Putin, US on same page: Iran's Israel attack may not be as severe as feared

Blaming Israel for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran, Iran had vowed it would respond 'severely', raising fears of a broader regional conflict

White House officials believe that the United States' (US') diplomatic efforts to temper Iran's retaliation after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh's assassination, which Tehran blames on Israel, could be working, The Washington Post has reported.

Fears of a regional war have increased sharply after Iran threatened to "punish" Israel for Haniyeh's killing, with Tehran warning that its response will be harsher than its attack on April 13-14. For its part, Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for killing Haniyeh. Adding to the tensions, Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah has also threatened a response to Israel's killing of its top commander, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut.

 

Why Iran may rethink its plans to attack Israel

According to the Washington Post report, Tehran may rethink its plans for attacking Israel after the US hurriedly deployed its military forces to the region and warned Iran of serious consequences for President Masoud Pezeshkian's new government.

Speaking to the US publication, a senior official from US President Joe Biden's administration said that Tehran understands clearly that the US is "unwavering in its defence" of its interests, partners and people. "We have moved a significant amount of military assets to the region to underscore that principle," added the official.

While Iran initially claimed that an Israeli missile fired from nearby was responsible for killing Haniyeh in a Tehran guesthouse, Biden officials reportedly said that the Iranian government had privately accepted that a bomb placed in his room led to his death. According to the report, this fact could also change Iran's plans for a harsh response.

However, White House officials still cautioned that the Iran-backed Hezbollah remained a "wild card".

Putin also cautions Iran

Russian President Vladimir Putin has also asked Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for a restrained response against Israel and advised against attacking Israeli civilians, Reuters has reported, citing two senior Iranian sources.

According to the sources cited by the news agency, Putin's message was delivered to Iran on Monday by Sergei Shoigu, a senior ally of the Russian President, during meetings with top Iranian officials.

While Reuters reported that the Kremlin had not responded to a request for comment, Russian state-run RIA news agency reported on Tuesday that Shoigu had indeed discussed Haniyeh's killing during his visit to Tehran.

The Iranian sources also told Reuters that in a bid to prevent a wider West Asia (Middle East) war, Shoigu's visit was only one of the several avenues that Moscow had employed to relay the need for restraint to Tehran, while condemning Haniyeh's killing as "a very dangerous assassination" at the same time.

However, there was no immediate comment from Iran's foreign ministry on the matter. On Monday, Tehran had said that while it did not seek to raise regional tensions, it still needed to punish Israel to prevent more instability.

Threat of West Asia war still looming

Despite reports that Iran could temper, or even rethink, its attack on Israel, tensions have been high in the region after last week's back-to-back assassinations of Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shukr in an Israeli strike in Beirut and Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran had immediately blamed Israel for Haniyeh's death and vowed retaliation.

A US official in Washington had reportedly warned on Monday of the risks of a major regional conflict. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official had emphasised that the scale of Iran and Hezbollah's response would determine the extent of a potential conflict.

In fact, despite efforts by Western and regional countries to persuade Iran to opt for a measured retaliation, or not at all, Iranian sources had reportedly confirmed that Tehran had told foreign officials that it would respond "severely" to Haniyeh's killing.

Meanwhile, the Times of Israel had reported that Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warned on Monday that Israel must be prepared for any eventuality, including a swift transition to offensive actions.

According to sources familiar with Israeli assessments, the country's response to an attack by Iran or Hezbollah would likely depend on the damage caused, instead of the attack's scale.

Shortly after the war in Gaza began when Hamas led a cross-border attack on Israel on October 7, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage, and Israel responded with a military offensive to destroy Hamas, Hezbollah also began attacking along Israel's border with Lebanon.

The near-daily drone and rocket strikes have drawn attacks by Israel in response. Hezbollah has also vowed revenge for the killing of its military chief, Shukr. Iran backs both Hamas and Hezbollah.

The region also came close to a wider conflict in April, when Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones at Israel in response to the killing of two senior generals in an attack in Damascus for which Tehran blamed Israel.

The wave of projectiles was intercepted by Israeli air defences, with help from a US-led coalition of regional forces and British and French warplanes. According to reports, intelligence provided by some Arab states also helped Israel counter the attack. However, a few missiles did make it through Israeli defences, seriously injuring a young girl and causing minor damage at an air base.

Over the weekend, however, an editorial in Iran's Kayhan pro-regime newspaper warned that compared to the April attack, Tehran's attack this time would target areas deep inside Israel, including Tel Aviv, Haifa, the homes of Israeli officials, and strategic centres.