Message for China in BLA's massive Balochistan attack? Here's what we know

Sunday night's wave of attacks in Balochistan is likely to add to the challenges Islamabad faces as it looks to revive its economy, which has faced a nearly two-year slump

The Balochistan Liberation Army's (BLA's) deadly attacks in Pakistan's restive southwestern province of Balochistan, which reportedly claimed 74 lives and included the targeted killings of workers from the country's Punjab province and members of security forces, carry with them a worrying message for China.

The BLA, a separatist group, has claimed responsibility for the attacks. In its statement, the group indicated that their targets included security forces and that they had gained control of several highways across Balochistan.

After the recent wave of violence, which saw militants linked to the banned BLA launch multiple attacks late Sunday night across Balochistan, Dawn quoted Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif as saying on Tuesday that the "sole aim" of the attackers, who he termed terrorists, was to stop "the journey of progress in Pakistan". Sharif cited the projects being undertaken under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) while making this statement.

 

Prime Minister Sharif also mentioned that the terrorists were seeking to "create distance between Pakistan and China".

His remarks came in the wake of armed gunmen launching a series of attacks in Balochistan on Sunday night and Monday morning, leaving nearly 74 people reportedly dead. Among the victims were at least 23 individuals, who were dragged out of their vehicles and executed after their identities as Punjabi migrant workers were confirmed.

The Pakistani Army has confirmed that across these attacks, 14 security personnel were killed. In retaliation, security forces reportedly killed "21 terrorists", according to a military statement.

What does this mean for China and CPEC?

Balochistan, Pakistan's largest province, has a population of about 15 million, out of the country's total of 240 million.

Balochistan is also home to Gwadar, a deep-sea port that serves as the centrepiece of the $60-billion CPEC project, which aims to create a trade link between southwestern China and the Arabian Sea and is part of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road initiative.

China, which has seen its CPEC interests and citizens working in Pakistan targeted in previous attacks, condemned the violence. "China is ready to further strengthen counter-terrorism security cooperation with the Pakistani side in order to jointly maintain regional peace and security," said Lin Jian, a spokesperson for China's foreign ministry, during a regular news briefing.

Beijing also pledged to "continue its firm support" for Pakistan in its counterterrorism efforts.

However, the latest wave of violence comes at a time when China is reportedly souring on committing to additional major investments in the CPEC project in the wake of repeated attacks on its interests and citizens in the country. In particular, militants have consistently targeted Gwadar, Balochistan’s deepwater port, which is managed by China.

In June, Prime Minister Sharif reportedly left China nearly empty handed after finishing a five-day official visit, with Beijing pouring cold water on Islamabad's hopes that it would commit to another round of major investments in Pakistan, especially through a revival of the CPEC project.

Back then, Nikkei Asia had reported that Pakistan was only able to secure some modest gains, despite meetings between Sharif and his entourage of Cabinet ministers and Chinese President Xi and top Chinese officials.

In fact, according to experts quoted by Nikkei Asia, Beijing's lukewarm response was likely to become the new normal, especially since the security situation in Pakistan continued to be one of the major challenges for CPEC.

Pakistan's failure to secure a substantial revival of CPEC came despite Islamabad committing to ensuring the safety of Chinese workers and projects in Pakistan after a string of deadly militant attacks.

Pakistan's reassurance came after it was reported that Beijing was not impressed with Islamabad's efforts to protect Chinese nationals working in Pakistan, despite Pakistani law-enforcement agencies completing the investigation into the Dasu terrorist attack.

The attack, carried out by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in March, killed five Chinese nationals.

The latest wave of violence is only likely to make China even more apprehensive about further investments in Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan.

What does this mean for Pakistan?

China's reported reluctance to invest in new CPEC schemes has also forced the Pakistani government's hand, with Islamabad approving a reinvigorated national counter-terrorism campaign in June.

After Pakistan approved the "reinvigorated and re-energised" national counter-terrorism campaign, called 'Operation Azm-i-Istehkam', an editorial published by Dawn hinted at the real reason behind the move: China's (security) concerns "should not be taken lightly by Pakistan's ruling elite", especially when the country "needs all the foreign investment it can get".

Sunday night's attacks are likely to add to the challenges Islamabad faces as it looks to revive its economy, which has faced a nearly two-year slump amid continuing political volatility.

This challenge becomes even more evident because Balochistan is abundant in natural resources, including large reserves of oil, coal, gold, copper, and gas, which generate significant revenue for Pakistan's federal government. However, Balochistan, itself, remains the most impoverished region in the country.

Support for separatism in Balochistan is also fuelled by accusations that the Pakistani state has systematically neglected the needs of the people of the province, while continuing to exploit their resources.

Speaking to Al Jazeera after Sunday night's attacks, US-based Balochistan expert Malik Siraj Akbar said that Baloch separatists are "strongly opposed to the exploration of gold, minerals, and coal" in the province, adding that they view these activities as "the exploitation of Balochistan's resources" without benefiting the local population.

Akbar added that this narrative has helped to boost public support for their cause.

Even though Balochistan has long been plagued by an armed separatist movement, Sunday night's attacks represent a marked escalation in violence in the region, with the scale of the recent bloodshed being unprecedented, even after accounting for the frequent clashes between militants and security forces. Moreover, this year has already seen numerous attacks in Balochistan targeting law enforcement, state infrastructure, and civilians.

In March, the Gwadar Port Authority Complex, located in Balochistan, was also attacked. The complex is located at the centre of Gwadar city and houses several offices related to the Gwadar Port Authority, law enforcement agencies, and staff houses.

The deliberate targeting of workers from the Punjab province -- Pakistan's wealthiest -- also appears to be part of a growing pattern, with Baloch separatists sending the message that outsiders are not welcome in Balochistan.

In April, nine passengers were pulled from a bus near the Noshki city in Balochistan and executed after their identity cards were checked by the gunmen.

In October last year, unidentified assailants fatally shot six labourers from Punjab in Balochistan's Turbat.

In 2019, gunmen intercepted a bus near Ormara in Gwadar district, killing 14 people, including personnel from Pakistan's Navy, Air Force, and Coast Guard, after verifying their national identity cards.

Akbar told Al Jazeera that besides the Chinese, Baloch separatists have also been targeting security forces, labourers from Pakistani Punjab, and workers involved in development projects, with the aim of discouraging these groups from coming to Balochistan.

For nearly two decades now, Baloch armed groups have waged a persistent struggle against the Pakistani state. In response, Pakistan has launched a crackdown that has resulted in the deaths and disappearances of thousands of ethnic Baloch.

In 2023, Balochistan accounted for 23 per cent of the over 650 attacks across Pakistan, according to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies. The attacks in Balochistan resulted in 286 deaths.