Why Sheikh Hasina may not go to the UK and what's next for her and India

Mixed reports have emerged about New Delhi's level of support for a long stay by ousted Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who resigned and fled her country amid a mass uprising

Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled Dhaka and landed in India on Monday, is likely to remain in the country for "a while" after her plan to travel to the United Kingdom (UK) faced a "technical roadblock", The Indian Express reported on Wednesday, citing sources.

Initially, Sheikh Hasina had planned to travel to London and seek asylum as her sister Sheikh Rehana's daughter, Tulip Siddiq, is a member of the British Parliament. Siddiq is also the economic secretary to the Treasury in the new Labour government and a Labour MP for Hampstead and Highgate.

After Hasina, 76, arrived at the Hindon Air Force station near Delhi on Monday with her younger sister, Sheikh Rehana, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and other top officials met her. Hasina is reportedly staying at a "safe house" at present. She fled Bangladesh amid a mass uprising that left hundreds of people dead.

 

Will India give Sheikh Hasina refuge?

Citing sources, the Indian Express report said that New Delhi is preparing plans to host Sheikh Hasina in India for "as long as it takes".

The crux of the conversations between Sheikh Hasina, New Delhi and London over the past 24 hours is that for the time being, her best option is to stay in India where she is "safe", added the report.

According to the report, while New Delhi does not have a stated asylum policy, and despite Sheikh Hasina's unpopularity in Dhaka at present, there is no ambiguity regarding how to treat her. Sources told the national daily that New Delhi would not abandon her at this time of crisis.
  

After she was forced to flee her country with just some essentials, New Delhi is reportedly clear about offering Sheikh Hasina refuge. One source went as far as to say that India was her "second home".

The primary reason being that New Delhi sees Sheikh Hasina as someone who helped India bring stability to its borders with Bangladesh as she cracked down on anti-India terror groups in her country. India viewed her as a reliable and strategic partner given her record of countering terrorism and religious extremism.

Another reason for New Delhi's support, as pointed out by officials to the national daily, is the history of Sheikh Hasina's family.

On August 15, 1975, her father, Bangladesh's founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, along with several members of his family, was assassinated in a coup in Dhaka. Sheikh Hasina escaped since she was in Germany at that time, along with her sister, Sheikh Rehana. After the coup, Sheikh Hasina came to India and lived in Delhi's Pandara Road, after the Indian government gave her shelter.

Where will Hasina live if her stay in India is extended?

Despite the fast-paced developments in Dhaka putting New Delhi in a tight spot, the report said that the government has decided to give Sheikh Hasina time and space to make a decision regarding how long she wants to stay in India and her eventual destination.

If Hasina opts to stay for an extended period, she will be housed at an appropriate place, where she will have the highest level of security. According to the report, plans are already being formulated for this.

However, it added that the government is yet to take a call on whether Hasina will be accommodated at a "safe house" maintained by India's intelligence agencies or at a place in the capital's high security areas, where she will be in public sight.

All these options are being discussed by the Ministry of External Affairs, Ministry of Home Affairs, Ministry of Defence, and intelligence services, with sources cautioning the national daily that the ongoing discussions are "fluid" because the situation is "highly dynamic".

Why giving Sheikh Hasina refuge could put India in a tight spot?

New Delhi's options, however, are complicated by the need to secure its interests in Bangladesh under whichever new dispensation eventually takes over.

After it became clear on Tuesday that Hasina might have to stay in India for days, if not longer, the Times of India said that New Delhi was tight-lipped about how long it could allow her to stay, with the national daily's report painting a more worrisome picture of the former Bangladesh prime minister's future options in India.

According to the report, the UK had effectively ruled out granting asylum to Hasina and she was said to be exploring other options, including the United States (US) and Finland.

The report highlighted that Foreign Minister S Jaishankar has informed Parliament that Hasina had sought permission to come to India only "for the moment". Jaishankar also told the all-party meeting on Tuesday that Hasina was in shock at the turn of events, adding that New Delhi would discuss her future course of action with her once she settled down.

According to the report, New Delhi's main concern was that Hasina's opponents in Dhaka, with whom it will have to work, could use her extended stay in the country to raise doubts about India's intentions.

What is the UK saying about Hasina's bid for asylum?

According to the Indian Express report, the "technical" challenge to Hasina's plans to travel to the UK comes from the country's immigration rules, which do not have a provision allowing a person to travel to the UK to seek asylum or temporary refuge. It is also not possible for a person to apply for asylum from outside the UK.

Additionally, even after an asylum request is made, each claim is carefully considered on its individual merits on a case-by-case basis.

In fact, the Times of India report said that a UK Home Office source strongly hinted that Hasina should apply for asylum in India. UK Home Office sources also told the national daily that people who need international protection should apply for asylum "in the first safe country they reach", adding that that "is the fastest route to safety".

While the Indian Express has reported that Hasina has been in touch with the British government, the Times of India report said that her son, Sajeeb Wazed, has confirmed that she hasn’t officially approached British authorities yet.

Meanwhile, the UK appears to have made its position clear with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy's statement on Monday. "The people of Bangladesh deserve a full and independent UN-led investigation into the events of the past few weeks. The UK wants to see action taken to ensure Bangladesh a peaceful and democratic future. The UK and Bangladesh have deep people-to-people links and shared Commonwealth values," Lammy said on Monday. At that time, there was no mention whatsoever of the UK considering or granting asylum to Hasina.

However, Rehana holds British citizenship and already has political asylum in the UK as she took refuge there after her father's assassination in 1975.

Still, there could be other options that Hasina could explore. As explained by the Times of India report, the UK can grant other forms of humanitarian protection if the Home Office decides that the concerned person needs protection despite not meeting the criteria for refugee status. Hasina has the option of applying for discretionary leave outside of the UK's immigration rules.

What's next for India in Bangladesh?

New Delhi has said that it wants its diplomatic missions in Bangladesh to function normally once law and order are restored, reported the Times of India.

Across the border, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, a longtime political opponent of Hasina, will reportedly head Bangladesh's interim government.

An economist and banker, Yunus was awarded the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize for his work in the field of microcredit markets. Yunus has been credited for bringing thousands out of poverty through the Grameen Bank, which he founded in 1983. The Grameen Bank provides small loans to businesspeople who wouldn't otherwise qualify for regular bank loans.

With other members of the new government still to be decided, Bangladesh's President dissolved Parliament on Tuesday. This cleared the way for an interim government, and, in the future, new elections.

The President has also ordered the release of Opposition leader Khaleda Zia, a longtime Hasina rival, from house arrest.

In the coming days, New Delhi will be looking for stability in Bangladesh and monitoring the situation with regard to minorities and Indian nationals still in the country. New Delhi will also be keen to ensure that anti-India elements, religious extremists, and terror outfits do not take advantage of the upheaval there.