dosanjh said they may not find as favourable support as they got from the Liberals under Trudeau. The Conservatives would have seen and learnt from the experience under Trudeau's administration, which happened to ignore Sikh extremism, he said.

 

Recent opinion polls indicate that the Conservative Party holds a significant lead over the Liberal Party in the lead-up to the 2025 federal election. An Ipsos poll shows the Conservatives at 43 per cent and the Liberals at 24 per cent, a 19-point advantage. Similarly, an Abacus Data poll reports the Conservatives leading by 17 points, with 41 per cent support compared to the Liberals' 24 per cent.

 

Immigration to remain an issue

 

In recent years, Canada has implemented several measures that have made immigration more challenging. Trudeau faced criticism for immigration policies, with critics arguing that his government’s high immigration targets worsened housing shortages, driving up prices and straining social services.

 

Consequently, in November 2024, Trudeau announced a significant decrease in immigration targets, lowering the planned intake. He also acknowledged that his government's immigration policies had been exploited by unscrupulous entities, such as fraudulent educational institutions and corporations, undermining the integrity of the system.

 

According to Dosanjh, Canada's stand on immigration may become more stringent if the Conservatives come to power. There is a resentment among the citizens over the increased population of immigrants, blaming them for intensified demand which has led to higher housing prices and reduced affordability for Canadians.

 

Dealing with Donald Trump administration

 

US President-elect Donald Trump has announced heavy tariffs on Canada for its "ridiculous open borders." He has even joked about making Canada the 51st state of the US, which he also reportedly told Trudeau when the latter met him last month at Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence.

 

According to Dosanjh, Canada may find it difficult to navigate with Trump, given the fact that Ottawa used to piggyback on the US on international relations. However, he said that Trudeau's resignation will have little impact on the US-Canada ties, even as Trump may view the new Liberal administration as weak.