'Turn to war at any time': What's behind China's Taiwan blockade drills?

China has also deployed its Liaoning aircraft carrier as part of its Joint Sword-2024B blockade drills around Taiwan, initiated during the early hours of Monday

China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) initiated blockade drills around Taiwan during the early hours of Monday, with its aircraft carrier, Liaoning, operating to the east of the island, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) has reported.

These military exercises by Beijing come shortly after its harsh response to a defiant speech by Taiwan's leader, William Lai Ching-te.

What is the purpose behind China's latest drills?

The Joint Sword-2024B drills are taking place to the north, south, and east of Taiwan, as well as in the Taiwan Strait -- a 180-kilometre-wide strait between the Chinese mainland and the island of Taiwan. Citing senior naval Captain Li Xi, a spokesperson for the PLA Eastern Theatre Command, the SCMP report said that the goal is to test the PLA's capability to carry out joint operations.

 

According to Li, the exercises are particularly focused on ensuring combat readiness for both sea and air patrols, alongside the capability to blockade strategic ports and other critical areas.

"This serves as a stern deterrence against Taiwan's independence forces," Li reportedly stated, adding, "It is a rightful and necessary operation to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity."

According to the report, Li also noted that the drills, which commenced at night, could swiftly transition into combat if required.

The drills were announced at 5 am (local time) on Monday, including night-time operations, as shown in footage aired by Chinese state broadcaster CCTV. The video depicted PLA troops mobilising at dawn, while an aircraft was seen taking off during the night.

The CCTV report highlighted that PLA fighter jets and bombers took off from various airports in southern mainland China, crossing the Taiwan Strait to approach the island for joint training exercises.

The PLA's Rocket Force, China's strategic missile force that oversees both nuclear and conventional missiles, was also reported to have moved into operational areas "overnight" and completed launch preparations, subsequently conducting simulated strikes on designated targets.

The SCMP report noted that simultaneously, China's coastguard also announced the deployment of four fleets to patrol around Taiwan.

Citing an announcement, the report said that China's Fujian provincial coastguard indicated that its patrols would focus on areas near the Dongyin and Matsu islands -- strategically important Taiwanese outposts located near the Chinese mainland -- concentrating on tasks such as "verification, boarding inspections, and control and expulsion drills". The aim was to assess rapid response and emergency handling capabilities, according to the statement.

Why has China launched the latest drills targeting Taiwan?

This exercise comes just four days after Taiwanese leader Lai's "Double Tenth" speech on Thursday, where he stated that both sides of the strait "are not subordinate to each other" and that Beijing had no right to represent Taiwan.

Double Tenth Day, commemorated on October 10, marks the anniversary of the 1911 revolution that overthrew the Qing dynasty and led to the founding of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Taiwan has celebrated the day since 1949, with the leader's speech often seen as an opportunity to convey messages regarding cross-strait relations to both Beijing and the international community.

In his recent address, Lai emphasised that both sides should be treated as equals, while reaffirming his commitment to peace across the Taiwan Strait.

How has Taiwan reacted to Chinese drills?

Taiwan's defence ministry reportedly issued a statement condemning the PLA's provocative actions, declaring that appropriate forces would be deployed to safeguard the island.

In an X (formerly Twitter) post on Monday morning, the ministry reported detecting 25 PLA aircraft, seven People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels, and four official Chinese ships operating around Taiwan as of 8 am (local time), with 16 of the aircraft crossing the median line and entering Taiwan's southwestern and eastern air defence identification zones.

How has the US reacted to China's latest drills?

The United States (US) has voiced serious concern over these developments. In a press release, Matthew Miller, the US Department of State spokesperson, condemned the PLA's actions as "unwarranted" and cautioned that they "risk escalation".

Miller also urged Beijing to exercise restraint, emphasising the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the surrounding region.

However, he also reiterated the US' commitment to its one-China policy.

Where is China's Liaoning aircraft carrier?

Citing a Sunday report by Taiwan's defence ministry, the SCMP said that PLAN's Liaoning aircraft carrier had sailed through waters near the Bashi Channel, a waterway between the Mavulis Island of the Philippines and Orchid Island of Taiwan, heading towards the Western Pacific.

Lin Ying-yu, an expert in international relations and strategic studies at Tamkang University in New Taipei, told SCMP that one purpose of these drills was to evaluate the Liaoning after its extensive overhaul.

Citing the training role of Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong in the Western Pacific during the 2023 Joint Sword exercise, Lin said that the Liaoning was "following suit this time".

Stating that the Liaoning had faced criticism over its limited capacity to conduct continuous fighter jet take-offs and landings, Lin said that the PLA was hopeful that following a significant overhaul, the "Liaoning's combat capabilities will now be on par with the Shandong", enabling it to participate "in dual-carrier operations".

What about past Chinese drills targeting Taiwan?

In May, the PLA's Eastern Theatre Command conducted Joint Sword-2024A military drills three days after Taiwanese leader Lai's inauguration speech, which Beijing condemned as a declaration of independence.

The two-day exercise targeted what Beijing described as "Taiwan separatists" and was meant to serve as a warning to external forces.

There are indications, however, that the latest drill could be larger.

This time, the PLA is conducting drills across six zones surrounding Taiwan, the SCMP reported, citing a diagram released by CCTV.

While some of these zones overlap with areas used in the five-zone May exercises, new areas have reportedly been added in the Taiwan Strait, northeast of Keelung City, a major port city situated in the northeastern part of Taiwan, and near Taitung in southeastern Taiwan.

Beijing considers Taiwan a part of China and has vowed to reunite the island, using force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not officially recognise Taiwan as an independent state. However, Washington opposes any attempt to take Taiwan by force and remains committed to supplying the island with defensive weapons.

In an interview with state-run CCTV, Fu Zhengnan, a commentator from the PLA's Academy of Military Sciences, said that the recent drill conveys a clear message that Beijing will not tolerate any "gradual" moves towards Taiwan's independence, and that Taiwanese leader Lai's recent speech was "deceptive".