 "Chinese missile")
A computer simulation run by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) suggests that the Fire Dragon 480, a Chinese tactical ballistic missile that has been exported to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), could be capable of sinking the US Navy's Ticonderoga-class cruiser, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on Thursday.
According to the report, a May 15 peer-reviewed paper published in the Chinese-language academic journal Command Control & Simulation shows that an average of six such long-range guided rockets, in close coordination with a swarm of drones and using new tactics, would be capable of destroying a large US Navy warship.
The Fire Dragon 480's simulated performance gains significance given that while Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have been successfully targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, the group's attempts to target the US aircraft carrier strike group stationed in the region with ballistic missiles, drones, and anti-ship cruise missiles have failed to cause any significant damage to the US Navy.
What is the Fire Dragon 480?
According to the SCMP report, the Fire Dragon 480 is a Chinese long-range rocket, which is exclusively produced for export by the Norinco Group.
It is a tactical ballistic missile that is equipped with precision-guidance sensors, which enable it to strike moving targets with a high degree of accuracy.
More From This Section
SCMP quoted Li Jiangjiang, a PLA scientist, as writing in the paper: "Its warhead surpasses the 400 kg mark, significantly outweighing that of a conventional anti-ship missile."
According to the scientist, the Fire Dragon 480's impact velocity exceeds 500 metres (1,640 feet) per second, which he claims would ensure that a 10,000-tonne cruiser would be destroyed after being hit by "just two of these missiles".
According to the SCMP report, the only publicly disclosed record of the Fire Dragon 480 system being exported is a $245-million deal with the UAE.
While the Fire Dragon 480 missile's range is believed to be restricted to 290 km, the PLA scientist has written in the previously mentioned paper that its attack range can exceed 500 km in practical applications.
The missile can be launched from a high-speed, wheeled platform.
Why is PLA's Fire Dragon simulation result significant?
US warships are equipped with robust air and missile defence systems, which have successfully intercepted hostile projectiles in the past.
At present, the USS Dwight D Eisenhower aircraft carrier, along with its escort group, is patrolling the Red Sea. This escort group includes a Ticonderoga-class cruiser, the type of US warship used in the PLA simulation.
 "US Navy Ticonderoga class cruiser")
An overhead view of a US Navy Ticonderoga class cruiser. US Navy photo by Jayme Pastoric (Wikimedia Commons)
According to the PLA scientist's paper, a Ticonderoga-class cruiser is capable of firing over 200 air defence missiles.
During the PLA's military war game simulation, 12 Fire Dragon 480 missiles were reportedly launched at two American Ticonderoga-class cruisers.
The targeted US Navy cruisers responded by launching numerous air defence missiles and activating their Phalanx close-in weapon system.
Of the air defence missiles launched by the cruisers, the simulation found that the Standard 6 missile, with a range of 240 km, achieved a 71 pert cent hit rate against incoming projectiles. The shorter-range Sea Sparrow missile, however, achieved a 44 per cent hit rate.
The simulated engagement resulted in one of the US Navy cruisers sinking, according to the SCMP report.
However, the PLA simulation also involved an alternative scenario, where the warheads of eight of the Fire Dragon missiles were substituted with "swarm warheads", each containing six drones.
Upon closing in on the US Navy fleet, these modified missiles slowed down and released their drone swarms, which were meant to divert the US warships' air defence systems and provide a second wave of missiles with more precise target coordinates.
After numerous rounds of simulations under this tactic, the PLA scientists estimated that the survival rate of the two US Navy Ticonderoga-class cruisers would be close to zero.
However, the PLA study also said that for the Fire Dragon 480-drone swarms tactic to reach its full potential, the weapon system would need to receive technological upgrades, including strengthened data links between the missiles and the drones.
For its part, the US Navy is in the process of decommissioning its Ticonderoga-class cruisers, with the last one slated to be retired in 2027.
