US presidential poll terms like 'electoral college', 'blue wall' explained

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump need at least 270 electoral votes to win, with Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin expected to be key battleground states

Americans on Tuesday headed to the polls to vote for the next President of the United States (US). 

 

President Joe Biden dropped out of the race as the Democratic Party candidate earlier this year, to be replaced by his Vice-President, Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, her opponent, the Republican Party candidate, former President Donald Trump, survived an assassination attempt during campaigning.  

 

Harris and Trump each need at least 270 electoral votes to win, with the battleground US states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin expected to be pivotal to their respective paths to victory.

 

But, what do these terms, like battleground/swing states or the electoral college, actually mean. Find out below: 

 

 

1) Electoral College 

 

The Electoral College consists of 538 electors who officially vote for the US president after the general public casts their votes. This process is stipulated in the US Constitution. Electors are selected by political parties in each of the 50 US states prior to the election. 

 

The number of Electoral College votes each state has varies, as it depends on the census. Each state's count is equal to its total congressional delegation: its senators plus representatives. Additionally, while the District of Columbia (Washington DC) is not a state, it receives three Electoral College votes. The total number of votes is 538, comprising 100 senators, 435 representatives, and three for DC. 

 

To win the US presidential election, a candidate must secure at least 270 Electoral College votes, which is more than half. 

 

Most states allocate all their Electoral College votes to a single candidate, except Maine and Nebraska, which distribute two votes to the statewide popular vote winner and one vote to the winner in each congressional district. 

 

Once the election is over, the winning party in each state has its electors vote for its candidate. This vote occurs several weeks after the November election, once states have certified their results, on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December. 

 

2) Popular Vote 

 

The popular vote represents the total count of votes from eligible voters for each candidate. Notably, winning the popular vote does not guarantee winning the presidency, as the US presidential election is decided by Electoral College votes. 

 

This is why the outcome depends on state-by-state races. For instance, in 2016, Donald Trump won the presidency despite receiving fewer votes than Hillary Clinton, as did George W Bush in 2000 when he received fewer votes than Al Gore. 

 

3) Path to Victory 

 

The path to victory describes the strategy a candidate follows to achieve 270 Electoral College votes. Rather than focusing on winning the popular vote, it prioritises securing Electoral College votes, often concentrating on swing states. Campaigns usually focus on both rust belt and sun belt states, which are vital due to their swing states and critical Electoral College votes. 

 

4) Red State, Blue State and Swing State  

 

A red state typically votes Republican, a blue state tends to vote Democrat, and a swing state alternates between the two parties in different elections.  

 

Swing states, also called battleground states, are where campaigns invest the most effort and funding, seeking to sway undecided or persuadable voters.  

 

This election's seven swing states, accounting for 93 Electoral College votes -- more than one-third of what is needed to win -- are Arizona (11 votes), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10).  

 

5) Rust Belt 

 

The rust belt is an economically defined region in the north-east and midwest of the US, where traditional industries like manufacturing have declined. It includes states like Michigan, once a hub of the automotive industry, and spans parts of the midwest -- Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin -- as well as Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and parts of New York. 

 

With three swing states in this region -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin -- the rust belt is strategically important in US elections. For example, winning the rust belt is a possible path to victory for Harris. Alternatively, the sun belt offers another route. Polls suggest that Trump, on the other hand, will need both regions to reach the 270 Electoral College votes required for a win. 

 

6) Sun Belt 

 

The sun belt spans 15 southern US states, from the south-west to the south-east, noted for their warmer climates. 

 

It includes four swing states: Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia, while the remaining three swing states are located in the rust belt. 

 

7) Bible Belt and Flyover States 

 

The Bible belt refers to southern states that are typically Christian and conservative, usually voting Republican. It includes Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia, and Oklahoma. 

 

Meanwhile, flyover states, also called flyover country or middle America, comprise the states in central America between the populous east and west coasts. Notably, nearly a third of Americans reside in only four states: California, Texas, Florida, and New York.  

 

8) Blue Wall 

 

The blue wall comprises states that typically voted for Democrats in presidential elections from 1992 to 2012. 

 

California, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin are generally part of the "blue wall". Of these, California is the largest, with 54 Electoral College votes, followed by New York with 28. 

 

However, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are top priorities for candidates in the 2024 US elections because Trump flipped these states to Republican in 2016, with Biden winning them back in 2020.  

 

9) Absentee Ballots or Mail-in Voting 

 

These ballots are cast by mail or in person, depending on state laws, before election day. Trump had previously advocated against mail-in voting because during the 2020 US presidential election, many Americans chose this option due to the Covid pandemic, with more Democrats than Republicans voting by mail. 

 

10) Provisional Ballots 

 

A provisional ballot is issued when a voter's name is absent from the voter registration list on election day. This ballot is placed in a separate envelope, and the voter's registration status is verified before the vote is counted if the voter is confirmed as registered. 

 

11) Canvassing and Certification 

 

Canvassing refers to counting ballots and compiling results, ensuring each vote is accounted for and the results are repeatedly verified. 

 

Certification follows canvassing, confirming the canvass is complete and accurate. This process requires county election officials to sign off on the results as an official record of every vote cast, grouped by precinct. 

 

Certification is mandated by law, leaving no option for officials to decline it, although some have refused in the past. While certification was traditionally viewed as a mere administrative step, concerns about refusals have grown, according to the Associated Press.