 "Ebrahim Raisi, Raisi, Ebrahim,Modi, Narendra Modi")
An Israeli official has reportedly said that Israel was not involved in the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who Iranian officials and state media on Monday said was killed in a helicopter crash that comes at a sensitive time for Tehran, which is engaged in proxy wars and facing turmoil on multiple fronts.
Reactions also poured in from various countries, including India, which have an interest in Iran. Countries including China, Russia, Iraq and Qatar made formal statements of concern about Raisi's fate.
A helicopter carrying Raisi and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, along with seven others, crashed on Sunday in a mountainous region of the country's northwest near the Azerbaijan border. The wreckage was found early on Monday after an hours-long search in foggy weather conditions. President Raisi and others were found dead at the site of the crash on Monday, state media reported. Raisi was 63.
Policy continuity likely in Iran
Declaring five days of national mourning following Raisi's death, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday said First Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber was now in charge of Iran's executive branch.
On Monday, Iran's three branches of government held an extraordinary meeting, Iranian news agencies reported. At the meeting, Mokhber reportedly said: "We will follow the path of President Raisi in fulfilling assigned duties without any interruption."
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If a president dies in office, Iran's constitution says that with approval of the supreme leader, the first vice-president takes over for a 50-day interim period. A new presidential election is then held at the end of those 50 days.
Raisi's death comes amid growing India-Iran ties
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday expressed shock and sadness at Iranian President Raisi's demise, while stating that his contribution in strengthening the India-Iran bilateral relationship would always be remembered.
"Deeply saddened and shocked by the tragic demise of Dr Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran," PM Modi said on X. "His contribution to strengthening India-Iran bilateral relationship will always be remembered. My heartfelt condolences to his family and the people of Iran. India stands with Iran in this time of sorrow," the prime minister added.
Raisi's death comes after India and Iran last week signed a long-term contract for the operation of the Shahid Beheshti Port terminal at Chabahar in Iran.
The 10-year bilateral contract, signed by India Ports Global Ltd and the Ports and Maritime Organisation of Iran, is likely to bring in an investment of approximately $370 million, comprising a direct investment of $120 million from India for infrastructure development and a $250 million line of credit to Iran. Moreover, the agreement can be extended by mutual consent.
The Chabahar Port offers India an alternative route for trade with land-locked Afghanistan and Central Asia -- with Pakistan denying India land access to these regions. It is also seen as a gateway for unlocking India's trade potential with Europe, since Chabahar is part of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project.
However, there have also been some irritants in the relationship. In Tehran for the signing of the 10-year contract to operate Chabahar, Ports, Shipping and Waterways Minister Sarbananda Sonowal had reportedly asked Iran to release nearly 40 Indian seafarers who were taken into Iranian custody on different charges.
Iran reportedly said that while it was positive about the release of the Indian seafarers, the process was getting delayed as legal procedures had to be followed.
The Indian seafarers had been working on four ships -- Steven, Global Cherylyn, Margol and MSC Aries -- which were seized by Iran over the past eight months on different charges.
Indian Ocean under threat from Houthi rebels
Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have been repeatedly targeting international shipping in the Red Sea and surrounding waters since November over the Israel-Hamas war, in what they claim is a blockade of Israel. However, these strikes have often targeted ships with no apparent links to Israel and led to US-led retaliation.
Due to these attacks, the situation has worsened around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial shipping route for traders connecting the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean. Shipping costs jumped as a result and consignments were taking longer to reach Europe and the US, with the ships taking the Cape of Good Hope route, encircling Africa. This has resulted in delays of up to 20 days and higher freight and insurance costs.
At the beginning of May, reports also emerged that the Houthis were extending their attacks on merchant shipping hundreds of miles out into the wider Indian Ocean, with international maritime experts warning of a new round of threats from Yemen after the April 26 Houthi drone strike against container vessel MSC Orion that occurred well beyond the Red Sea.
Iran-Israel tensions at an all-time high
Israel did not have a hand in Raisi's death, an Israeli official told Reuters on Monday.
Raisi's death comes shortly after tensions between Iran and Israel hit an all-time high in April, when Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles at Israel in response to a suspected Israeli attack on an Iranian Consulate in Syria that killed two Iranian generals and five officers.
With the help of the US, Britain, Jordan, and others, Israel intercepted nearly all the Iranian projectiles. In response, Israel launched its own strike against an air defense system in the Iranian city of Isfahan. While the strike did not cause any casualties, it was seen as Israel sending a message to Iran.
While Israel views Iran as its greatest threat because of Tehran's nuclear programme and support for armed groups targeting Israel, Iran views itself as the chief backer of Palestinian resistance to Israel. As a result, both countries have waged a shadow war, involving cyberattacks and covert operations, for years. However, the exchange of hostilities in April was their first direct military confrontation.
Meanwhile, the ongoing Israel-Hamas war has drawn in Iranian allies, leading to fears that the resulting attacks and counterattacks could lead to a wider regional war.
Impact of Raisi's death will be felt across West Asia
The impact of President Raisi's death could reverberate across West Asia (Middle East), given Iran's influence in the region.
Over the past decades, Iran has projected its power in the region by supporting militants and armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories.
Over the years, Tehran has provided financial and other support to the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which led the October 7 attack on Israel that triggered the ongoing Gaza war. Iran has also backed a smaller but more radical group, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which also took part in the October attack.
While there is no evidence that Iran was directly involved in the attack, Iranian leaders have expressed solidarity with the Palestinians since the start of the Gaza war.
However, Tehran's allies have been involved in the hostilities, with Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group, an Iranian proxy, engaged in a low-intensity conflict with Israel since the Gaza war began.
Israeli forces and Hezbollah have traded blows along the Israel-Lebanon border on a near-daily basis.
Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria had launched repeated attacks on American bases in the region in the initial months of the Gaza war. However, these attacks ceased after US retaliatory strikes for the death of three American soldiers in a January drone strike.
Iran has also had strained ties with the Arab countries on the Persian Gulf, which have long viewed Iran with suspicion. This was one of the factors behind the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain normalising their relations with Israel in 2020. Saudi Arabia has considered a similar move for the same reason.
Nuclear weapons and exploding drones
Western countries, led by the US, and Israel suspect that Iran has been pursuing nuclear weapons under the guise of a peaceful nuclear energy programme. They view Iran to be a threat to global non-proliferation. For its part, Tehran has always maintained that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes.
After then US President Donald Trump withdrew from a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers in 2018, and imposed sanctions on Tehran, Iran gradually abandoned all the limits placed on its nuclear programme under the pact.
Recent reports say that Iran is now enriching uranium to up to 60 per cent purity, which is close to the weapons-grade level of 90 per cent.
Israel, meanwhile, is West Asia's only nuclear-armed power, but it does not acknowledge having such weapons.
Having emerged as a key ally of Russia following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Iran has also been accused of providing Russian forces with kamikaze drones that have been used against Ukraine's cities.
(With inputs from Dhruvaksh Saha, the Associated Press and agencies)
