Pakistan ISI in North East? Bangladesh visa policy shift poses challenges

Northeast extremist groups have a history of launching hit-and-run attacks in India from bases in Bangladesh, allegedly with support from Pakistan's ISI and Bangladeshi intelligence agencies

The recent removal of the security clearance requirement for Pakistani citizens applying for Bangladeshi visas could present new security challenges for India's North East, particularly amid concerns that extremist groups in the region may exploit the evolving political situation in Bangladesh.

 

Bangladesh's interim government announced on December 2 that Pakistani citizens no longer need to obtain a 'no objection' clearance from the Security Services Division (SSD) of the Ministry of Home Affairs before being granted a visa, ThePrint reported on Wednesday. This policy, introduced in 2019 amid broader security measures, was reportedly lifted just a day before Pakistan's high commissioner to Bangladesh, Syed Ahmed Maroof, met Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Khaleda Zia in Dhaka. Zia has served as Bangladesh's prime minister for multiple terms. 

 

 

Zia's party has historically maintained closer ties with Pakistan, unlike the pro-India policies of the Awami League under Sheikh Hasina. Zia's political stance, along with her late husband and former president Ziaur Rahman's policies, has often leaned towards fostering ties with Islamabad, raising concerns about a potential realignment in Bangladesh's political and diplomatic outlook.

 

What are India's concerns about Bangladesh's visa move?

 

Since former Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina's ouster in August, Indian security officials have reportedly been on alert, particularly in Assam and other northeastern states.

 

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, in August, expressed concerns over the potential resurgence of extremist groups in the region due to the unstable political situation in Bangladesh following the violent fall of Hasina's government.

 

According to The Hindu, Sarma indicated that the unrest in Bangladesh could lead to the displacement of people, particularly religious minorities, many of whom might attempt to cross into India. He also suggested that extremist outfits in the North East could exploit the situation to re-establish bases in Bangladesh. 

 

He also highlighted the significant role played by Sheikh Hasina in uprooting such groups from Bangladeshi territory during her tenure as prime minister.

 

Except for a few, like the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) led by fugitive Paresh Baruah and Meghalaya's Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council, most extremist groups in the northeast have been disbanded or are engaged in talks.

 

Mizoram's Laldenga and his Mizo National Front set a precedent, with many extremist groups from the northeast previously launching hit-and-run operations in India from bases in Bangladesh. According to an August report by The Hindu, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Bangladesh’s Directorate General of Forces Intelligence allegedly facilitated the establishment of these hideouts.

 

In this context, the Bangladesh interim government's decision to eliminate the requirement for Pakistani citizens to obtain a security clearance before applying for a visa could raise security concerns in New Delhi regarding the North East. 

 

In 1991, the ULFA set up camps in Dhaka, Satcherri, and Sherpur in Bangladesh, establishing strong ties with the pro-Pakistan BNP led by Zia, while also maintaining connections with other political entities, including the pro-India Awami League.

 

The Awami League initially refrained from acting against the ULFA. However, after coming to power in 2009, it adopted a firm stance against all extremist groups from the northeast, forcing the dismantling of their networks. Leaders and members of these groups were either expelled from Bangladesh or handed over to Indian authorities.

 

A significant confirmation of the NSCN (I-M) faction's activities in Bangladesh came in October 2009, when five members were captured by the Border Security Force in Tripura's Kailasahar area after crossing into India. These individuals had fled from their camp in Bangladesh's Moulvi Bazar district following an internal conflict where they killed six fellow NSCN (I-M) members.

 

While Hasina's government drove out or handed over most extremists after 2009, experts reportedly fear that political instability under the interim government and a potential BNP return to power could reverse these gains. Notably, the BNP has historically maintained closer ties with ULFA and other northeastern extremist groups.

 

What does this mean for India-Bangladesh ties?

 

This policy shift comes at a time when relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan appear to be thawing. In November, a Pakistani cargo ship docked at Chittagong Port for the first time since 1971, signalling a notable development in economic and diplomatic ties. Pakistan's high commissioner has also held discussions with Bangladesh's interim government, including on resolving issues stemming from the 1971 Liberation War.

 

While Bangladeshi officials have stated their intent to maintain friendly relations with India, the shift in visa policy and warming ties with Pakistan signal a possible recalibration in Dhaka's approach to regional politics. Indian policymakers and security officials will likely watch these developments closely, given the potential repercussions for both bilateral relations and security in the North East.