Why Jaishankar sees India overcoming challenges in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh

Sri Lanka's new President, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, has been noted to have pro-China leanings, and his swearing in comes shortly after pro-India Sheikh Hasina's ouster from power in Bangladesh

External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar on Wednesday expressed his confidence that India's relations with its neighbours, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, would remain positive and constructive, despite the recent developments in the two nations.

"I would urge you not to be deterministic about it. It's not like India is seeking to control every political move of every neighbour," news agency PTI quoted Jaishankar as saying during an interaction at an event. "That's not how it works. It doesn't work, not just for us, it doesn't work for anybody else," Jaishankar added during the event titled 'India, Asia and the World', hosted by the Asia Society and the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York.

 

The minister was responding to a question that while India has given unconditional aid to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, the changes in government there appear to be potentially adverse for India.

"I'm very confident that in our neighbourhood, the realities of interdependence or mutual benefit and our ability to get along will serve both our interests," Jaishankar stated, adding, "Those realities will assert themselves. That's been the history."

Jaishankar further noted that every few years, some event occurs in the region, and people suggest there is an irretrievable situation. "You then see the correctives beginning to manifest themselves," he explained, adding, "So, I would take it in that spirit and am quite confident that in both these cases (Sri Lanka and Bangladesh), our relationship would continue to be positive and constructive."

These remarks were made in light of recent changes in the governments of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh -- Anura Kumara Dissanayake being sworn in as Sri Lanka's new President and Sheikh Hasina's removal from power in Bangladesh before that.

Why is Jaishankar optimistic about India-Sri Lanka ties?

Regarding Sri Lanka, Jaishankar highlighted that India had extended timely aid during Colombo's severe economic crisis of 2022.

Highlighting that India "stepped forward" when Colombo was facing a "very deep economic crisis", and when "nobody else came forward", Jaishankar said, "And I'm very glad we did it. We did it in a timely manner. We did it on a scale. We provided $4.5 billion, which effectively stabilised the Sri Lankan economy." Jaishankar added that this assistance was not tied to any political conditionality. "We were doing it as a good neighbour who did not want to see that kind of economic meltdown at our doorstep."

Jaishankar reiterated that political developments in Sri Lanka are matters for Sri Lanka to handle.

He also explained that each neighbouring country has its own unique dynamics, and it is not India's place to dictate them.

Marxist-leaning politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake, noted for his past pro-China inclinations, was sworn in as Sri Lanka's new President on Monday. This event has been closely monitored by India, especially in the wake of the removal of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh, sparking concerns that anti-India elements in the region could gain strength.

Dissanayake's win in Saturday's election, where he outperformed major candidates, including the incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Namal Rajapaksa, marks a significant shift in Sri Lanka's political landscape.

The election, which followed mass protests that led to Gotabaya Rajapaksa's removal in 2022, carried high stakes for New Delhi due to its major geopolitical and security interests in the Indian Ocean.

In Sri Lanka, India reportedly favoured the continuity that Ranil Wickremesinghe or the pro-India opposition leader Sajith Premadasa would have provided.

However, India chose to remain neutral in the Sri Lankan elections.

Indian media reports have highlighted Dissanayake's past pro-China leanings.

For example, Dissanayake recently attracted attention after announcing plans to cancel a 450 MW wind power project led by Gautam Adani's Adani Group.

But, the situation may not be as challenging as initially expected. In recent times, Dissanayake has signalled a willingness to engage with New Delhi, suggesting a potential shift in his stance.

During his campaign, Dissanayake assured that he would not allow Sri Lanka's territory, sea, or airspace to be used in ways that would threaten India or regional stability.

Despite the complexities of working with a relatively unknown leader, India’s assistance to Sri Lanka, including $4.5 billion in economic aid and support for debt restructuring, also provides a strong foundation for future relations.

New Delhi's recent outreach to Dissanayake is also expected to be advantageous. In February, Dissanayake visited New Delhi at the invitation of the Indian government.

Why is Jaishankar optimistic about India-Bangladesh ties?

In discussing Bangladesh, Jaishankar focused on the mutual economic benefit both nations have derived from stable ties.

"What we have done over the last decade is implement projects of various kinds that have been beneficial to both countries. Economic activity has increased, and the region’s logistics have improved," he said, noting that both nations have benefited significantly.

Under Hasina's leadership, Bangladesh was a stable partner, working with India to curtail anti-India terrorist groups. Since Hasina's rise to power in 2009, she played a pivotal role in maintaining this relationship.

However, Hasina resigned as Prime Minister and fled to India on August 5 following unprecedented student-led protests against her government. She was replaced by an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.

In an interview earlier this month, Jaishankar described Bangladesh's political turmoil as an "internal matter," while expressing India's desire to maintain its previously stable ties with the country.

Yunus, now heading Bangladesh's interim government, has also stated his intent to continue the positive relationship with India but emphasised that these relations must be based on "fairness and equality".

Hasina fled to India aboard a military aircraft and is reportedly under the protection of Indian intelligence agencies. Initially, there was speculation that she would seek asylum in London, but British regulations prevent entry for asylum seekers under such circumstances. Her continued stay in India, coupled with informal calls for her extradition, complicates New Delhi's efforts to maintain stable relations with Dhaka.

In a stern message, Chief Advisor Yunus has insisted that Hasina must remain silent while in India to avoid disrupting bilateral relations. "If India wants to keep her until Bangladesh wants her back, the condition would be that she has to keep quiet," he has asserted.